/ PAGE TWO THE MICHIGAN DAILY SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 19. IAGA ,, ; + A WaRD AY TRTA~ Q iin- - ---. --- p - na a1, 1 a,,vU 0 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: FILMS Boom Foreseen Despite Inflation Bergman's 'Dreams' Requires Ti )ught By MARSHALL LASSER There has rarely been such a host of favorable predictions as for the economy in 1966. Fore- casts range from a conservative estimate of a $40 billion increase over 1965 in the Gross National Product to a huge $60 billion leap. The boom will keep rolling on -as fast or faster than before: federal spending will jump up- ward, business spending will rise at the sharp pace it has main- tained for the past two years. and consumers will have billions to spend. But all is not rosy, for with a fast-moving economy comes the danger of inflation. Already, the pace of inflation-over the past few years usually about 1.2 per cent per year-is quickening, and, as the labor market tightens fur- ther, as the government budget goes into the red, inflation will grow. GNP Predictions Forecasts of the 1966 GNP range from $710 billion, a rise, over last year of 5.7 per cent, to $730 billion, a rise of 8.6 per cent. In former years the spread in predictions has been between those of slow growth or stagna- tion and those of business im- provement; this year the range is between strong growth with stable prices and a boom with shadings of inflation. The government's chief author- ity on the economy, the President's Council of Economic Advisers. takes the middle road. They pre- dict a GNP of $722 billion, a 6.8 per cent gain over last year, but they hedge with the added com- ment that the figure is the mid- point of a $10 billion range - ac- cording to them the GNP could,, turn out as high as $727 billion. As to inflation, the advisers are optimistic: "No major departure from the increase in overall prices in 1965." Thus they predict that the GNP deflator (a standard measure of inflation incorporat- ing price rises of all goods and services comprising the GNP) will grow by 1.8 per cent, the same as last year (but in contrast with the 1.2 per cent of the year be- fore). Their estimate, though ,is below most others; the consen- sus of economists is for about a 2.2 per cent rate of inflation. Budget Design Budget design, they claim, will provide a degree of restraint. The council calculates 'that govern- ment spending will grow by $17.5 billion between the second half of 1965 and the first half, of 1967, while during the same period fed- eral revenues will climb by $18.5 billion. The administrative budget for fiscal 1967 (July 1966-June 1967), shows a deficit of only $1.8 bil- lion ($111 billion in revenues, $112.8 billion in expenditures), compared to $5.6 billion last year. When the figures are extended to include all government expendi- tures, including social security and welfare payments, etc., a planned surplus of half a billion appears. But all this is conditional on defense spending not rising over the $56 billion yearly level it will reach by July. If everything turns out as it is hoped, the strain brought by the sudden jump in military expenditures will cease greatly reducing inflationary pres- sures in the economy.. Capital Spending Capital spending outlay for plants and manufacturing equip- ment will jump ahead in the com- ing year, reaching toward $60 billion; this increase of $7 billion. over last year represents the third straight yearly increase of 14 per cent. This addition will ease the strain in manufacturing capacity -and thereby cut down one of the causes of inflation. But a number of industries have been operating and will continue to operate too close to capacity. Simultaneously, productivity gains are slowing down: in 1965 the in- crease was 2.8 per cent-as com- pared to the average annual gain of 3.8 per cent-in the first four years of the current boom. An- other cause of inflation. tied with manufacturing is inventories; the inventory-to-sales ratio is about as lowas it has ever been in the last decade. Another positive sector in the economy is consumer spending. As after-tax income rises by $35 bil-I lion-a rise greater than that of 1964, the year of the tax cut-re- tail sales will rise with it. Retail-I ers expect a gain of about 6 per cent over 1965. Factory Backlogs But as this demand grows, fac- tory order backlogs grow too. And this, in combination with the slow- er productivity gains and rising wage rates, means the upward push on prices will be strong. Al-I ready, the consumer price index has moved ahead almost three per cent in 1965; the wholesale price index, which had remained almost stationary since the base period (1957-1959), moved up the same amount. If anything, the index in- creases will widen, though the pressure on prices won't be as great as that of the mid '50's boom. Besides productivity, another source of pressure on prices is wages. While five years ago every- body was worried about widespread unemployment, this year the wor- ry will be over too tight a labor market. The unemployment rate hit 6 per cent in 1961; it has since declined to 4 per cent and is still dropping. Whether or not this will add sizably to inflationary pres- sure is in question; in December unit labor costs were down to 98.1 (1957-1950 100). Government economists think that the jobless rate can move down to 3.5 per cent without much threat of 'in- flation; manpower training pro- grams will help to ease the pres- sure. But the government guideposts were given a severe blow by the 3RD WEEK transit strike settlement, and labor respect for them disappeared when the advisers announced that they would not be revised upward in keeping with the rise in the five year average of productivity gains (which as of now constitute the guideposts). Johnson has acted strongly to halt price increases by big corporations; to retain busi- ness confidence-and to restrain inflation-he may have to deal with labor in a similar manner. All in all, the outlook is bright -but a few clouds have darkened the scene and there are more over the horizon. The administration, at first hes- itant to speak about the dangers of inflation, now talks about the possible necessity for fiscal re- straints. Gardner Ackley, chair- man of the Council of Economic Advisers, would like to see Federal Reserve Board Chairman William McChesney Martin apply some re- straints through monetary policy. Much depends on the situation in Viet Nam --- escalation means more defense spending, and morE defense spending means more in- flation. Yet a budget that can hold to a small deficit will, at least, have no large negative ef- fects. The boom will continue as strong as before, but inflation will grow with it; the situation, be- coming more delicate, requires skillful government handling. Bas- ically, the economy remains very strong, despite potential problems. DAILY OFFICIAL BULLETIN The Daily Official Bulletin is an official publication of the Univer- sity of Michigan, for which The Michigan Dailyaassumes no editor- ial responsibility. Notices should be sent in TYPEWRITTEN form to Room 3519 Administration Bldg. be- fore 2 p.m. of the day preceding publication, and by 2 p.m. Friday for Saturday and Sunday. General Notices may be published a maxi- mum of two times on request; Day Calendar items appear once only. Student organization notices are not accepted for publication. SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 19 Day Calendar Basketball-U-M vs. Purdue: Yost (Continued on Page 8) Shows at 1:30-4:30-8:00 P.M. Matinees. .....$1.25 Evenings & Sunday . $1.50 Children.75c By DAVID KNOKE Ingmar Bergman's "Dreams" is a film which makes you think. Not about profound issues raised in the film; no, about why he bothered to make it. "Dreams" flickers on the stage for 86 minutes before a "The End" sign flashes abruptly on. It takes several minutes sitting in the lighted auditorium to real- ize that the film really is over. that all Bergman's prolonged, care- ful buildup and his development of two subplots just beginning to intertwine, have been dissolved without climax or denouement. Unlike the similar early-Berg- man "Dreams of a Summer Night," which used a story line and some of the actors from this film, "Dreams" seems to have been an experimental film, an atroph- ied attempt at using the screen as a medium for transmitting emo- tional experience rather than the event. Seen in this sense, "Dreams" is a slice-of-life film, circular, without beginning nor end, where- in each interaction of the char- acters seems both trivial and in- delible. Profound Symbolism With any of Bergman's works, it is too easy to read profound symbolism into every camera scene, every objet d'art and cur- io, every Freudian slip 'twixt the kisses. The real trick in evaluat- ing Bergman is to see that be- neath theovert symbolism, he can also tell a story in the best tradition of the oral story-tellers. When he seems to be talking of Everyman, he is also talking (and showing) just one person in par- ticular.. The two threads of story are woven by two women: Doris, a coltish young model on the verge of her first love, and her em- ployer, Suzanne, an older woman struggling to preserve the weak- ening hold she has over Henrik, her married lover. In the course of a visit to Gothenberg, Doris falls into a platonic affair with a man twice her age and Suzanne, in a last desperate rendezvous with Henrik, comes to realize that their relationship is fated to dis- solve, not with a harangue but an acquiescence. Eva Dalkbek, who plays Su- zanne, is the most striking pres- ence in the movie. Except for the time when the camera is occupied' with Doris' flirtations, Suzanne' completely dominates her scenes In the development of her per- sonality, Bergman comes closest to departing for the canceptuali- zation o fthe individualand creat- ing and Everywoman. Where "Dreams of a Summer Night" might be seen as a sex-farce and marriage parody a-la-Shaw with several unusual cinematic tech- niques, "Dreams" portrays sex in its deepest seriousness. Miss Dalkbek is not sexy in a sensual way. The ephemeral con-, notations of sexual pleasure are of relative unimportance to her. What Bergman reiterates again and again in the scenes in which she appears is the channeling of the life force, the procreative urge of all creatures to perpetuate themselves and thereby gain im- mortality through their offspring. Suzanne spies on her.lover from the woods while sexual symbol: appear around her: trees, horses houses, automobiles. Yet she re- mains unaffected by lust; her love runs deeper for this tired, balding executive who doesn't have the courage to make a clean break from the wife he doesn't love. Su- zanne is drawn to a baby carriage and looks down at the child, just before it is snatched up by its mother. The look in her eyes is sheer despair. "Dreams" is a curious film; it takes some studying before one sees the validity in Bergman's cir- cular arrangement of love and per- petuation. Read Dil Clsi td --- rI Congratulations to the new members of Cinema Guild HANK GORNBEIN: Discussion Groups ELLEN FRANK: Recording Secretary NEIL PATTERSON: Program Notes ALLAN KENNEDY: Advertising PETER WILD: Projectors VIC PAISLEY: Treasurer MARY BARKEY: Corresponding Secretary MARCIA PELLEY: Departments RICHARD AYRES: Trainee MICHAEL STERN: Trainee Call 662-4867 or wte to 216 S. State St for a free brochure or on interview R MUSIC New York Artists Play, Varied Chamber Works JOHNNY, RIVERS wi be t Hdeout" Saturday, Feb. 26: 3-6, 8-12... IM Bu Iding There'll be Booths and dancing too! ! By ANN L. MARCHIO The University Musical Society is featuring the New York Cham- ber Soloists in its 26th annual Chamber Music Festival today and tomorrow. Each program contains a well-balanced representation of the several periods of chamber music, thus allowing the audience to compare the varied types of treatment of this type of music. - "Chamber music" is the general term denoting music for perform- ance in a room of a private house. During its classical period, cham- ber music was composed for roy- al and aristocratic patronage. This was the time of Bach and Handel and the continuo. In these earliest works harmony is left to the harpsichord player to ex-' temporize from a figured bass (continuo). The sonata style of Haydn and Mozart furnished chamber music with the idea that all instruments should provide their own har- monic background without the support of the continuo. The mid- dle part no longer provided only a background but often carried the main lines. The polyphonic string quartets of Mozart and the special effects of Haydn's fugues replaced the classical performanc- es. Various numbers and species of stringed instruments were later introduced as well as combinations with wind instruments. Today's Forms Today chamber music is no, longer limited to the sonata form. Many are based on fantasy pre- sented in continuous-movement forms, as can be found in Brit- ten's "Phantasy Quartet for oboe, violin, viola and cello." Aitken's "Cantata No. 1. on Elizabethan Texts," written in 1958, provides a striking contrast in the use of the voice. Other highlights included in the repertoire are Couperin's "Concert Royal No. 3," Schubert's "Die Forelle" quintet, selections from "The Notebook of Anna Magladina Bach," and Prokofiev's "Quintet for oboe, clarinet, violin, viola and double bass, Op. 39" (1924). Saturday's concert will begin at 8:30 and Sunday's at 2:30 in Rack- ham Auditorium. Tickets -may still be purchased from the UMS office in Burton Tower. PH. 482-2056 6&uneth ARPENTER ROAD FREE IN-CAR HEATERS BOX OFFICE OPEN 6:30 E N)jTECHNICOLOR' NORA UNIVERSAL CTURE Shown at 7:10 & 10:30 (b 11 aS li(/ ..-h.Ui NICOOR Shown at 9:00 Only Another part of: OertoM-trigue Feb. 25-26 sponsored by UAC I DIAL STARTING Shown at 1:00 662-6264 TODAY 3:00-5:00 ~/:w5and 9:15 He's no secret agent...he's a crook! Wionerof 8 Academy Awards inludig Best Picture. AUDREY HEPBURN - REX HARRISON "W m 1 FILM DISCUSSION on "DREAMS" Sunday, February 20, 9 P.M. ROOM 101,ARCHITECTURE BUILDING C a s s A N D R A ASSANDRA by C. B. Gilford and Elizabeth Gibson i .... Premiere DIAL 8-6416 2ND WEEK Production Last Performance Tonight 8 P.M. Lydia Mendelssohn Theatre "WORTH SEEING!"W N. Y. Herald Tribune 'F' 2:52". "1 - D [][] [] Hfl tc ***00 lli BOX OFFICE OPEN 12:30-8 P.M. Get Tickets Now For: ROSALINDA March 16-19 PEER GYNT April 6-9 UNIVERSITY PLAYERS Department ofp Speech Th+ re isn aU de #at bule# h he In sere isnm" and rv e who c woman 1 t! ky^y® 3 ' This is not a lecture-come prepared to discuss. lk I Loved CINEMA II PRESENTS TONIGHT at 7and 9 P.M. INGMAR BERGMAN'S "DRfRMS" COLUMBIA PICTURES presents HORST BUCHOLZn An Any Isasi "THAT MAN IN ISTANBUL" with syLVA OSCINA -PERETTE PRADIER andMARIO ADOR Screenplay by GEORGE SIMONELLI and NAT WACHSBERGER - Music Composed by GEORGES GARVARENTZ Executive Producer NAT WACHSBERGER - Directed by ANTHONY ISASI -0 1 i - Dr. Strangelove OR How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb 1 1 1 1 1 His masterly early film 1 1 1 1 Short: "The Last Serial" --a satire on serials with Al St. John I Petitioning is now open for the Executive Offices and Committee Chairmen of Inter House Assembly. The deadline for PETITIONS is 5:00 P.M., MONDAY, February 21. Pick uD Detitions at 1511 S.A.B. 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