Opinion
OTHER VIEWS
Arab Population Forecasts Wrong
Bennett Zimmerman
Roberta Seid
Michael L. Wise
Special Commentary
Los Angeles/JTA
rab demographic
momentum has
become part of the
Israeli lexicon. Under this theory,
the Israei Arab sector, with its
rapid population growth, will
soon overwhelm the Jewish
population, as "baby boom" gen-
erations of Arabs give birth to an
even greater number of children.
Arab births will accelerate even
if birth rates remain stable or
drop slightly because such a large
number of women will enter
their childbearing years.
But the evidence is now in,
A
and it shows something surpris-
ing: Demographic momentum
indeed exists — but among Jews,
not Arabs.
Jewish births grew rapidly,
from 80,000 per year in 1995
to 96,000 in 2000 and to more
than 103,000 in 2003. The
demographic outlook for Jews
. has been improving because the
Jews' total fertility rate, or the
number of children a woman is
likely to bear over her lifetime,
has been rising.
In 2005, the Jewish fertility
rate reached 2.7, the highest of
any advanced industrial nation.
While the fervently Orthodox
contributed to this rise, secular
Israelis and immigrants from the
former Soviet Union also experi-
enced increasing fertility.
When returning Israelis who
have lived abroad — an average
of 20,000 per year from 2001 to
2004 — and aliyah are added to
the mix, the demographic weight
of the Jewish sector grows more.
In contrast, the absolute num-
ber of births in the Israeli Arab
sector grew from 36,500 in 1995
to 40,800 in 2000. After rising
slightly to a record 41,400 births
in 2003, the number of Israeli
Arab births fell in 2004 for the
first time, back to 40,800.
The overall Israeli Arab fertil-
ity figure — which includes
Muslim and Christian Arabs and
Druse — declined from 4.4 in
2000 to 4.0 in 2004.
Israel recently enacted policies
that are impacting the high-
est fertility sectors of the Arab
population. In 2004, the govern-
ment stopped granting stipends
for every child born to a family,
restricting them to the first two
children. There was an immedi-
ate drop in Bedouin pregnancies.
Predictions Flawed
Demographers who concentrated
on past patterns in the Israeli
Arab population missed the evi-
dence of a slowdown in the Arab
sector and the demographic
revolution occurring among
Jews. By focusing on the past,
forecasters anticipated demo-
graphic momentum in the wrong
sector and produced an outlook
that couldn't even get the present
correct, let alone the future.
The problem with demo-
graphic predictions is that they
apply yesterday's or today's fertil-
ity rates to tomorrow's forecast.
To have any relevance, a forecast
must constantly be updated with
the most-current information and
to reflect any changes in trend.
Earlier childbearing patterns
may have little relationship to
the number of children the next
generation will have.
Applying Muslim fertility
rates from the 1960s — nine to
10 births per woman — Israeli
demographers had projected
that Israeli Arabs would overtake
Israeli Jews by 1990.
When the fertility rate
dropped to 5.4 in the early 1980s
and 4.7 in the second half of the
decade, demographers applied
this rate to their next series of
forecasts. However, by 2005, the
Breaking Barriers, Pursuing Peace
p
feces of ceiling dangled
at the end of electri-
cal cords hanging over
carnage below ... lifeless bodies,
pools of blood, the injured shout-
ing for help." Tears rolled down
my face as I read about a recent
suicide bombing in Tel Aviv and
the destruction in Gaza.
Only four days before, I
walked -the streets of Tel Aviv,
buoyant, from the affirmative
response our award-winning
project Reuniting the Children
of Abraham, a multimedia
toolkit for peace, received from
Jewish and Arab Israelis and
Palestinian. Only four days
before, I had walked arm in arm
with Tali Ben Josef, a ninth-
generation Israeli and manag-
ing director of Reuniting the
Children of Abraham, as well
as our new friends: Israeli Jews,
Israeli Arabs and Palestinians
from Gaza and the West Bank.
We walked and talked as
Christians, Muslims and Jews
filled with hope that our coming
together for an international con-
ference, Creative Approaches to
Looking at Conflict, could make
a difference. We understood the
trauma and suffering in our
communities ... yet we were
26
May 18 • 2006
optimistic that we had the tools
to help heal our much-fractured
communities in the Holy Land
and throughout the world.
The weeklong conference April
2-3 in Jerusalem and April 3-6 in
Tel Aviv was attended by 300 psy-
chotherapists and psychologists
from around the world, including
20 from Gaza and the West Bank.
It was an exhilarating experience
for me as an American Jewish
woman to present Reuniting
the Children of Abraham proj-
ect that was inspired by my
Muslim interfaith partner Imam
Abdullah El Amin and imple-
mented with support from Victor
Begg and our Detroit-based .
National Council for Community
Justice Interfaith Partners: the
University of Michigan Art of
Citizenship Program, Michigan
Humanities Council, Fetzer
Institute, Fisher-Cummings
Family Fund and numerous gen-
erous friends.
At the conference, presenters
revealed innovative tools and
processes that utilize the creative
arts of drama, music and art
to foster healing the wounds of
conflict. We shared in roundtable
discussions our successes in
creating understanding and the
challenges we face
Metro Detroit
in mitigating the
knew firsthand
ignorance fear and
about guns that
hate that is destroy-
killed loved ones
ing our shared
and that the
vision of a safer
conflict in the
world for all our
Holy Land had a
children.
profound effect
In Tel Aviv,
on teen's conti-
Tali and I also
nents away from
Bernda Naomi
connected with
the conflict. What
Melisse from Peace
Rosenberg
touched and opened
Child Israel, a 17-
Community View
their hearts was
year-old theater
-
that both their play
arts organization that brings
and ours had the participants be
together Jewish and Arab teens
the other. In the Holy Land, or
to meet, share their stories and
Metro Detroit, if we are willing to
subsequently write and per-
walk in the others' shoes, we can
form a play on the subject of
begin to understand the pain,
their experiences. At Kibbutz
the fears and the dreams of those
Ein Hahoresh, north of Tel Aviv,
we perceive as strangers or even
we watched the dress rehearsal
enemies and begin the process
of their current play and then
of healing the wounds of our
had the opportunity to show
tremulous history.
our documentary Reuniting the
We drove to Jerusalem with
Children of Abraham, the stories
some anxiety mixed with our
of how Christian, Muslim, and
anticipation of bringing together
Jewish teens from Metro Detroit
visionaries who share our dream
came together to talk about their of creating inter-religious and
hopes, dreams and fears in the
intercultural understanding. The
shadow of 9-11 and the Middle
day before, a suicide bomber
East conflict.
dressed as a religious Jew blew
The Peace Child teens were
up a family in a car when they
shocked and touched by our
stopped to offer him a ride.
teens; shocked that teens from
There are many other meet-
ings, workshops and encounters
from this trip that will bring
hope to those of you who have
lost hope in the possiblity of
peace and inspire others to
engage in building bridges of
understanding. I would love the
opportunity to share more of
the details of the trip and how to
bring our program to mosques,
synagogues, churches, organiza-
tions and communities that want
to learn how it is possible break
down the barriers of ignorance,
fear and hate.
With the financial support
of the Michigan Humanities
Council a quick grant may be
used to bring Reuniting the
Children of Abraham to syna-
gogues, churches, mosques,
organizations and communi-
ties. Visit the Web site
www.michiganhumanities.
org/professionals . Also visit
thechildrenofabrahamproject.
org .
Brenda Rosenberg of Bloomfield
Hills is executive producer
Reuniting the Children of Abraham.
Her e-mail address is
pathways2peacermcomcast.net.