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Has the special relationship that was forged during the Reagan era been undermined by the burgeoning U.S.-Soviet entente? And has the U.S.-PLO dialogue opened a serious rift between Israel and its super- power ally? What, in short, is the state of relations between the new administrations in Washington and Jerusalem? As Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir prepares for his first encounter with the Bush ad- ministration, Israeli analysts are cautiously revising their earlier gloomy prognosis. Washington and Jerusalem, they say, are not necessarily set on an unavoidable colli- sion course over the Middle East peace process — not yet, at least. "A confrontation is likely sooner or later," according to one senior political source in Jerusalem at the weekend, "but we now believe it will come later rather than sooner." Confirmation of the status quo in relations was provided by Israel's Cabinet Secretary Elyakim Rubinstein follow- ing a visit to Washington last week. "I met with many in- dividuals in the senior echelon of the administra- tion," he said, "and I did not see any new faces. They were all the same people we work- ed with in the past." Nor did he believe that a joint U.S.-Soviet initiative on the Middle East was immi- nent. Rather, he intimated, the Bush administration was anxious to develop a joint U.S.-Israel peace initiative: "They expect to act together with us," he said. According to the analysts, there are clear signs that the Bush administration is more skeptical than its predecessor of both the benign intentions of Mikhail Gorbachev's Soviet Union and Moscow's preten- sions to being an honest broker in the Arab-Israeli conflict. To be sure, Washington re- mains profoundly concerned about the ongoing intifada and the consequent human rights abuses by Israel. It is also deeply troubled by the possible regional implica- tions of the heightened ten- sions which flow from the Palestinian uprising, par- ticularly in the aftermath of the Gulf War, which has allowed some of Israel's most implacable enemies to return their attention to the "corn- mon enemy." Nevertheless, according to Israeli analysts, the new Bush administration is un- willing simply to accept that all the old superpower rivalries are dead and to sacrifice its alliance with Jerusalem on the altar of superpoWer goodwill. The evolving U.S. position, however, is dictated by much more than sentiment for Israel and suspicion of Moscow. Of overriding impor- tance to Washington is the new strategic reality which is challenging both superpowers — and subtly changing the role of their regional allies. Dr. Dore Gold, a specialist . "In an era of superpower arms control on the continent of Europe, the Mediterranean may have rising importance." on U.S. policy in the Middle East at Tel Aviv University's Center for Strategic Studies, believes that the much- vaunted INF treaty, symbol of the new U.S.-Soviet entente, has radically changed the traditional concept of alliances. While the treaty effectively eliminates intermediate range nuclear weapons in continental Europe, he believes it could actually ex- acerbate superpower rivalry in the Middle East and, con- comitantly, enhance strategic cooperation between the superpowers and their regional allies. He notes, while the treaty forbids only land-based nuclear missiles with a range of 500 to 5,000 kilometers, it does not restrict the de- ployment of such weapons at sea or in the air. For the superpowers, therefore, the top priority is no longer for military allies which will simply add muscle to their existing power; the demand now is for reliable strategic allies which can pro- vide sophisticated air bases and naval facilities.