TUESDAY, NOVEMBER Si 1963
THE MICHIGAN DAILY
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1
Korea-Another South Viet Nam?
By WILLIAM L. RYAN
Associated Press Special Correspondent
SEOUL-Korea generates a feel-
ing of apprehension in an Ameri-
can who has just seen South Viet
Nam.
He has a vague feeling that he
may be watching the beginning
of a rerun with geographical var-
iations.
Korea's present situation gen-
erates uncertainty. A number of
-~factors--including the govern-
ment's vaguely stated ideas about
how South Korea should develop
-conceivably could blow the lid
from a bubbling kettle of trouble.
The result could be that the
United States, for all its popular-
ity among South Koreans and for
Poll Indicates
} GNP To Reach
Record Level.
Nearly 100 of the nation's top
economists dpredicted a Gross Na-
"tional Product for 1964 of $615.7
billion, providing there is no tax
reduction.
The prediction was made in a
poll taken at the 11th annual
Conference on the Economic Out-
look.
Last year the group of experts
attending the conference fell short
of the actual 1963 GNP of about
$582.1 billion with a prediction of
$569 billion.
Other predictions made by the
economists include:
-Gross private domestic in-
vestment: $83.7 billion with no
tax cut and $86 billion with a cut,
in comparison with a forecast in
1963 of $74.5 billion and an ac-
tual figure of $81.6 billion.
Consumer price index: 108.4.
The 1963 forecast was 106.9; the
actual figure 106.7.
-Unemployment: 5.68 per cent
with no tax cut and 5.35 per cent
with a cut, compared to a 5.7
per cent prediction last year and
actual 5.69 per cent.
-Corporate profits before taxes:
$53.2 billion with a tax cut, $52
billion without, in comparison to
a $51 billion prediction in 1963
and $50.3 billion actual.
all the billions invested in military
and economic aid, could sustain
a painful black eye.
Hopes and Fears
There is hope that South Korea
can grope its wayout of a murk
of frustration and economic-
political confusion without sus-
taining lasting injury. But re-
peatedly one hears, from both
Koreans and Americans, the words
that "it all depends upon what
Park does before Nov. 26 and after
Dec. 17."
Gen. Chung Hee Park is top
man of a military junta which in
1961 overthrew an elected regime
which had made a feeble attempt
at representative government. Nov.
26 is the date for election of a
175-member House of Represen-
tatives. Dec. 17 is the date the
new government will be inaugur-
ated.
Park was elected its president
by a narrow margin in October.
Degeneration
South Korea now is run by the
Supreme Committee for National
Reconstruction under Park's chair-I
manship. It began in a burst of
ideals and good intentions, and
like most authoritarian regimes,
gradually degenerated into repres-
sion and financial scandals.
It did many things that could
be considered laudable. American
officials applauded the results,
though not always the methods..
If the Nov. 26 elections are dem-
onstrably free, and if the inaugur-
ation means easing of political
repression, South Korea can es-
cape an explosion. If not, unhappy
North Korea bent on stirring
trouble.
Like Diem, Park became steadily
less popular with the intellectual
class. Paradoxically, while he was
elected, narrowly, but what passed
for a fairly free popular election
in October, his now legitimized
government suffers from a grow-
ing degree of unpopularity, es-
pecially in the capital.rMany seem
to have voted for Park for rea-
sons short of a conviction that he
was a champion of representative
government.
Americans have contributed
nearly $5.5 billion to military and
economic aid for South Korea
since 1945. The United States dead
in the Korean War exceeded 20,-
000. Today Americans here are
looking on nervously, with fingers
crossed. As was the case before
Diem was toppled in Viet Nam,
one hears from Americans that
"Park is the only man available'
we have to work with."
Concern About Aims
There is concern about Park's
political aims, which include ex-
pressed admiration for Egypt's
Gamal Abdel Nasser and Indo-
nesia's Sukarno. Park's lieutenants
say this doesn't mean he wants a
system like either of those, but
that he respects them for backig
systems each believes suited for
his own country. This implies that
Park wants to institute a system
he deems best for Koreans.
Park calls his system by various
names, including "administrative
democracy" and "national democ-
racy."
World News Roundup
By The Associated Press
ATHENS-Elder statesman George Papandreou won a surprising
personal election victory yesterday, and appeared headed toward the
prime ministry, a job he held nearly two decades ago.
Papandreou and his underdog Center party brought eight years
of rightist government to an end in Greece with an upset victory
in Sunday's ballotting. King Paul called him to Tatoi Palace yesterday
for consultation and it appeared virtually certain that he would
ask 75-year-old Papandreou then to form a government.
S * *
ROME-The Vatican has decided in principle to add women to
the list of auditors or delegates attending an ecumenical council
for the first time in history. References have been made recently
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CHUNG HEE PARK
... another Diem?
parallels with South Viet Nam
may appear.
Like Ngo Dinh Diem, Park be-
gan running South Korea with a
large measure of popular senti-
ment behind him. The elected
government of President John M.
Chang, which had succeeded the
deposed Syngman Rhee, had be-
come involved in confusion, chaos
and rampant corruption.
Division and Trouble
Like Viet Nam, Korea is divided
between non-Communist South
and Communist North. There is
no active war going on here but
Communist agents swarm in from
Coup To Affect U.S. Prestige
WASHINGTON (P)-The United
States is going to be credited or
blamed for arranging South Viet
Nam's sudden military coup, the
Wall Street Journal reported re-
cently.
As a result, United States pres-
tige and position will prosper or
suffer according to the outcome.
Some of the possible rewards
hoped for are a speedier-than-ex-
pected end to the fighting there,
and a consequent end to the cost-
ly and bloody United States mili-
tary involvement. Also hoped for
are prospects for a stable post-
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war Viet Nam government capable Viet Nam while the insurgents
of keeping the peace and contain- wrangle over who is ultimately to
ing new Red threats. wield power. The United States
Further, a favorable outcome in fears a dragged out war, which
Viet Nam would strengthen the would result in a black eye for
United States in its dealings with United States prestige and further
other recalcitrant small-country encouragement to coup plotters in
leaders in Southeast Asia or else- Latin America.
where who might be unresponsive Few policy-makers are yet ready
to United States noLicy aims. to bet heavily on how it will all
Considerable Risks turn out. The reason is that the
But the risks arising from the true nature of the new regime may
swift and ruthless smashing of not be clear for weeks or months.
the family-plan government of Many officials seem to feel that
Ngo Dinh Diem by the armed the successor government could be
forces Friday are considerable. no worse than its predecessor.
Among them are the possible Promising Situation
serious disruption of the anti- The fact that a Buddhist, Vice-
Communist war effort in South President Nguyen Ngoc Tho, looks
like the military candidate for
civilian chief is seen as promising
gRIbecause it could help ease the
Diem repression against the coun-
try's heavy Buddhist majority.
FA IRleaders are promising
most of the reforms Diem refused
to institute-freedom of press and
religion, an end to student arrests
FRI. AND SAT. and other political terror, and res-
toration of more harmonious re-
lations with neighboring Cambo-
dia.
However, one serious cause for
concern is the feeling that the
rebels are starting off with a han-
dicap-the fact that Diem and hisI
brother Nhu were apparently bru-
tally slain in the takeover.
ivity Military Motives
Also, the military makeup of the
rebels reflects military motives. It
is far from clear whether the mili-
tary men will show much concern
for the need to create a popular
government when, or if, the Red
guerrilla threat has been quashed.
Although the initial instinct
among top presidential advisors is
to proceed with caution, it is
e League expected that the United States
will give quick diplomatic recog-
nition to the new government, and
the Union and League that economic aid will not be used
as a lever, at least at the outset,
on the new government.
NEW YORK-Sen. Barry Gold-
water (R-Ariz) is the runaway
choice in a nationwide poll of
Republican Presidential prefer-
ences for 1964, taken by the As-
sociated Press among Republican
state and county leaders.
ALBANY-Gov. Nelson A. Rock-
efeller's formal declaration of
candidacy for the Republican
nomination for President will be
made on Thursday, informed
sources reported yesterday.
4 *' *
LONDON-Moscow Radio yes-
terday announced a major long-
term trade agreement between the
Soviet Union and Algeria, based
on exchange of Soviet heavy
equipment for Algerian food.
NEW YORK-General Motors
Corp. yesterday voted stockhold-
ers a special year-end dividend of
$1.50 a share on top of the regular
quarterly dividend of 50 cents a
share. This news, however, came
too late to stop a late selling spree
on the New York Stock Exchange.
The final Dow-Jones averages
showed 30 industrials down 4.51,
20 railroads down .72, 13 utilities
down .65 and 65 stocks down 1.41.
10 *'
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