The Michinnn Doily-Tuesdnv September 25, 1479-Pose 7'i
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ALVIN TOFFLER SPEAKS AT RACKHAVI:
Futurist predicts demise of present social institutions
By GREG GALLOPOULOS
The world is in the midst of a change of such magnitude and
significance that it is comparable only to the industrial and
agrarian revolutions, futurist author Alvin Toffler told an audience
of morethan 300 at Rackham Auditorium Sunday evening.
Speaking before the National Conference on Continuing
Education in Nursing, Toffler, author of the 1970 best seller Future
Shock, said history can be viewed in terms of "three great waves of
change."
THE FIRST OF these waves occurred when man abandoned the
nomadic ways of the hunter for the relatively stable life of the far-
mer. The second wave came with the triumph of technology. We
are presently in the third wave - the result of the accelerated pace
of change, and of the increased diversity of society.
This third wave of change, predicted Toffler, will lead to the
"breakup of the World Industrial System."
The "World Industrial System," according to Toffler, includes
all social institutions that are products of industrialism:
"Capitalism and.communism are merely its (the World Industrial
System's) children."
TOFFLER FORESEESJthe destruction of the present in-
dustrial civilization because its "institutions are designed to deal
with homogenity and slow-change," and will crumble in the face of
the fast-change and diversity that will increasingly confront
societies in the future.
Rapid change and increasing diversity are, in Toffler's view,
the inevitable results of the ever-increasing complexity of the
modern world, and have "cultural - not just economic and
political" impact.
This dramatic alteration of civilization - "the third great
wave of change" - differs from its predecessors, the agrarian and
industrial revolutions, primarily because "it is happening much
faster," Toffler said. "It will play itself out, I believe, not in
thousands of years, not in hundreds of years, but in tens of years -
decades. We happen to live in those decades."
TOFFLER SEES this transition period as one "of extreme tur-
bulence and conflict as we restructure the political frameworks of
many countries to accommodate the higher levels of diversity."
But this does not mean that civilization will be destroyed, Tof-
fler said.' While he does maintain that "absolutely fundamental
changes are required in all political systems" to accommodate in-
creased diversity, he adds that there is "nothing inherent in diver-
sity that means violence or anarchy.
On the contrary, Toffler said, diversity can provide strength
for a system: "Ecological systems are very diverse - the more
diversity, the stronger the system."
IN ORDER TO weather the stormy transition period, Toffler
advises that "we must learn to anticipate changes and prepare
alternatives for when our forecasts fail."
It is no longer enough, Toffler maintains, to confront problems
as they occur. The accelerated rate of change makes it crucial that
potential problems be identified, and alternative solutions devised,
in advance. "Long range planning," he said, "must be conducted
by everyone."~
Toffler's thesis is further developed in his new book, The Third
Wave, which will be published in March 1980.
Toffler's speech was the keynote address for a five-day con-
ference on Continuing Education in Nursing hosted by the Univer-
sity. The theme of the conference is "Transition: The Challenge."
FASTI
You'll get about 20
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of gas if you slow down
fron 70 to 55 mph on the
highway: For a free booklet
with more easy ways to
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write "Energy," Box 62,'
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HEW: Assistance to
(Continuedfrom Page 1
ask them to find a new place," said
William Lemmer, an attorney in the
University General Counsel's office.
"We could do that, or tell H
don't know what they are talkir
Those are the two extremes."
NOONE IS sure whether th
Mi
EW they
ng about.
e tribe is
Jets duel in Mideast
1
lchigamua v
still a legitimate student organization.
The Michigan Student Assembly (MSA )'
demands that every student group file
for recognition every year, but
Michigamua has consistently failed to
seek such recognition. It no longer
holds an account with the University.
And its free lease was granted by the
student Union in 1932, but the Union no
longer has the power to recognize
groups or grant space.
The HEW decision revolved around
three major distinctions: Whether.
Michigamua received significant
assistance from the- University,
(Continued from Page 1)
parachuting to safety. The other two
reportedly went down farther into the
hills with no word on the pilots.
-A Syrian military communique
issued in Damascus said two Israeli
jets also were "hit," but did not say
specifically they had crashed.
Casualties from the air battle' were
unknown..
LATER YESTERDAY, the wreckage
of one plane lay smoldering in woods
near Aramoun, less than two miles
from the airport. Syrian troops sealed
off the area.
"I saw two planes come into the sky
and then suddenly two more ap-
peared," said Ahmed Abdul Khaleq, an
Aramoun resident in his 40s. '
"All of a sudden I saw this one falling
down with fire coming from its left
wing. It exploded when it hit. There was
a huge flame."
ON JUNE 27, Israeli warplanes shot
dawn five Syrian MiG-21s in a dogfight
over southern Lebanon, the first air-
borne encounter between the two old
enemies since 1974. Western military
sources said all were downed by a
single Israeli F-15 that was on the
ground in Israel when the fight began
but was quick enough to get there in
time to help-the slower Israeli jets.
Damascus radio said last Thursday
that Syrian jets had driven off Israeli
aircraft flying over southern Lebanon.
Israeli newspapers said the Syrians
used air-to-air missiles in that encoun-
ter.
The Syrians, whose 22,000 troops
police a civil-war armistice in Lebanon,
have, pledged to defend Lebanese
.territory against Israeli air attacks.
Israeli jets frequently fly over Beirut
and southern Lebanon on surveillance
missions or to attack Palestinian
positions.
STATE DEPARTMENT spokesman
Reston had no comment yesterday on
whether Israel's use of F-15s over
Lebanon violates U.S. restrictions
limiting the aircraft to self-defense
missions. The Israelis say their
Lebanon operations are pre-emptive
missions to defend against Palestinian
attack. -
The Soviet-supplied Syrian air force
has more sophisticated MiG-23s and
MiG-27s, but they apparently have not
been using these in their challenges
against the Israelis.
violates civil rights
whether the group was simply a social
society rather than an honor society
and whether the group discriminated
on the basis of sex.
Honoraries, organizations whose fun- S
ctions are to bestow distinction upon
their deserving members, fall into the
category of student groups and are,
consequently, subject to Title IX.
TANAY SAID she and Blumenthal
were spurred on by a comment made
by then President Gerald Ford during
one of his visits to Ann Arbor.
"During a meeting," she said, "we
asked him what he thought about
having a blatantly sexist organization
on campus and his reaction was to
laugh."
Blumenthal recalled that Ford said
something about ridiculous things
stemming from Title IX. "I guess," she
said, "this sort of counteracts his little
statement."
r
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Co up on
cSp e Ca!
Te u niversity of Michigan,
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Young Dancers Contemporary Dance Workshop (ages 12-18)
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PHONE: 665-6101
Faculty: Gay Delanghe
Willie Feuer
For information call763-5460 or
write: Department of Dance
Christopher Flynn
Susan Matheke
Dance Building
1310 N. University Ct.
The University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, Michigon 48109
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