PAGE FOUR
THE MICHIGAN DAILY
THURSDAY, JANUARY 6. 1966
PAGE FOUR TIlE MICHIGAN DAILY THURSDAY, JANUARY 6,1966
Us.S
Peace Offensive' Urges
Talks on
Viet Crisis
By The Associated Press
The second and most dramatic
phase of President Johnson's peace
offensive is nearing an end with-
out any public indication from
the Communists in Viet Nam that
they are ready for talks on stop-
ping the Southeast Asian war.
A shift in presidential attention
to the hard realities of expanding
military operations to increase
pressure on the Communists to
force a settlement sometime in
this new year if possible is indi-
cated but unconfirmed.
The administrations public em-
phasis remains on peace probing
and officials have not ruled out
the possibility that secret contacts
with the Communists may have
been more encouraging than pub-
lic contacts.
Cease-Fire
The first phase of administra-
tive efforts was the not-too-suc-
cessful Christmas cease-fire which
was succeeded by dispatch of
many peace-seeking envoys in the
second phase, which still is going
on.
The public contacts ,made by
special emissaries Johnson sent
flying off last week, do provide a
dramatic background for the criti-
cal decisions which are coming
up for presidential action in prep-
aration for the next session of
Congress opening a week hence.
The Vietnamese war is expected
to add more than $10 billion to
the President's budget and this
coupled with manpower escala-
tions provided a special signifi-
cance to the President's drive in
the Christmas-New Years period.
Two Purposes
The campaign is regarded by
well informed Washington author- onstrating effectively his deep de- conferred with Soviet officials inj
ities as having two major pur- sire to end the war if possible. Moscow.
poses: Policy Talks Roving Ambassador W. Averell
First, to see whether the con- Vice-President Hubert H. Hum- Harriman, whose unheralded trip
flict could be shifted from the phrey flew back from the Far East to Warsaw last week started the
battlefield to the conference table; Monday after a four-nation trip. whole thing, was still traveling
Second, to demonstrate that if It was originally planned as an in the Middle East after visiting
the war must be expanded at assignment to a presidential inau- other European Communist lead-
greater cost and wider risks to guration in the Philippines but ers as well as Asian capitals.
peace the blame would be fixed then, under instruction, Humphrey
squarely on the Communist ene- talked U.S.-Viet Nam policy every- Maximum Effort
my insofar as U.S. actions could where he met foreign government It was a maximum effort John-
put it there. leaders - Japan, Formosa and son put on with these men, mak-
Johnson's dispatch of high-lev- South Korea as well as the Philip- ing them the obvious cutting edge
el officials and diplomats on fly- pines. of his peace offensive, about as
ing and slightly mysterious mis- Ambassador to the United Na- much as he could have done to
sions to world capitals served the tions Arthur J. Goldberg, whose draw attention to his campaign
purpose of dramatization, if noth- initial mission was to talk peace without going abroad himself.
ing else. Administration authori- with Pope Paul VI, returned to the While attention was focused on
ties are convinced that it served United States on the weekend aft- the traveling envoys, U.S. ambas-
much more-that Johnson has in- er top" level conferences not only sadors around the world were in-
deed been getting his combined in Rome but in Paris and Lon- structed to make American views
peace message and war warning don as well. Other emissaries flew on Viet Nam clear to the govern-
across to the Communists at the to Canada, Mexico and Africa, and ments to which they are accredit-
same time that he has been dem- U.S. Ambassador Foy D. Kohler] ed.
But the first phase of the cam- and East European Communist
paign which was overwhelmed by governments have been saying
the grandstand tactics of the sec- that no peace talks would be pos-
ond was possibly more important sible so long as the bombing of
to the serious diplomatic tests of the North continued. The Russians
Communist policy and intentions., particularly have pressed the Unit-
The first phase began with the ed States to create a better cli-
Christmas Eve truce in North and
South Viet Nam.
The truce effectively stopped the
bombing of the North and Presi-
dent Johnson simply chose not to
resume it when the ground war
started up again fullscale in the
South the day after Christmas.
Private Initiative
The suspension of bombing un-
doubtedly has been accompanied
not only by show-window public
diplomacy but by a number of
private diplomatic initiatives un-;
dertaken through official and un-
official channels which exist be-
tween Communist North Viet Nam
and Washington.
For almost a year the Soviet
mate for opening negotiations by
stopping the bombing.
Johnson did so last May in a
five-day peace move that the Reds
scorned.
This time he is already well
beyond the five-day limit and a
moderately long pause would not
surprise Washington officials al-
though its duration is apparently
subject to day-to-day decisions by
Johnson.
But the administration appears
determined to make a careful and
deliberate test of the Soviet idea
-shared by many other U.S. poli-
cy critics-that a substantial pause
In the bombing of the North
would promote peace talks.
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By The Associated Press
How can you tell a "developed
country" from a "developing coun-
try?" The most exact way, says
the United Nations, is by the
level of humanareproductivity -
the birth rate.
The birth rate of nations in
North America, Europe, U.S.S.R.
and Japan ranges from 17 to 25
per 1000 population per year.
These, clearly, are "developed"
countries. In the rest of the world
-Asia, Africa and Latin America
-birth rates range from 39 to 50
per 1000 per year. These, then, are
the developing countries.
What difference does it make?
Well, demographers-the people
who study the science of people-
think it may make a lot of dif-
ference to know in advance what
the world will look like. in the
year 2000. Nobody knows for sure,
but here are some educated guess-
es:
Developing Countries
In 1900, two-thirds of all the
people in the world lived in the
developing countries. Today that
figure is three-quarters, and by
2000 it will be four-fifths.
In 1900, the world's population
was 1.6 billion. Today it is 3.3
billion, and by 2000 it will be 7.4
billion. The increase in the first
65 years of this century was 1.7
billion, but the increase in the
last 35 years of the century will
be 4.1 billion. That, in a nutshell,
is the "population explosion."
The cause of this is quite clear.
The "rate of increase" for pop;la-
tion is the difference between the
birth rate and the death rate. In
the developed countries, the dif-
ference yields an annual "rate of
increase" ranging from 0.5 to 1.7
per cent. In the developing coun-
tries the rate of increase ranges
from one to 3.5 per cent. At 0.5
per cent, the population doubles
in 139 years. At 3.5 per cent it
doubles in 20 years.
Population Growth
The main argument about the
"population explosion" is how vio-
lent it will be. Nobody can $ore-
tell exactly, due to the uncertain-
ties-war, famine, pestilence. But
the experts agree that the popula-
tion in the year 2000 will be be-
tween 6.8 billion ,and 7.4 billion-
well over twice what it is today.
The crux of the. dilemma lies in
the fact that while the world's
population is zooming, the amount
of land available to feed and
house it remains the same. The
Population Reference B u r e a u,
which studies these matters, re-
ports that in 1930 there were 40
people to the square mile in the
world. Today there are 63, and by
2000 there will be 142.
Land Base
"How," asks the Bureau, "are
so many people. particularly on
the Asian continent, going to be,
supported on ~a shrinking per cap-
ita land base?" Europe, the world's
most crowded continent today, has
about three acres of land per per-
son, by the year 2000 will have on-
ly about two acres. "But rural,
undernourished Asia is moving
headlong toward having only one-
and-a-half total acres per person;
only a fraction of an acre of ar-
able land per capita," says the
Bureau.
The answer, already evident, is
the rush to the cities. The Bureau
foresees a rapid growth of teem-
ing "slum cities," such as Cal-
cutta. Of the trek to the cities, a
recent United Nations report said:
"Like the migrations of lemmings,
nothing seems to stop it-not the
scarcity of jobs, not the absence
of decent shelter, nor the presence
of real hardship." This report
foresees a proliferation of squatter
towns and "the slums of Harlem
or the bazaars of Calcutta."
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