Opinion OTHER VIEWS Arab Population Forecasts Wrong Bennett Zimmerman Roberta Seid Michael L. Wise Special Commentary Los Angeles/JTA rab demographic momentum has become part of the Israeli lexicon. Under this theory, the Israei Arab sector, with its rapid population growth, will soon overwhelm the Jewish population, as "baby boom" gen- erations of Arabs give birth to an even greater number of children. Arab births will accelerate even if birth rates remain stable or drop slightly because such a large number of women will enter their childbearing years. But the evidence is now in, A and it shows something surpris- ing: Demographic momentum indeed exists — but among Jews, not Arabs. Jewish births grew rapidly, from 80,000 per year in 1995 to 96,000 in 2000 and to more than 103,000 in 2003. The demographic outlook for Jews . has been improving because the Jews' total fertility rate, or the number of children a woman is likely to bear over her lifetime, has been rising. In 2005, the Jewish fertility rate reached 2.7, the highest of any advanced industrial nation. While the fervently Orthodox contributed to this rise, secular Israelis and immigrants from the former Soviet Union also experi- enced increasing fertility. When returning Israelis who have lived abroad — an average of 20,000 per year from 2001 to 2004 — and aliyah are added to the mix, the demographic weight of the Jewish sector grows more. In contrast, the absolute num- ber of births in the Israeli Arab sector grew from 36,500 in 1995 to 40,800 in 2000. After rising slightly to a record 41,400 births in 2003, the number of Israeli Arab births fell in 2004 for the first time, back to 40,800. The overall Israeli Arab fertil- ity figure — which includes Muslim and Christian Arabs and Druse — declined from 4.4 in 2000 to 4.0 in 2004. Israel recently enacted policies that are impacting the high- est fertility sectors of the Arab population. In 2004, the govern- ment stopped granting stipends for every child born to a family, restricting them to the first two children. There was an immedi- ate drop in Bedouin pregnancies. Predictions Flawed Demographers who concentrated on past patterns in the Israeli Arab population missed the evi- dence of a slowdown in the Arab sector and the demographic revolution occurring among Jews. By focusing on the past, forecasters anticipated demo- graphic momentum in the wrong sector and produced an outlook that couldn't even get the present correct, let alone the future. The problem with demo- graphic predictions is that they apply yesterday's or today's fertil- ity rates to tomorrow's forecast. To have any relevance, a forecast must constantly be updated with the most-current information and to reflect any changes in trend. Earlier childbearing patterns may have little relationship to the number of children the next generation will have. Applying Muslim fertility rates from the 1960s — nine to 10 births per woman — Israeli demographers had projected that Israeli Arabs would overtake Israeli Jews by 1990. When the fertility rate dropped to 5.4 in the early 1980s and 4.7 in the second half of the decade, demographers applied this rate to their next series of forecasts. However, by 2005, the Breaking Barriers, Pursuing Peace p feces of ceiling dangled at the end of electri- cal cords hanging over carnage below ... lifeless bodies, pools of blood, the injured shout- ing for help." Tears rolled down my face as I read about a recent suicide bombing in Tel Aviv and the destruction in Gaza. Only four days before, I walked -the streets of Tel Aviv, buoyant, from the affirmative response our award-winning project Reuniting the Children of Abraham, a multimedia toolkit for peace, received from Jewish and Arab Israelis and Palestinian. Only four days before, I had walked arm in arm with Tali Ben Josef, a ninth- generation Israeli and manag- ing director of Reuniting the Children of Abraham, as well as our new friends: Israeli Jews, Israeli Arabs and Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank. We walked and talked as Christians, Muslims and Jews filled with hope that our coming together for an international con- ference, Creative Approaches to Looking at Conflict, could make a difference. We understood the trauma and suffering in our communities ... yet we were 26 May 18 • 2006 optimistic that we had the tools to help heal our much-fractured communities in the Holy Land and throughout the world. The weeklong conference April 2-3 in Jerusalem and April 3-6 in Tel Aviv was attended by 300 psy- chotherapists and psychologists from around the world, including 20 from Gaza and the West Bank. It was an exhilarating experience for me as an American Jewish woman to present Reuniting the Children of Abraham proj- ect that was inspired by my Muslim interfaith partner Imam Abdullah El Amin and imple- mented with support from Victor Begg and our Detroit-based . National Council for Community Justice Interfaith Partners: the University of Michigan Art of Citizenship Program, Michigan Humanities Council, Fetzer Institute, Fisher-Cummings Family Fund and numerous gen- erous friends. At the conference, presenters revealed innovative tools and processes that utilize the creative arts of drama, music and art to foster healing the wounds of conflict. We shared in roundtable discussions our successes in creating understanding and the challenges we face Metro Detroit in mitigating the knew firsthand ignorance fear and about guns that hate that is destroy- killed loved ones ing our shared and that the vision of a safer conflict in the world for all our Holy Land had a children. profound effect In Tel Aviv, on teen's conti- Tali and I also nents away from Bernda Naomi connected with the conflict. What Melisse from Peace Rosenberg touched and opened Child Israel, a 17- Community View their hearts was year-old theater - that both their play arts organization that brings and ours had the participants be together Jewish and Arab teens the other. In the Holy Land, or to meet, share their stories and Metro Detroit, if we are willing to subsequently write and per- walk in the others' shoes, we can form a play on the subject of begin to understand the pain, their experiences. At Kibbutz the fears and the dreams of those Ein Hahoresh, north of Tel Aviv, we perceive as strangers or even we watched the dress rehearsal enemies and begin the process of their current play and then of healing the wounds of our had the opportunity to show tremulous history. our documentary Reuniting the We drove to Jerusalem with Children of Abraham, the stories some anxiety mixed with our of how Christian, Muslim, and anticipation of bringing together Jewish teens from Metro Detroit visionaries who share our dream came together to talk about their of creating inter-religious and hopes, dreams and fears in the intercultural understanding. The shadow of 9-11 and the Middle day before, a suicide bomber East conflict. dressed as a religious Jew blew The Peace Child teens were up a family in a car when they shocked and touched by our stopped to offer him a ride. teens; shocked that teens from There are many other meet- ings, workshops and encounters from this trip that will bring hope to those of you who have lost hope in the possiblity of peace and inspire others to engage in building bridges of understanding. I would love the opportunity to share more of the details of the trip and how to bring our program to mosques, synagogues, churches, organiza- tions and communities that want to learn how it is possible break down the barriers of ignorance, fear and hate. With the financial support of the Michigan Humanities Council a quick grant may be used to bring Reuniting the Children of Abraham to syna- gogues, churches, mosques, organizations and communi- ties. Visit the Web site www.michiganhumanities. org/professionals . Also visit thechildrenofabrahamproject. org . Brenda Rosenberg of Bloomfield Hills is executive producer Reuniting the Children of Abraham. Her e-mail address is pathways2peacermcomcast.net.