3
According to Danny Leshem,
Israel — and of the certainty of an
Israeli response this time round. a specialist in non-conventional
Contrary to claims made dur- weapons at Tel Aviv University's
ing and immediately after the Center for Strategic Studies, Sad-
Gulf War, it is now believed that dam Hussein "will not remain
the international coalition failed passive" in face of a U.S.-led at-
to destroy Iraq's missile stockpile tack and "he might try to hit ei-
or missile launchers. Western in- ther Saudi Arabia or Israel or
telligence sources in London now both."
Dr. Leshem acknowledged
estimate that Saddam Hussein
has perhaps ten missile launch- that the Iraqi leader would not
ers and retains up to 200 en- have the same incentive to draw
hanced Scud ballistic missiles Israel into the conflict because
there was no prospect of break-
capable of reaching Israel.
Israel endured a total of 39 ing up the Arab coalition, but he
missile attacks from Iraq dur- cautioned: "Saddam does not al-
ing the Gulf War without retal- ways operate according to the
laws of logic."
iating.
Political analysts note that the
In an interview on Israel Ra-
dio last weekend, former Israeli Iraq leader continues to tell his
chief of staff and current Deputy countrymen that they are en-
Defense Minister Mordechai Gur gaged in the "mother of all bat-
warned Israelis to be prepared tles" • against Western
for a renewed missile onslaught imperialism and Arab reac-
if the United States and its West- tionary forces, and he remains
ern allies resume hostilities determined to project an image
to the Arab masses as the sole
against Iraq.
Military sources in Israel this Arab leader prepared to confront
week noted that a fresh strike Israel on the battlefield.
Since the end of the Gulf War,
against Iraq would not enjoy ac-
tive Arab support beyond Saudi Israel has gone to great lengths
Arabia and Kuwait, and in view to prepare its citizens more ef-
of the lack of sensitivity over pre- fectively against missile attacks
serving an Arab war coalition, Is- and the possible use of chemical
rael would not feel inhibited weapons. The civil defense com-
about launching "a massive re- mand has been reorganized and
there are plans to distribute more
sponse over a wide area."
effective gas masks and chemi-
cal warfare antidotes.
While there was widespread
support for the Israeli govern-
ment's policy of restraint during
the Gulf War, there is now a gen-
eral consensus that Israel must
immediately retaliate against
any further missile attacks.
Haifa University's Amatzia
Baram, regarded as Israel's fore-
most specialist on Iraq, believes
Saddam is aware of these senti-
ments and has deliberately re-
frained from attacking Israel in
recent public pronouncements.
"He knows that the chances
of retaliation from Israel now is
100 percent," said Dr. Baram.
"He also knows that Israel has
acquired a great deal more
knowledge about his military ca-
pabilities than we had during the
Gulf War.
"If we decide to act now, we
will be more effective. We will not
limit ourselves to hitting the mis-
siles. It will be deeper and more
painful. I believe Saddam un-
derstands this position very
clearly."
or the first time since
the American-led Mid-
dle East peace process
began in earnest late
last year, there is a
genuine feeling of op-
timism in Washington
,
about
the
prospects for signifi-
is
cant progress.
Much of this optimism hinges
Saddam Hussein: A bigger threat than ever.
Saddam A
Reminder
Of Old
r Middle
East
Should
Iraq attack
Israel
again, this
L' time there
would be
no holding
r, back.
‘7,
DOUGLAS DAVIS
Foreign Correspondent
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IF