THE MICHIGAN DAILY
nette Warns of Slackening Business
COMPUTER ADVANCES CHARTED:
Technology Outp aces Programming
Educators Attack Method
Of Selectig New Studen
(Continued from Page 1)
Reserve Board has kept too tight
a rein on money.
Prof. Wernette, a director of
the Ohio Citizens Trust Co. of
Toledo, said the recent lowering
of the discount rate and increase
of the lending capacity of member
banks by the FRB may, not take
effect fast enough to prevent a
business slowdown.
"The Fed has taken its foot off
the brake, but it has not yet
stepped on the accelerator," he
said.
On a long-term basis, however,
the outlook is bright, he added.
While the nation may experience
some minor business setbacks be-
tween now and 1970, total produc-
tion of goods and services will
increase about one-half during
the next decade; from the present
level of $500 billion to $750 billion.
Prof. Wernette predicted a rise'
of the country's standard of living
of about 25 per cent during this
period.
"The Sixties will witness a race
between American domestic pro-
gress and international disaster,"
he went on. "More and more na-
tions will obtain weapons for
.man's destruction.
"Our greatest problem is to pre-
vent their use. If the earth is not
ruined, man may make prodigious
economic progress in this and suc-
ceeding decades."
Wernette is the author of "The
Future of American Prosperity,"
and a forthcoming volume on
"Growth and Prosperity Without
Inflation," which will be published
early next year.
"The Federal Reserve Board
has been excessively concerned
with inflation for many years,"
Prof. Wernette said.
Prof. Wernette , received his
Ph.D from Harvard University,
and served on the faculty there
from 1927 to 1945. He has been
editor of the Michigan Business
Review.
Costa Awarded
Fulbriglht Prize
Charlotte Costa, '58, has been
awarded a Fulbright Scholarship
for study in Paris during the
1960-61 academic year.
Miss Costa, a former teaching
fellow in the French department,
will do research in the field of
contemporary French drama.
The development of computer
technology in the past 20 years
has been "just unbelievable," but
advances in programming for
computers and in using the elec-
tronic brains in mathematical
theory work have been much
slower in coming.
The analysis of the current
high-speed computer field came
from Herman Goldstine, director
of mathematics research for IBM.
Winding up a University series of
computer courses for some 300
computer experts and students,
Goldstine spoke recently, on
"Where We've Been and Where
We're Going."
Technologically, c o m p u t e r s
have advanced considerably since
the early stages of their develop-
ment during World War I. Then,
about 25 people worked with the
machines and computers had a
high speed memory capacity of
around 20 words.
Great Advances
Today, computers' vocabularies
run into tens of thousands of
words and computations can be
completed thousands of times
faster than before. And, Gold-
stine, a former University math-
ematics professor, added, peopleI
specializing in computing work
now number in the "hundreds of
thousands."
Work on the ENIAC, one of the
earliest types of high speed digital
computers, occupied Goldstine
during World War II. Composed
of about 20,000 vacuum tubes and
costing half a million' dollars, the
ENIAC was used to compute firing
tables for the armed services.
Since then, transistors have re-
placed vecuum tubes, decreasing
the size and increasing the effic-
ience (and cost) of the machines.
..Increases in the speed, capacity
and corresponding size of compu-
ters and their signals are ulti-
mately limited by the speed of
light, Goldstine explained.
Light, according to Einstein's
theory, cannot travel any faster
than 186,000 miles per second-
nor can anything else, including
the electronic signals within a
computer.
With these practical limitations,
"it is pretty obvious" that if com-
puters are to operate at the rate
of one computation per 1000 mil-
lionth of a second (a millimicro-
second), then the limits to how
big a computer segment can get
OF. J. PHILIP WERNETTE
, predicts business slump
rof. J. Philip Wernette of the
versity business administration
:ol told a meeting of the Colo-
o Bankers Association Satur-
that business may slacken
iewhat for the remainder of
), largely because the Federal
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COLD WAR VICTIM:
East and West Vie for A fghanistan
is about six inches to a foot on a
side, the length a signal can travel
-in a millimicrosecond, Goldstine
explained.
Computer design advances in
the past 20 years have not been
matched by developments in pro-
gramming and mathematical
theory, Goldstine noted.
Programmers have increased
their ability to use machines only
about ten times since the days of
ENIAC, but this has not kept up
with advances in the technology
of computer design.
Theory Lacking
"There is no theory (to help) in
the programming field," he said,
"and none seems imminen.t"
But mathematics of the type
required to solve problems on corn-
puting machines (numerical ap-
alysis) has "advanced even less
than programming," he continued.
"It is a serious problem; while
technology has advanced greatly,
htis type of mathematics is the
same as it was in the days of
Gauss (a famed German mathe-
matician who died in 1855).
"The advances one could expect
in numerical analysis have not
come about."
However, the computers them-
selves have had only a limited
usefulness to pure mathemati-
clans (as opposed to engineers
or applied mathematicians), he
noted.,
Help Mathematicians
In 1948, Goldstein and the late
John Von Neumann pointed out
computers could best help mathe-
maticians by providing heuristic
insights (insights leading to fur-
ther investigation and solution of
the problem).
"Very little in that direction has
ben done to this point," he said.
But computers have been of
little help because they rigidly
limit mathematicians in extreme-
ly difficult situations. For instance,
computers limit them to a finite
number of steps--a serious inhi-
bition to a mathematician--and
to a small enough number of steps
to fit a computer program, large
as it is. Besides, the solution must
be accomplished by the computer
in a reasonable length of time.
"This is why the numerical
analysis is so hard," he pointed
out.
In addition, the computer can
handle only so many digits and
numbers have to be rounded off.
Any error resulting then must be
carrided over perhaps millions of
computations, meanwhile accumu-
lating more possible error.
tion, noted that more than half
the college entrants in the nation
were drawn from high school
graduates below the level of the
top 30 per cent in ability.
. He suggested that the four-year
colleges have not yet appreciated
the role of the junior colleges and
technical institutes.
He 'also challenged the public
attitude that he said "fails to
acknowledge that occupations for
which less formal education is
needed are more satisfying to the
interests of many individuals.",
Tests Narrow
Current testing procedures, ac-
cording to Donald Mackinnon, di-
rector of the Institute of Per-
Colloq uium
To Examine,
Interpretation
sonality Assessment and Research
at the University of California,
are too narrow.
By selecting only those from the
right side of the tracks and the
"right" social background, he said,
many students with high levels of
creativity who may have been un-
derprivileged in their early years
are overlooked.
There was a similar reaction
from Stouffer of Harvard, who
said he considered it a "disgrace to
America" that so many youngsters
were deprived of a good educa-
tion because they had gone to
"schools that do not have the re-
sources or the imagination to
cope with the problem."
An example of what can be done
in this area was described by
Daniel Schreiber, coordinator of
the Higher Horizons Program of
the New York City Board of Edu-
cation.
Adds Incentive
This program, which was started
in 1956 in one junior high school
in an underprivileged- area, has
spread to more than forty. It pro-
vides an enriched curriculum, in-
cluding many cultural advantages
the youngsters ordinarily would
not experience, and it has acted
as an incentive for them to remain
in school.
While much talent is lost before
it ever reaches college, the main
concern of the colloquium was
that more is lost in college than
between high school and college.
Dropouts High
"If you look at the top 30 per
cent of our children in academic
ability," Monro noted, "you will
find that about 90 per cent of the
boys and girls graduate from high
school; about two-thirds of the
boys and half the girls get to col-
lege; and about half the boys and
one-third of the girls finally gradu-
ate from college.
"The number of individuals in
this able group who do not finish
college, who drop out of educa-
tion along the way, is now over
400,000 a year.",
The number of individuals in the
top 10 per cent who do not finish
college, he said, is more than 125,-
000 a year.
Monro, in summing up the con-
ference, said that despite efforts
of the College Scholarship Serv-
ice, there was still "fierce and ex-
pensive competition for top schol-
ars in good schools and no co-
operative effort worth the name
for the discovery and encourage-
ment of buried talent."
(Reprinted by Special Permission
of The New York Times)
;° ,A Pwownt ht *k$ ET
Ends
dnesday
From the director
of "The Robe"
ai
From the producer
of "A Man Called Peter"...
SAMUEl G.GENGEL
CJNEMASCOPE
COLOR by DE LUXE s,
AT THE COOL 4
MCH IGAN
(EDITOR'S NOTE: Antiquated
Afghanistan was bypassed by mod-
ern tmes until the United States
and Russia each decided they
wanted the strategically placed
Asian nation on their side in the
cold war. Since then, Afghanistan's
economy has taken a leap and At-
ghans find themselves beset on
both sides by helpful friends anx-
ious to spend money.)
By WATSON SIMS
Associated Press News Analyst
KABUL, Afghanistan-The cold
war means different things to dif-
ferent people.
In America, it brings higher
taxes to support foreign aid. In
Russia it translates into fewer
consumer goods at home to make
up for Soviet benefience abroad.
For speech-making diplomats on
both sides of the Iron Curtain,
it's something to deplore.
But for the people of Afghani-
stan, it means manna from
heaven.
Before the world's two greatest
powers began competing for her
friendship, Afghanistan was one
of the world's most backward
countries. The average Afghan,
herding his sheep from one pas-
ture to another as the seasons
changed, earned less than $50 per
year.
Texas-Sized Nation
Fewer than one in five could
read. There were virtually no roads
and the only way to get around
this Texas-sized country was by
camel, donkey or afoot.
The cold war changed that.
The change began in 1946 when
the United States export-import
bank loaned the first $21 million
in a program for agricultural de-
velopment of the vast Helmand
Valley in southern Afghanistan.
The ante on this project has since
been boosted to $49 million.
Since 1950 America has granted
or loaned $51 million to develop
transportation in this once track-
less country.
Airport Goes Up
'II________ __
..
I I
I
An international airport cap-
able of handling the biggest jet
planes is nearing completion at
Kandahar under American super-
vision.
Nearly a hundred United States
education experts are modernizing
a school system which for cen-
turies depended on scanty instruc-
tion by religious scholars.
But this is only part of the pic-
ture, for the United States is not
- Afghanistan's only benefactor.
With no visible sings of dismay,
the Afghans discovered in 1954
that Russia also was interested in
their development.
The first sign was a comparative
handful of rubles-about $5 mil-
lion worth-for industrial devel-
opment. Then, in 1955, Moscow,
granted $100 million worth of
credits in a single stroke.
U.S., USSR Link Roads
While American highway engi-
neers link Kabul with Preshawar
and Kandahar, Soviet technicians
are laying roads down from the
Soviet border to Kabul and in a
great arc around the western bor-
der to join the American highway
at Kandahar.
A country which a decade ago
depended primarily upon camel
-
paths will soon be spanned by
macadam throughout its length
and breadth.'
Soviet technicians have built a
huge military airport at Bagram,
30 miles from Kabul, and are
modernizing Kabul's civil airport
to handle the latest jets.
Soviets Build Silo
Soviet experts have built glass,
coal briquette, fruit processing,
textile and fertilizer plants and
three automobile repair shops.
Moscow has contributed wheat,
trucks, automobiles and busses. It
has erected a silo, a flour mill and
a bakery which provides one-
fourth of Kabul's daily bread.
Fifteen years ago Kabul's streets
were rarely touched by foreign
feet. Now the American commun-
ity alone totals around 600. The
Soviet community is even larger.
Where does it all lead? What
does each side expect to get from
aid programs which, taken to-
gether, must amount to about $40
for each of Afghanistan's 12 mil-
lion men, women and children?
Selfless Motives Given
When Soviet Prime Minister
Nikita Khrushchev came to Kabul
in March, he blandly asserted that
Russia seeks only to help a friend-
ly neighboring country.
He said Moscow would not try
to impose its way of life on Af-
ghanistan. Equally selfless motives
were professed in Kabul three
months earlier by President
Dwight D. Eisenhower.
This has not kept Afghanistan
altogether out of East-West argu-
ments, and here the Russians
have often won points in Kabul
by keeping silent.
The government has been far
less pleased by Western observa-
tions on the Soviet effort in Af-
ghanistan, particularly the claim
by some journalists that Afghani-
stan is lost to Communism,
No Strings Wanted
This pains and angers Prime
Minister Daud.
"I don't understand it," he said
in an interview. "If we took help
only -from one side one might
argue that we had infringed out
neutrality But we need all the
help we can get, and we'll take it
from anyone who is willing to give
it: But so long, and only so long,
as no strings are attached."
The West does not want Af-
ghanistan to become a Communist
wedge between India and the mid-
dle East. Russia, sharing nearly
1,500 miles of border with Af-
ghanistan, does not want this
country to follow its Moslem
neighbors, Pakistan and Iran, into
t Western military camp.
On both sides, as well as in the
middle, there is agreement that
the cold war manna could not fall
on a more needy country.
i
PROF. L. LAMONT OKEY
oral interpretation
Prof. L. Lamont Okey of the
speech department will discuss
"Literary Research in Oral In-
terpretation," at today's speech
colloquium at 3:00 in the Rack-
ham building.
The colloquia, which will also
meet on the next three consecu-
tive Tuesdays, features Prof. Hugh
Norton, speaking' on "Theatre in
West Germany;" Prof. Garnet
Garrison, on "The Challenge of
Educational TV;" and finally,
Prof. G. E. Densmure, on "The
1960 Presidential Campaign."
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