Page 2-Thursday, March 15, 1979-The Michigan Daily
'U' ECONOMISTS MAKE GLOOMY FORECAST
'Near recession' expected
injustice on West Bank
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By TIMOTHY YAGLE
University economists predict "near
recession" conditions with low
economic growth and high inflation for
the remainder of 1979, but don't
discount the possibility of an upturn
late in the year.
SProfessors Saul Hymans and Harold
Shapiro, in an update released yester-
day of a forecast made last November
at the University's annual Conference
of the Economic Outlook, said they ex-
pect "essentially zero growth of the
real GNP" during the middle two-
quarters of 1979. This, they said, will be
followed by a pick-up in growth "at
year-end and continuing4nto4980."
BASED ON THE Michigan model of
the U.S. economy, the professors'
forecast predicts that the growth of real
GNP in 1979 will be just under one per
cent. The President's Council \ of
Economic Advisers (CEA), however,
estimates a two-and-one-half per cent
growth rate of real GNP for the year,
beginning the fourth quarter of 1978.
Hymans and Shapiro expect the
unemployment rate at the year's end to
be six-and-two-thirds per cent and
rising. In addition, they said it is likely
that "any substantial slowdown in the
overall rate of inflation will become
evident much before the closing months
The forecast by the two professors,
who were assisted by researcher Joan
Porter, assumes several conditions in-
e Projected increases in fuel, oil, and
" Inflationary pressure from the farm
" A tight money policy adopted by the
Federal Reserve Board to continue at
least through the first half of 1979 and to
ease midway through the third quarter
of the year;
" No new tax cuts; and
" A $47 billion increase in federal ex-
penditures and a six per cent annual in-
crease in the export rate.
"Our forecast is clearly a good deal
more bearish than the CEA's on the
outlook for private investment, par-
ticularly home-building," the
"SINCE THE slowdown in the
national economy is concentrated in the
auto and business fixed investments
sectors," the professors stated, "it is
expected that there will be a dispropor-
tionate effect on the Michigan economy
with its concentration in durable goods
Manufacturing employment will
decline by 5.1 per cent by 1980, Hymans
and Shapiro predicted. The turnaround
will begin with the upswing in car sales
expected in late 1979, they said.
The economists say the near-
recession they are forecasting will be
evidenced by a decline in the housing
market and new car sales, a
progressive weakening in business
capital purchases, and a steadyin-
crease in the u~nemployment rate that
will peak just over seven per cent in
THE ECONOMISTS expect the
money supply to grow at a rate below
eight per cent during the first half of
1979 and accelerate to about 10 per cent
in 1980, "following the easing of the
monetary policy beginning late this
According to the report, if the federal
government continues to pursue a
restrictive monetary policy beyond
mid-year, the outlook will be altered.
Hymans and Shapiro would then expect
a longer period of low GNP growth and
an economy vulnerable to a recession.
The most dangerous effect on
Michigan of a long continuation of
restrictive monetary policy is that it
would harm the critical sectors of our
economy - autos, construction and
business investment - which are
crucial to a turnaround in the Michigan
economy, the economists concluded.
BY STEVE HOOK
PHilip Farah, an educator who has
spent the last six years teaching in the
West Bank, last night told a group in the
Michigan Union that the "whole
existence" of the Palestinian people
there is threatened.
Speaking to nearly thirty people, he
said there is harassment and
repression by Israeli citizens in the
"DEFENSE LAWS of Israel touch
almost every area of life on the West
Bank," he said. "Social, political,
economic, and educational life of the
Palestinians is almost completely un-
der Israeli control."
Farah, 26, presently works in
Chicago, awaiting a position in the
public school system as a bilingual in-
structor. Before coming to Chicago, he
spent a year teaching at Bir Zeit
University on the West Bank. From
1973 to 1977, he taught at other schools
in the area.
During this time, Farah said he wit-
nessed, and was the victim of, exten-
sive Israeli harassment, including
several jail terms and torture.
"THE VERY existence of Bir Zeit is a
crime in the eyes of Israeli students,"
he told the audience. Farah quoted
Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan
as saying, "We see that it is impossible
and we will not allow anyone in this
area to declare himself as a
Among the methods that the Israeli
government uses to control the
Palestinians, according to Farah, are
deportation, land confiscation, exten-
sive fines, and "administrative deten-
tion," or imprisonment. In schools,
books are thoroughly screened, and
teachers who express "opinions" are
arrested, he said.
Discussing further harassment,
Farah cited statistics showing Israeli
domination of the labor force (earning
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over twice what Palestinian laborers
receive), and exploitation of the water
supply 1 with 60 per cent of the water
supply under Israeli control.
In addition, Farah said that 2,500
Palestinians are jailed each year,
many without formal charges brought
against them. Farah also described
cases in which Israeli officials literally
bulldoze or dynamite Palestinian
homes, over~7,000 in the first two years
This repression, according to Farah,
inspired Israel's Minister of Justice,
prior to his attaining that post, to say,
"There were no such laws even in Nazi
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on the Diag
(Continued from Page 1)
ce that harmful pathogenic bacterias
could be there also."
The development of a simulation
model of the lakes is a new introduction
into the field of water quality research.
The model would enable researchers to
predict the effects of inputs into the
lakes, such as sewage or industrial
wastes. With that information,
decision-makers controlling the lakes'
regulation can make better choices on
JIM SHERRILL, a researcher in-
volved in the model's design, described
it as a set of equations that replicates
the physics andedynamics of the lake.
"The' model provides a good
simulation of inputs into the lake and
the changes that they would bring," he
said. "suppose there was an accidental
spillage of sewage into the lake. All we
need do is put in the relevant data into
the equations and we can pretty much
predict what will occur as a result."
The model is still in the stages of final
development, Sherrill said, and will be
presented to the Michigan Department
Approved by the American Bar Association. J
of Natural Resources along with the
completed study by a projected
December 1979 deadline.
BEETON SAID the study group is
trying to pinpoint all of the inputs into
the lakes. "We. 'are looking at the
volume and quality of these input con-
tributions, from the Huron River all the
way down to storm drains, creeks, and
rainfall," he said.
"Once we know wherd it comes
from," he continued, "we try to deter-
mine the dynamics of bacterial tran-
sport. We want to find out whether
these inputs simply flow on through the
lakes or possibly settle out on the bot-
The pollution of Ford and Belleville
Lakes has become a political issue in
recent months. Earlier this month, five
Van Buren Township trustees were
detained in Wayne County Jail for
refusing to obey a court order that
mandated a sewer hookup. The trustees
claimed the hookup could add to the
TOWNSHIP ATTORNEY Richard
James said Wayne County Circuit
Court Judge Ira Kaufman ordered the
trustees to allow a mobile home park
developer to tap into the Ypsilanti
Township sewer system.
"The difficulty with that," James
said, "is in that area, sewage would be
handled by the Snow Road pumping
station, which has been known to fail on
an average of two-to-four times a year
over the last five years or so.
"When it fails," he continued, "all of
the sewage spills onto the ground at the
station, which is adjacent to the Huron
River, and that, in turn, flows directly
into Belleville Lake."
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