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29175 Northwestern Hwy. 358-2333
s Prime Minister Yitzhak
Shamir on course for
some unpleasant sur-
prises when he visits the
United States next month?
Has the special relationship
that was forged during the
Reagan era been undermined
by the burgeoning U.S.-Soviet
entente?
And has the U.S.-PLO
dialogue opened a serious rift
between Israel and its super-
power ally?
What, in short, is the state
of relations between the new
administrations in
Washington and Jerusalem?
As Prime Minister Yitzhak
Shamir prepares for his first
encounter with the Bush ad-
ministration, Israeli analysts
are cautiously revising their
earlier gloomy prognosis.
Washington and Jerusalem,
they say, are not necessarily
set on an unavoidable colli-
sion course over the Middle
East peace process — not yet,
at least.
"A confrontation is likely
sooner or later," according to
one senior political source in
Jerusalem at the weekend,
"but we now believe it will
come later rather than
sooner."
Confirmation of the status
quo in relations was provided
by Israel's Cabinet Secretary
Elyakim Rubinstein follow-
ing a visit to Washington last
week.
"I met with many in-
dividuals in the senior
echelon of the administra-
tion," he said, "and I did not
see any new faces. They were
all the same people we work-
ed with in the past."
Nor did he believe that a
joint U.S.-Soviet initiative on
the Middle East was immi-
nent. Rather, he intimated,
the Bush administration was
anxious to develop a joint
U.S.-Israel peace initiative:
"They expect to act together
with us," he said.
According to the analysts,
there are clear signs that the
Bush administration is more
skeptical than its predecessor
of both the benign intentions
of Mikhail Gorbachev's Soviet
Union and Moscow's preten-
sions to being an honest
broker in the Arab-Israeli
conflict.
To be sure, Washington re-
mains profoundly concerned
about the ongoing intifada
and the consequent human
rights abuses by Israel.
It is also deeply troubled by
the possible regional implica-
tions of the heightened ten-
sions which flow from the
Palestinian uprising, par-
ticularly in the aftermath of
the Gulf War, which has
allowed some of Israel's most
implacable enemies to return
their attention to the "corn-
mon enemy."
Nevertheless, according to
Israeli analysts, the new
Bush administration is un-
willing simply to accept that
all the old superpower
rivalries are dead and to
sacrifice its alliance with
Jerusalem on the altar of
superpoWer goodwill.
The evolving U.S. position,
however, is dictated by much
more than sentiment for
Israel and suspicion of
Moscow. Of overriding impor-
tance to Washington is the
new strategic reality which is
challenging both superpowers
— and subtly changing the
role of their regional allies.
Dr. Dore Gold, a specialist
.
"In an era of
superpower arms
control on the
continent of
Europe, the
Mediterranean may
have rising
importance."
on U.S. policy in the Middle
East at Tel Aviv University's
Center for Strategic Studies,
believes that the much-
vaunted INF treaty, symbol of
the new U.S.-Soviet entente,
has radically changed the
traditional concept of
alliances.
While the treaty effectively
eliminates intermediate
range nuclear weapons in
continental Europe, he
believes it could actually ex-
acerbate superpower rivalry
in the Middle East and, con-
comitantly, enhance strategic
cooperation between the
superpowers and their
regional allies.
He notes, while the treaty
forbids only land-based
nuclear missiles with a range
of 500 to 5,000 kilometers, it
does not restrict the de-
ployment of such weapons at
sea or in the air.
For the superpowers,
therefore, the top priority is
no longer for military allies
which will simply add muscle
to their existing power; the
demand now is for reliable
strategic allies which can pro-
vide sophisticated air bases
and naval facilities.