In Washington,
Op timism Is In
ment before the elections."
President Bush's domestic po-
litical strategies could also play
out in a variety of ways in the
Middle East peace process.
For Mr. Bush, the political bot-
tom line is his low standing in
the polls and the continuing
volatility of the electorate in the
wake of Ross Perot's political col-
lapse.
Mr. Bush desperately needs a
major foreign policy success to re-
store some of the luster he
achieved during the Persian Gulf
war. And currently, the Middle
East peace process is the only
game in town.
`The next three or four months
represent a period in which the
policy interests of the peace pro-
cess and the political interests of
the Bush administration are con-
verging," Mr. Raffel said. "Bush
clearly has the political incentive
to achieve some quick progress
in the peace process prior to
November. Israeli leaders and
the Arab countries are aware of
the benefit of the peace process, to Gov. Clinton, whose focus has this."
putting it on a more even foot- been almost entirely domestic.
This fact, in combination with
ing," said Dan Mariaschin, di- And this factor, too, could help the recent gestures by the new
rector of international and public jump-start the peace process.
Rabin government in Jerusalem,
affairs for B'nai B'rith. "The
"For the Arabs, Clinton is an adds to the pressure on the Arab
American political situation could unknown quantity," said Martin governments to make some re-
put more pressure on the Arab Raffel, assistant executive vice ciprocal gestures that could pro-
parties to show some quick chair of the National Jewish vide a shot of adrenaline to the
progress. They seem to be getting Community Relations Advisory talks.
that message from both parties Council and head of the group's
"The spotlight in Washington
now."
Israel task force. "They know has definitely been directed to
Arab leaders are generally as- Bush. They may feel some extra the Arab side," Mr. Raffel said.
sumed to prefer a Bush victory. pressure to get on with the au- "It seems to me that they recog-
The incumbent is a familiar fig- tonomy negotiations and make nize that they will have to re-
ure to Arab leaders — in contrast some progress toward an agree- spond to the words and actions
of Rabin with words and actions
of their own, possibly on issues
like the boycott."
Despite Mr. Clinton's re-
markable lead in recent polls,
most political professionals fore-
see a close election in November.
in which the Jewish concentra-
tion in several key states could
prove pivotal.
Those projections are expect-
ed to contribute to a quick agree-
ment on Israel's request for loan
guarantees, and a great public
show of warmth when Prime
Minister Yitzhak Rabin visits
Mr. Bush , factors that should
President Bush: Buying Jewish votes with loan guarantees?
increase Israel's comfort level in
the negotiations and encourage
the new Israeli government to go
even further in cooperating with
the U.S.-led peace process.
But Jewish Democrats are
worried that there could be too
much warmth at the Rabin-Bush
meetings — one more political
wrinkle in the unfolding Middle
East story.
Clinton forces have been work-
ing to arrange a meeting between
their champion and Mr. Rabin as
a show of political balance. At the
same time, they are sending clear
Current political needs
are seen as the key to achieving
Middle East peace.
JAMES D. BESSER
Washington Correspondent
on political factors.
hi the short run, according to
a number of observers, American
presidential politics could be a
shot in the arm for the negotia-
tions and a balm for the often-
troubled relationship between
Washington and Jerusalem.
In the long run, however, that
new momentum can be sus-
tained only if the talks produce
quick results. If there is little
progress, those same political fac-
tors could erect new and
formidable obstacles on the road
to peace.
The recent Democratic Na-
tional Convention sent a clear
message to Arab leaders: U.S.
Middle East policy is unlikely to
tilt in their direction if Arkansas
Gov. Bill Clinton is victorious in
November, despite Mr. Clinton's
cadre of dovish foreign policy ad-
visers.
"The Democrats' pro-Israel
plank is clearly pro-peace," said
Jonathan Jacoby, president of
Americans for Peace Now. "The
message that all parties ought to
receive is that a Democratic ad-
ministration will stay engaged in
the process. The Democratic plat-
form demonstrates that the
peace process has broad bi-par-
tisan support. While there are
differences in style, there is little
difference in substance."
The Democrats, while deplor-
ing the deterioration in U.S.-Is-
raeli relations under Mr. Bush's
stewardship, were extraordinar-
ily careful not to criticize the
Bush-Baker peace process dur-
ing the convention — a message
that has been heard in Arab cap-
itals.
"Oddly, we could be seeing
American politics rebounding to
net ppm-um
144
Gov. Clinton: Jewish support could be pivotal for him.
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