Page 4 - The Michigan Daily - Wednesday, June 19, 1985
Computers aid history research
IN BRIEF
From United Press International
(Continued from Page 1)
computer research in his study about
educational reform in Grand Rapids
at the turn of the century. Challenging
the popular notion that vocational
training in high schools was a working
class movement, Angus spent two
years collecting his data. By coding
100 voters from each of Grand Rapids'
45 districts, feeding in information
such as the size of their family, age,
occupation, place of birth, and paren-
ts' place of birth, and analyzing the
election results, Angus made an in-
teresting discovery.
"THE SINGLE most important
predictor was that blue-collar
workers voted against the reforms,"
he said. With his extensive research
and the aid of a computer, Angus had
refuted a popular myth.
"There's no way it could have been
done by hand," Angus said. "The
computer allows you to add an ad-
ditional element of precision about
who did whatwhen. This haslong
remained a case of speculation
throughout history."
"No one in their right mind would
have done it without a computer," he
said.
PROFESSOR Maris Vinovskis, who
used a computer to study the fertility
rate in the 19th century, agrees. "The
computer is very significant. It allows
us to do work we couldn't have done
before," Vinovskis -aid.
Vinovskis' current project, studying
education in Newberry, Mass., in-
volves coding 1,300 individuals using
100 different variables. "The project
would be impossible to do by hand,"
he said.
Angus notes that tremendous ad-
vances have been made through com-
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puters and quantitative analysis. "WE HAVE a lot mofe knowledge.
"One of the most exciting things about But forecasting is a whole different
computer analysis (of the census) is game. We don't have many accurate
what it's telling us about the family," models for prediction, but we have
he said. still made great strides in the last 25
"THE MYTH of the extended farm years," he said.
family and the nuclear urban family Vinovskis is hopeful about the
has been shot to hell," he said. prospect of computer forecasting.
Popular assumptions about how birth "We can develop social science
control affects the fertility rate and models and test them in the past. If
the relationship between political par- it's a good model, then someone can
ty affiliation and wealth have been use it to look into the future," he said.
challenged with these methods, Angus "We'll be able to run on a computer
said. the proposed policy to simulate the
Quantitative analysis has shown consequences of the program, and see
that "the differences (in party af- how it works," Angus said. Resear-
filiation) turn out to be religious and chers can "anticipate the secondary
that religion is much more important and tertiary consequences of social
than class," he said. policy before we get into the stupid
"Some of the things we believed for things," he said.
years are falling like match sticks in
the light of computer analysis," he
said. Police Notes,
ANGUS cautioned, however, that
"we're still at a stage where quan-
titative analysis plays a negative role, Break in reported
not a positive one." It works more to
discredit and refute old theories and A home in the 300 block of E. Jeffer-
models than to create new ones, he son was broken into sometime bet-
said. ween 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. Monday.
A computer can check out the ac- The thief entered through a window
curacy of a given model, buta human and took a small amount of cash and
being must create it. "New theories controlled substances valued at less
get created out of creative activity, than $80, police said.
then they are tested empirically with
a computer," he said. "When we find Wallet stolen
out how to use (the computer) in a A wallet was stolen from an unat-
positive sense, then the breakthrough tended backpack in the Legal
will come," he said. . Research building Monday between 4
"The hypothesis, thinking, and logic and 6 p.m. The theft resulted in a $23
are all traditional," agreed Vinovskis. loss, said campus security director
"It's our ability to test the hypothesis Leo Heatley.
on large data sets that is new." -Laura Bischoff
Goods sent to Nicaragua
(Continued fromPagei) presume that the phrase was meant to
der, calling it a "meaningless refer to the Contras, rebels fighting
document." the Sandinista government.
Members said they sent the But LASC members reason that the
package to El Nuevo Diaro to "call at- phrase applies "to those institutions
tention to the fact that an independent which defend Nicaragua against ef-
press does exist and operates freely in forts by the United States to destroy
Nicaragua." their national sovereignty."
"(El Nuevo Diario) sees itself as a Therefore, members said, LASC is not
paper not aligned with a party," said in violation of the trade restrictions.
Laurie Rossman, a LASC member IF LASC is found to be guilty of
who spent three months in Nicaragua violating the trade restrictions, mem-
last year and spoke with officials from bers could be sentenced to up to 10
the newspaper. years in prison and a $50,000 fine.
THE CONTENTS of the box - in- Spokesmen for the Justice Depar-
cluding solar calculators, rubber tment said they weren't sure if the
bands, and paper clips - may violate committee was violating the order.
U.S. trade restrictions, and cannot Baker said that subverting an em-
qualify as legal aid because the value bargo through a third country is an
of the package exceeds $200. even more serious offense, and if the
REAGAN'S executive order says committee could face additional
that humanitarian aid and goods sent penalties for sending the goods
to "the organized Democratic resist- through Canada.
ance" are exempt from the restric- The prospect of stiff fines or im-
tions. prisonment doesn't faze committee
Although Reagan's order doesn't members. "When you consider the
specify what the "democratic lives lost in Nicaragua...considering
resistance" is, LASC members going to jail is small," Rossman said.
Astronauts launch
satellite for Arabs
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla.-
Discovery's astronauts, including
a Saudi Arabian prince, launched a
civilian communications satellite
yesterday for 21 Arab nations and
the Palestine Liberation
Organization.
Saudi Arabia owns the major
share of the satellite system at 29
percent. The other four major
shareholders are Kuwait, Iraq,
Qatar, and Moammar Khadafy's
Libya.
A low-power laser will be fired
from Hawaii at the shuttle
Discovery today in the first known
space test of President Reagan's
"Star Wars" missile defense
technology.
Senate adds licensed
drivers to jury pool
LANSING-The House ap-
proved legislation broadening jury
pools to include all licensed
drivers.
Approved 92-3 and sent to the
Senate was the voter registration
bill which will add lists of licensed
drivers to jury pools, which
currently are drawn from voter
registration rolls.
About 90 percent of the state's
adults hold driver's licenses, while'
only 73 percent to 85 percent are
registered to vote.
Two plead innocent
to spying charges
SAN FRANCISCO-In federal
courts a continent apart, two men
pleaded innocent yesterday to
charges of spying for the Soviet
Union and their lawyers promised
to put on combative defenses.
Meanwhile, federal law enfor-
cement sources said another ac-
cused spy suspect-22 year-old
Navy yeoman Michael Walker-is
cooperating with authorities who
are trying to unravel an espionage
ring that may have been dispen-
sing damaging military secrets for
20 years. Michael Walker is the son
of the accused ringleader of the
spy ring, John Walker Jr.
In San Francisco, retired Navy
radioman Jerry Whitworth, 45,
pleaded innocent to a charge of
conspiring over an eight-year
period of passing U.S. naval
secrets to the Russians-for
payments totaling $328,000
through the elder Walker.
Prime drops to 9.5%
NEW YORK-The nation's
largest banks yesterday lowered
their prime lending rate to 9 per-
cent from 10 percent, dropping the
benchmark rate to its lowest since
September 1978.
Morgan Guaranty Trust was fir-.
st to move and Bankers Trust,
Chase Manhattan, Chemical Bank,
Irving Trust, Marine Midland, all
New York, and San Francisco's
Bank of America and Wells Fargo
Bank were among large banks that
followed. The lower rate is expec-
ted to spread throughout the in-
dustry.
The prime began moving up
from 9% percent on Sept.27, 1978.
Church maintainties
with South Africa
GRAND RAPIDS-Delegates to
the Christian Reformed Church
Synod yesterday voted down a
measure which would have restric-
ted fellowship ties with the Refor-
med Church of South Africa.
Last year's synod of the 300,000
member Grand Rapids-based
denomination instructed a church
committee to study breaking ec-
clesiastical ties with the 15,000-
member South Africa church, af-
ter the 1984 delegation declared
apartheid a sin and any theological
backing for it heresy.
The 160 delegates from the
United States and Canada atten-
ding this year's decision-making
session debated the issue earlier
this week, according to Synod news
officer Bob Meyering, who said a
motion from the floor Monday to
sever ties with the South Africa
denomination was ruled out of or-
der.
LESBIAN-GAY PRIDE WEEK '85 ANN ARBOR
June 16 - 22, 1985
"Unity Strength and Love"
Wed.-Thu. June 19-20, 7:00 & 8:30 p.m.
Pride Week Workshops
MICHIGAN UNION, MAIN FLOOR NEAR U CLUB
PRIDE NFFK SPONSORS NtI tDF: GI F, E M,1SA
Informat ion,icl. future events: 763-4186
Vol. XCV - No. 22-S
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