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No One’s Got A Clue What’s Next On Iran

T

he intense reactions to President
Donald Trump’s decision not to
certify Iran’s compliance with
the nuclear agreement earlier this month
obscure a rather obvious fact: No one has
any clue what is actually going to happen.
Unfortunately, that appears to
include Trump himself.
Reactions were predictable
from all corners.
Iran hawks in the United
States cheered, including
Republicans who voted against
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA) and have never
accepted the logic of President
Daniel B.
Barack Obama’s strategy to
Shapiro
prioritize the nuclear issue and
ensure Iran is kept at least one
year from a breakout for over a
decade.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu, of course, praised Trump’s
“courageous decision” as a chance to fix
the “bad deal” and confront Iran’s regional
aggression and sponsorship of terrorism.
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies, which
share Israel’s view of Iran as the preemi-
nent regional threat, also praised Trump’s
move.
Meanwhile, other members of the P5+1
nations who are parties to the deal were
politely contemptuous of the president’s
decision.
The leaders of France, Germany, the
United Kingdom and the European Union
distanced themselves from Trump’s strat-
egy, making clear that they, while open to
trying to constrain destabilizing Iranian
actions, remain fully committed to the
JCPOA.
Russia and China also protested that
Iran is upholding its obligations under
the deal and there is no basis for decer-

tification or withdrawal.
And congressional Democrats, even
some who had voted against the JCPOA,
urged the president not to take any
action that would undermine the deal
and vowed to block congressional action
that would do the same. Echoing
former Israeli security officials
with whom they have consulted,
they argue that even if the deal
should be strengthened and Iran
must be confronted in other
areas, there is no benefit to the
United States to release Iran
from the deal’s constraints on its
nuclear program.
The bizarre thing is that none
of those reacting really under-
stand what will happen next
because Trump has been so
unclear about his strategy. So
people fill in the holes, projecting onto it
their own wishes or fears.
Will Trump convince Congress in
the next 60 days to add “trigger points”
for reimposing nuclear sanctions, even
while U.S. and Israeli intelligence agen-
cies and international International
Atomic Energy Agency inspectors main-
tain that Iran is in compliance with its
obligations?
Republicans in Congress largely seem
unenthusiastic about Trump dump-
ing this decision in their lap. Most,
like House Foreign Affairs Committee
Chairman Ed Royce, call for tough
enforcement of the existing deal, not
unilateral U.S. action (whether by
Congress or the president) that could
violate it and cause Iran to pull out, with
the U.S. taking much of the interna-
tional blame.
Trump asserted that if Congress does
not take such action, he will then ter-

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minate the agreement — essentially a
“threat” to release Iran from its obliga-
tions under the deal.
The logic of doing so, when Iran is
in compliance, is as yet unexplained.
Perhaps he believes that such threats
will convince Iran to agree to modifica-
tions of the agreement, such as length-
ening the term of key prohibitions (the
sunset provisions) on aspects of Iran’s
nuclear program.
But will he have the leverage to get
Iran to agree to such terms? It seems
highly unlikely when he has none of the
international support and solidarity
that were a defining feature of the P5+1
negotiations with Iran.
There is no indication that the Trump
administration has engaged in any
of the diplomatic consultations that
usually precede such an important
shift. Many key positions in the State
Department remain vacant, and Trump
demonstrates neither the inclination
nor the know-how to get European,
Russian and Chinese leaders to join
his strategy. If such efforts have been
undertaken, they have clearly, thus far,
been ineffective.
So Trump’s cheering section is cel-
ebrating an announcement that scarcely
qualifies as a strategy, much less one
that has been well-thought through. It
is entirely unclear if Congress will act,
and if so, how; whether Trump himself
is committed to go as far as killing the
deal; whether key allies and P5+1 part-
ners will play along; and whether Iran
will be willing to agree. Other than that,
the strategy is all set.
But Trump skeptics are also project-
ing to an extent.
What will happen in reality? Maybe
very little. The sum total of Trump’s

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approach might well be to get tougher
on Iran over ballistic missiles and sup-
port for terrorists (actions which are
much easier to support), while leav-
ing the JCPOA essentially in place and
launching a longer-term diplomatic
approach to extend its sunset provisions
and strengthen inspection protocols.
These are also worthy goals, and the
only question is whether Trump will
be trying to pursue them with reduced
leverage because of his unilateral
approach.
But the risk of miscalculation with
such an uncoordinated strategy is
high. No wonder my former colleague,
Richard Nephew, a brilliant diplomat
and one of the U.S. negotiators with
Iran during the Obama administration,
summed up the feeling of many skep-
tics, using Twitter to address supporters
of Trump’s approach who claim he will
improve on the JCPOA’s flaws: “That is
what you have promised. We are owed a
‘better deal.’ That is what we — and cer-
tainly I — will hold you to. Good luck.”
But those in the arena cannot afford
to leave it to Trump.
Republican and Democratic members
of Congress must now use their own
leverage with the administration to try
to steer this reckless action back onto
safer ground that preserves the JCPOA
and develops a real strategy to extend
its benefits, strengthen it as needed
and maintain international — and not
just regional — support for confronting
Iran’s destabilizing activities. •

Daniel B. Shapiro is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow
at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel
Aviv. He served as U.S. ambassador to Israel from
July 2011 until the end of the Obama administra-
tion.

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