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FRIDAY, DECEMBER 11, 1987
Continued from preceding page
scored at the bottom of the
ranking. Senators who scored
especially high included Paul
Sarbanes (D MD).
-
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High Interest
Peace Conference
Update
Is the idea of an interna-
tional peace conference of-
ficially dead within the inner
sanctums of the Reagan
White House? Or has the no-
tion merely been placed on a
back burner while the Ad-
ministration deals.with more
pressing foreign affairs priori-
ties, including the conclusion
of a major INF treaty and the
conflict in the Persian Gulf?
The question has surfaced
again because the question of
the U.S. position on peace
talks has again become a ma-
jor weapon in the ongoing
debate in Jerusalem. The
forces of Shimon Peres insist -
that the Reagan administra-
tion still favors talks under
some kind of international
umbrella; Prime Minister
Yitzhak Shamir claims that
the issue is dead and buried
in Washington.
Barry Rubin, a fellow at the
Johns Hopkins School of In-
ternational Studies and an
expert in Middle East diplom-
acy, disagreed with the idea
that an. international peace
conference has been aban-
doned. But he does regard the
recent silence from the Ad-
ministration as a reflection of
the vexing political realities
of the issue.
"The fact is, if the Ad-
ministration thought there
was a really good chance of
getting somewhere, they'd be
more willing to push the idea
right now," Rubin said recent-
ly. "But the Israeli govern-
ment is hopelessly split on
the issue, and the Jordanians
are not being as forthcoming
as they have appeared in
their public relations. So
there's a perception that this
is not a very good thing to
press right now, in terms of
the likelihood of success."
Rubin also argued that the
idea of an international con-
ference has lost some of its
momentum because of a fail-
ure to go beyond the "what if
stage, both here and in Israel.
"What people seem to be
missing is the question of.
what type of conference we
want it to be, what the details
should be. We have to discuss
the substance of it — and the
time to do that is now"
The Israelis, he said, are
concerned about the way U.S.
foreign policy works. "They
fear that once the idea is ac-
cepted, there will be tremen-
dous pressure to be successful
— and the way to be success-
ful, according to the way the
State Department usually
does things, is to make con-
cessions. So we have to make
decisions about the details of
the talks now: what are the
things we want to accom-
plish? What do we want to
avoid? These are the issues
we have not dealt with yet."
Martin Indyk, director of
the Washington Institute for
Near East Policy, took a more
pessimistic view. "In terms of
my understanding, the Ad-
ministration's attitude is that
it's dead in the water. They
were reluctant partners in
this process in the first place;
Shultz made it clear that he
was interested in it only as a
route to direct negotiations.
He was impressed by what
Hussein and Peres had
agreed to last April. But he
wasn't prepared to make it a
sufficiently high priority."
According to Indyk, a major
problem is that King Hus-
sein, contrary to some earlier
evaluations, genuinely wants
an ongoing Soviet presence in
the peace process, something
the Administration will not
accept. "Shultz's position all
along has been that this kind
of Soviet position is not
something that would be pro-
ductive in bringing about
direct negotiations."
The other part of the equa-
tion, Indyk says, has to do
with Israeli politics. "Another
factor is the desire not to in-
tervene in an Israeli internal
conflict. As soon as it became
a case of Peres fighting
Shamir over it, Shultz was
very wary of getting involved.
Had Peres delivered the votes
in the cabinet, which he tried
to do, it would have been a dif-
ferent story. When he failed,
the Administration reas-
sessed the situation and
realized that the reality was
that they had to work with
Shamir."
The recent debate in Israel
over the U.S. position, Indyk
said, has more to do with
Israeli politics than with
diplomacy. "A lot of the recent
talk is for domestic purposes.
Peres wants to take the ques-
tion of the international con-
ference to the people, and get
a vote on it. My own feeling
is that Shamir would be hap-
py to go along with that.
Peres needs to make the argu-
ment that it's very much
alive; Shamir is convinced
that the idea of an interna-
tional conference is dead in
Washington. I think Peres is
making a big mistake."
A Jackson-Vanik
End Run?
Secretary of Commerce
William Verity, whose recent
confirmation battle brought
into question his support for
the concept of a link between
trade concessions to the
Soviets and human rights im-