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PAGE TWO
THE MICHIGAN DAILY
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 19. IAGA
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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS:
FILMS
Boom Foreseen Despite Inflation Bergman's 'Dreams' Requires Ti
)ught
By MARSHALL LASSER
There has rarely been such a
host of favorable predictions as
for the economy in 1966. Fore-
casts range from a conservative
estimate of a $40 billion increase
over 1965 in the Gross National
Product to a huge $60 billion
leap.
The boom will keep rolling on
-as fast or faster than before:
federal spending will jump up-
ward, business spending will rise
at the sharp pace it has main-
tained for the past two years.
and consumers will have billions
to spend.
But all is not rosy, for with a
fast-moving economy comes the
danger of inflation. Already, the
pace of inflation-over the past
few years usually about 1.2 per
cent per year-is quickening, and,
as the labor market tightens fur-
ther, as the government budget
goes into the red, inflation will
grow.
GNP Predictions
Forecasts of the 1966 GNP
range from $710 billion, a rise,
over last year of 5.7 per cent, to
$730 billion, a rise of 8.6 per cent.
In former years the spread in
predictions has been between
those of slow growth or stagna-
tion and those of business im-
provement; this year the range
is between strong growth with
stable prices and a boom with
shadings of inflation.
The government's chief author-
ity on the economy, the President's
Council of Economic Advisers.
takes the middle road. They pre-
dict a GNP of $722 billion, a 6.8
per cent gain over last year, but
they hedge with the added com-
ment that the figure is the mid-
point of a $10 billion range - ac-
cording to them the GNP could,,
turn out as high as $727 billion.
As to inflation, the advisers are
optimistic: "No major departure
from the increase in overall prices
in 1965." Thus they predict that
the GNP deflator (a standard
measure of inflation incorporat-
ing price rises of all goods and
services comprising the GNP) will
grow by 1.8 per cent, the same as
last year (but in contrast with
the 1.2 per cent of the year be-
fore). Their estimate, though ,is
below most others; the consen-
sus of economists is for about a
2.2 per cent rate of inflation.
Budget Design
Budget design, they claim, will
provide a degree of restraint. The
council calculates 'that govern-
ment spending will grow by $17.5
billion between the second half
of 1965 and the first half, of 1967,
while during the same period fed-
eral revenues will climb by $18.5
billion.
The administrative budget for
fiscal 1967 (July 1966-June 1967),
shows a deficit of only $1.8 bil-
lion ($111 billion in revenues,
$112.8 billion in expenditures),
compared to $5.6 billion last year.
When the figures are extended to
include all government expendi-
tures, including social security and
welfare payments, etc., a planned
surplus of half a billion appears.
But all this is conditional on
defense spending not rising over
the $56 billion yearly level it will
reach by July. If everything turns
out as it is hoped, the strain
brought by the sudden jump in
military expenditures will cease
greatly reducing inflationary pres-
sures in the economy..
Capital Spending
Capital spending outlay for
plants and manufacturing equip-
ment will jump ahead in the com-
ing year, reaching toward $60
billion; this increase of $7 billion.
over last year represents the third
straight yearly increase of 14 per
cent. This addition will ease the
strain in manufacturing capacity
-and thereby cut down one of
the causes of inflation.
But a number of industries have
been operating and will continue
to operate too close to capacity.
Simultaneously, productivity gains
are slowing down: in 1965 the in-
crease was 2.8 per cent-as com-
pared to the average annual gain
of 3.8 per cent-in the first four
years of the current boom. An-
other cause of inflation. tied with
manufacturing is inventories; the
inventory-to-sales ratio is about
as lowas it has ever been in the
last decade.
Another positive sector in the
economy is consumer spending. As
after-tax income rises by $35 bil-I
lion-a rise greater than that of
1964, the year of the tax cut-re-
tail sales will rise with it. Retail-I
ers expect a gain of about 6 per
cent over 1965.
Factory Backlogs
But as this demand grows, fac-
tory order backlogs grow too. And
this, in combination with the slow-
er productivity gains and rising
wage rates, means the upward
push on prices will be strong. Al-I
ready, the consumer price index
has moved ahead almost three per
cent in 1965; the wholesale price
index, which had remained almost
stationary since the base period
(1957-1959), moved up the same
amount. If anything, the index in-
creases will widen, though the
pressure on prices won't be as
great as that of the mid '50's
boom.
Besides productivity, another
source of pressure on prices is
wages. While five years ago every-
body was worried about widespread
unemployment, this year the wor-
ry will be over too tight a labor
market. The unemployment rate
hit 6 per cent in 1961; it has since
declined to 4 per cent and is still
dropping. Whether or not this will
add sizably to inflationary pres-
sure is in question; in December
unit labor costs were down to 98.1
(1957-1950 100). Government
economists think that the jobless
rate can move down to 3.5 per
cent without much threat of 'in-
flation; manpower training pro-
grams will help to ease the pres-
sure.
But the government guideposts
were given a severe blow by the
3RD WEEK
transit strike settlement, and labor
respect for them disappeared when
the advisers announced that they
would not be revised upward in
keeping with the rise in the five
year average of productivity gains
(which as of now constitute the
guideposts). Johnson has acted
strongly to halt price increases by
big corporations; to retain busi-
ness confidence-and to restrain
inflation-he may have to deal
with labor in a similar manner.
All in all, the outlook is bright
-but a few clouds have darkened
the scene and there are more over
the horizon.
The administration, at first hes-
itant to speak about the dangers
of inflation, now talks about the
possible necessity for fiscal re-
straints. Gardner Ackley, chair-
man of the Council of Economic
Advisers, would like to see Federal
Reserve Board Chairman William
McChesney Martin apply some re-
straints through monetary policy.
Much depends on the situation
in Viet Nam --- escalation means
more defense spending, and morE
defense spending means more in-
flation. Yet a budget that can
hold to a small deficit will, at
least, have no large negative ef-
fects.
The boom will continue as
strong as before, but inflation will
grow with it; the situation, be-
coming more delicate, requires
skillful government handling. Bas-
ically, the economy remains very
strong, despite potential problems.
DAILY OFFICIAL
BULLETIN
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sity of Michigan, for which The
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Student organization notices are not
accepted for publication.
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 19
Day Calendar
Basketball-U-M vs. Purdue: Yost
(Continued on Page 8)
Shows at 1:30-4:30-8:00 P.M.
Matinees. .....$1.25
Evenings & Sunday . $1.50
Children.75c
By DAVID KNOKE
Ingmar Bergman's "Dreams" is
a film which makes you think. Not
about profound issues raised in the
film; no, about why he bothered
to make it. "Dreams" flickers on
the stage for 86 minutes before a
"The End" sign flashes abruptly
on. It takes several minutes sitting
in the lighted auditorium to real-
ize that the film really is over.
that all Bergman's prolonged, care-
ful buildup and his development
of two subplots just beginning to
intertwine, have been dissolved
without climax or denouement.
Unlike the similar early-Berg-
man "Dreams of a Summer
Night," which used a story line
and some of the actors from this
film, "Dreams" seems to have been
an experimental film, an atroph-
ied attempt at using the screen
as a medium for transmitting emo-
tional experience rather than the
event. Seen in this sense, "Dreams"
is a slice-of-life film, circular,
without beginning nor end, where-
in each interaction of the char-
acters seems both trivial and in-
delible.
Profound Symbolism
With any of Bergman's works,
it is too easy to read profound
symbolism into every camera
scene, every objet d'art and cur-
io, every Freudian slip 'twixt the
kisses. The real trick in evaluat-
ing Bergman is to see that be-
neath theovert symbolism, he
can also tell a story in the best
tradition of the oral story-tellers.
When he seems to be talking of
Everyman, he is also talking (and
showing) just one person in par-
ticular..
The two threads of story are
woven by two women: Doris, a
coltish young model on the verge
of her first love, and her em-
ployer, Suzanne, an older woman
struggling to preserve the weak-
ening hold she has over Henrik,
her married lover. In the course
of a visit to Gothenberg, Doris
falls into a platonic affair with
a man twice her age and Suzanne,
in a last desperate rendezvous
with Henrik, comes to realize that
their relationship is fated to dis-
solve, not with a harangue but an
acquiescence.
Eva Dalkbek, who plays Su-
zanne, is the most striking pres-
ence in the movie. Except for the
time when the camera is occupied'
with Doris' flirtations, Suzanne'
completely dominates her scenes
In the development of her per-
sonality, Bergman comes closest
to departing for the canceptuali-
zation o fthe individualand creat-
ing and Everywoman. Where
"Dreams of a Summer Night"
might be seen as a sex-farce and
marriage parody a-la-Shaw with
several unusual cinematic tech-
niques, "Dreams" portrays sex in
its deepest seriousness.
Miss Dalkbek is not sexy in a
sensual way. The ephemeral con-,
notations of sexual pleasure are
of relative unimportance to her.
What Bergman reiterates again
and again in the scenes in which
she appears is the channeling of
the life force, the procreative urge
of all creatures to perpetuate
themselves and thereby gain im-
mortality through their offspring.
Suzanne spies on her.lover from
the woods while sexual symbol:
appear around her: trees, horses
houses, automobiles. Yet she re-
mains unaffected by lust; her love
runs deeper for this tired, balding
executive who doesn't have the
courage to make a clean break
from the wife he doesn't love. Su-
zanne is drawn to a baby carriage
and looks down at the child, just
before it is snatched up by its
mother. The look in her eyes is
sheer despair.
"Dreams" is a curious film; it
takes some studying before one
sees the validity in Bergman's cir-
cular arrangement of love and per-
petuation.
Read
Dil
Clsi td
--- rI
Congratulations
to the new members of
Cinema Guild
HANK GORNBEIN: Discussion Groups
ELLEN FRANK: Recording Secretary
NEIL PATTERSON: Program Notes
ALLAN KENNEDY: Advertising
PETER WILD: Projectors
VIC PAISLEY: Treasurer
MARY BARKEY: Corresponding Secretary
MARCIA PELLEY: Departments
RICHARD AYRES: Trainee
MICHAEL STERN: Trainee
Call 662-4867 or
wte to 216 S. State St
for a free brochure
or on interview
R
MUSIC
New York Artists Play,
Varied Chamber Works
JOHNNY, RIVERS
wi be
t Hdeout"
Saturday, Feb. 26: 3-6, 8-12... IM Bu Iding
There'll be Booths and dancing too! !
By ANN L. MARCHIO
The University Musical Society
is featuring the New York Cham-
ber Soloists in its 26th annual
Chamber Music Festival today and
tomorrow. Each program contains
a well-balanced representation of
the several periods of chamber
music, thus allowing the audience
to compare the varied types of
treatment of this type of music. -
"Chamber music" is the general
term denoting music for perform-
ance in a room of a private house.
During its classical period, cham-
ber music was composed for roy-
al and aristocratic patronage.
This was the time of Bach and
Handel and the continuo. In these
earliest works harmony is left
to the harpsichord player to ex-'
temporize from a figured bass
(continuo).
The sonata style of Haydn and
Mozart furnished chamber music
with the idea that all instruments
should provide their own har-
monic background without the
support of the continuo. The mid-
dle part no longer provided only
a background but often carried
the main lines. The polyphonic
string quartets of Mozart and the
special effects of Haydn's fugues
replaced the classical performanc-
es. Various numbers and species of
stringed instruments were later
introduced as well as combinations
with wind instruments.
Today's Forms
Today chamber music is no,
longer limited to the sonata form.
Many are based on fantasy pre-
sented in continuous-movement
forms, as can be found in Brit-
ten's "Phantasy Quartet for oboe,
violin, viola and cello." Aitken's
"Cantata No. 1. on Elizabethan
Texts," written in 1958, provides
a striking contrast in the use of
the voice.
Other highlights included in
the repertoire are Couperin's
"Concert Royal No. 3," Schubert's
"Die Forelle" quintet, selections
from "The Notebook of Anna
Magladina Bach," and Prokofiev's
"Quintet for oboe, clarinet, violin,
viola and double bass, Op. 39"
(1924).
Saturday's concert will begin at
8:30 and Sunday's at 2:30 in Rack-
ham Auditorium. Tickets -may still
be purchased from the UMS office
in Burton Tower.
PH. 482-2056
6&uneth ARPENTER ROAD
FREE IN-CAR HEATERS
BOX OFFICE OPEN 6:30
E
N)jTECHNICOLOR'
NORA UNIVERSAL CTURE
Shown at 7:10 & 10:30
(b 11 aS
li(/ ..-h.Ui NICOOR
Shown at 9:00 Only
Another part of:
OertoM-trigue
Feb. 25-26
sponsored by UAC
I
DIAL STARTING Shown at 1:00
662-6264 TODAY 3:00-5:00
~/:w5and 9:15
He's no secret agent...he's a crook!
Wionerof 8 Academy Awards inludig Best Picture.
AUDREY HEPBURN - REX HARRISON
"W
m
1
FILM DISCUSSION
on
"DREAMS"
Sunday, February 20, 9 P.M.
ROOM 101,ARCHITECTURE BUILDING
C
a
s
s
A
N
D
R
A
ASSANDRA
by C. B. Gilford and Elizabeth Gibson
i ....
Premiere
DIAL 8-6416
2ND WEEK
Production
Last Performance Tonight
8 P.M.
Lydia Mendelssohn Theatre
"WORTH
SEEING!"W
N. Y. Herald Tribune
'F'
2:52".
"1 -
D
[][]
[] Hfl tc
***00 lli
BOX OFFICE OPEN 12:30-8 P.M.
Get Tickets Now For:
ROSALINDA
March 16-19
PEER GYNT
April 6-9
UNIVERSITY
PLAYERS
Department
ofp
Speech
Th+ re isn
aU de #at bule#
h he In
sere isnm" and
rv e who c woman
1 t!
ky^y®
3 '
This is not a lecture-come
prepared to discuss.
lk
I
Loved
CINEMA II
PRESENTS
TONIGHT at 7and 9 P.M.
INGMAR BERGMAN'S
"DRfRMS"
COLUMBIA PICTURES presents
HORST BUCHOLZn An Any Isasi "THAT MAN IN ISTANBUL"
with syLVA OSCINA -PERETTE PRADIER andMARIO ADOR
Screenplay by GEORGE SIMONELLI and NAT WACHSBERGER - Music Composed by GEORGES GARVARENTZ
Executive Producer NAT WACHSBERGER - Directed by ANTHONY ISASI
-0
1
i -
Dr. Strangelove
OR
How
I
Learned to
Stop Worrying and
Love the Bomb
1 1
1 1
1 His masterly early film
1 1
1 1
Short: "The Last Serial"
--a satire on serials with Al St. John
I
Petitioning is now open for the Executive Offices and Committee Chairmen of
Inter House Assembly. The deadline for PETITIONS is 5:00 P.M., MONDAY,
February 21. Pick uD Detitions at 1511 S.A.B.
I : % If -r"l 1 Iii,
il
I
I11111
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