views commentary No One’s Got A Clue What’s Next On Iran T he intense reactions to President Donald Trump’s decision not to certify Iran’s compliance with the nuclear agreement earlier this month obscure a rather obvious fact: No one has any clue what is actually going to happen. Unfortunately, that appears to include Trump himself. Reactions were predictable from all corners. Iran hawks in the United States cheered, including Republicans who voted against the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and have never accepted the logic of President Daniel B. Barack Obama’s strategy to Shapiro prioritize the nuclear issue and ensure Iran is kept at least one year from a breakout for over a decade. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, of course, praised Trump’s “courageous decision” as a chance to fix the “bad deal” and confront Iran’s regional aggression and sponsorship of terrorism. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies, which share Israel’s view of Iran as the preemi- nent regional threat, also praised Trump’s move. Meanwhile, other members of the P5+1 nations who are parties to the deal were politely contemptuous of the president’s decision. The leaders of France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union distanced themselves from Trump’s strat- egy, making clear that they, while open to trying to constrain destabilizing Iranian actions, remain fully committed to the JCPOA. Russia and China also protested that Iran is upholding its obligations under the deal and there is no basis for decer- tification or withdrawal. And congressional Democrats, even some who had voted against the JCPOA, urged the president not to take any action that would undermine the deal and vowed to block congressional action that would do the same. Echoing former Israeli security officials with whom they have consulted, they argue that even if the deal should be strengthened and Iran must be confronted in other areas, there is no benefit to the United States to release Iran from the deal’s constraints on its nuclear program. The bizarre thing is that none of those reacting really under- stand what will happen next because Trump has been so unclear about his strategy. So people fill in the holes, projecting onto it their own wishes or fears. Will Trump convince Congress in the next 60 days to add “trigger points” for reimposing nuclear sanctions, even while U.S. and Israeli intelligence agen- cies and international International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors main- tain that Iran is in compliance with its obligations? Republicans in Congress largely seem unenthusiastic about Trump dump- ing this decision in their lap. Most, like House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce, call for tough enforcement of the existing deal, not unilateral U.S. action (whether by Congress or the president) that could violate it and cause Iran to pull out, with the U.S. taking much of the interna- tional blame. Trump asserted that if Congress does not take such action, he will then ter- Contributing Writers: Joshua Lewis Berg, Ruthan Brodsky, Rochel Burstyn, Suzanne Chessler, Annabel Cohen, Don Cohen, Shari S. Cohen, Shelli Liebman Dorfman, Adam Finkel, Stacy Gittleman, Stacy Goldberg, Judy Greenwald, Ronelle Grier, Esther Allweiss Ingber, Allison Jacobs, Barbara Lewis, Jennifer Lovy, Rabbi Jason Miller, Alan Muskovitz, David Sachs, Karen Schwartz, Robin Schwartz, Steve Stein, Joyce Wiswell Arthur M. Horwitz Publisher / Executive Editor ahorwitz@renmedia.us F. Kevin Browett Chief Operating Officer kbrowett@renmedia.us | Editorial Managing Editor: Jackie Headapohl jheadapohl@renmedia.us Story Development Editor: Keri Guten Cohen kcohen@renmedia.us Arts & Life Editor: Lynne Konstantin lkonstantin@renmedia.us Editorial Assistant: Sy Manello smanello@renmedia.us Senior Columnist: Danny Raskin dannyraskin@sbcglobal.net Contributing Editor: Robert Sklar rsklar@renmedia.us | Advertising Sales Sales Director: Keith Farber kfarber@renmedia.us minate the agreement — essentially a “threat” to release Iran from its obliga- tions under the deal. The logic of doing so, when Iran is in compliance, is as yet unexplained. Perhaps he believes that such threats will convince Iran to agree to modifica- tions of the agreement, such as length- ening the term of key prohibitions (the sunset provisions) on aspects of Iran’s nuclear program. But will he have the leverage to get Iran to agree to such terms? It seems highly unlikely when he has none of the international support and solidarity that were a defining feature of the P5+1 negotiations with Iran. There is no indication that the Trump administration has engaged in any of the diplomatic consultations that usually precede such an important shift. Many key positions in the State Department remain vacant, and Trump demonstrates neither the inclination nor the know-how to get European, Russian and Chinese leaders to join his strategy. If such efforts have been undertaken, they have clearly, thus far, been ineffective. So Trump’s cheering section is cel- ebrating an announcement that scarcely qualifies as a strategy, much less one that has been well-thought through. It is entirely unclear if Congress will act, and if so, how; whether Trump himself is committed to go as far as killing the deal; whether key allies and P5+1 part- ners will play along; and whether Iran will be willing to agree. Other than that, the strategy is all set. But Trump skeptics are also project- ing to an extent. What will happen in reality? Maybe very little. The sum total of Trump’s | Production By FARAGO & ASSOCIATES Manager: Scott Drzewiecki Designers: Kelly Kosek, Amy Pollard, Michelle Sheridan, Susan Walker | Detroit Jewish News Chairman: Michael H. Steinhardt President/Publisher: Arthur M. Horwitz ahorwitz@renmedia.us Chief Operating Officer: F. Kevin Browett kbrowett@renmedia.us Controller: Craig R. Phipps Account Executives : Wendy Flusty, Annette Kizy Sales Manager Assistant Karen Marzolf Social Media Producer Andrea Gusho | Business Offices Billing Coordinator: Pamela Turner | Fulfillment Joelle Harder jharder@renmedia.us approach might well be to get tougher on Iran over ballistic missiles and sup- port for terrorists (actions which are much easier to support), while leav- ing the JCPOA essentially in place and launching a longer-term diplomatic approach to extend its sunset provisions and strengthen inspection protocols. These are also worthy goals, and the only question is whether Trump will be trying to pursue them with reduced leverage because of his unilateral approach. But the risk of miscalculation with such an uncoordinated strategy is high. No wonder my former colleague, Richard Nephew, a brilliant diplomat and one of the U.S. negotiators with Iran during the Obama administration, summed up the feeling of many skep- tics, using Twitter to address supporters of Trump’s approach who claim he will improve on the JCPOA’s flaws: “That is what you have promised. We are owed a ‘better deal.’ That is what we — and cer- tainly I — will hold you to. Good luck.” But those in the arena cannot afford to leave it to Trump. Republican and Democratic members of Congress must now use their own leverage with the administration to try to steer this reckless action back onto safer ground that preserves the JCPOA and develops a real strategy to extend its benefits, strengthen it as needed and maintain international — and not just regional — support for confronting Iran’s destabilizing activities. • Daniel B. Shapiro is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. He served as U.S. ambassador to Israel from July 2011 until the end of the Obama administra- tion. | Departments General Offi ces: 248-354-6060 Advertising: 248-351-5107 Advertising Fax: 248-304-0049 Circulation: 248-351-5120 Classifi ed Ads: 248-351-5116 Advertising Deadline: Monday, 2 p.m. Editorial Fax: 248-304-8885 Deadline: All public and social announcements must be typewritten and received by noon Tuesday, nine days prior to desired date of publication. 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