Page 4 - The Michigan Daily - Wednesday, June 19, 1985 Computers aid history research IN BRIEF From United Press International (Continued from Page 1) computer research in his study about educational reform in Grand Rapids at the turn of the century. Challenging the popular notion that vocational training in high schools was a working class movement, Angus spent two years collecting his data. By coding 100 voters from each of Grand Rapids' 45 districts, feeding in information such as the size of their family, age, occupation, place of birth, and paren- ts' place of birth, and analyzing the election results, Angus made an in- teresting discovery. "THE SINGLE most important predictor was that blue-collar workers voted against the reforms," he said. With his extensive research and the aid of a computer, Angus had refuted a popular myth. "There's no way it could have been done by hand," Angus said. "The computer allows you to add an ad- ditional element of precision about who did whatwhen. This haslong remained a case of speculation throughout history." "No one in their right mind would have done it without a computer," he said. PROFESSOR Maris Vinovskis, who used a computer to study the fertility rate in the 19th century, agrees. "The computer is very significant. It allows us to do work we couldn't have done before," Vinovskis -aid. Vinovskis' current project, studying education in Newberry, Mass., in- volves coding 1,300 individuals using 100 different variables. "The project would be impossible to do by hand," he said. Angus notes that tremendous ad- vances have been made through com- PUT US TO THE TEST!: Is, onet pen days vnns ,peneelA l8e weekRe5e SE 85pa s lldl10Rs * Come .Th15Ctsoan R " eS aerals consoan udated tell4ImC s bResearh Epe " o ou YsA.sove 12 locatins. " transe Pi, i S EDUCATIONAL CENTER, LTD TESTPREmARTIoN SPECIAUSTSsINCE 93 Call Days, Evenings & Weekends 662.3149 203 E. Hoover Ann Arbor, M 48104 Pemanent Centers In More Than For Informaton Aoet ter Centers OUTSIE N.Y. STATE CALL TOLL FREEI800-223-172 In New York State Stanley H Kaplan Educational Center Ltd puters and quantitative analysis. "WE HAVE a lot mofe knowledge. "One of the most exciting things about But forecasting is a whole different computer analysis (of the census) is game. We don't have many accurate what it's telling us about the family," models for prediction, but we have he said. still made great strides in the last 25 "THE MYTH of the extended farm years," he said. family and the nuclear urban family Vinovskis is hopeful about the has been shot to hell," he said. prospect of computer forecasting. Popular assumptions about how birth "We can develop social science control affects the fertility rate and models and test them in the past. If the relationship between political par- it's a good model, then someone can ty affiliation and wealth have been use it to look into the future," he said. challenged with these methods, Angus "We'll be able to run on a computer said. the proposed policy to simulate the Quantitative analysis has shown consequences of the program, and see that "the differences (in party af- how it works," Angus said. Resear- filiation) turn out to be religious and chers can "anticipate the secondary that religion is much more important and tertiary consequences of social than class," he said. policy before we get into the stupid "Some of the things we believed for things," he said. years are falling like match sticks in the light of computer analysis," he said. Police Notes, ANGUS cautioned, however, that "we're still at a stage where quan- titative analysis plays a negative role, Break in reported not a positive one." It works more to discredit and refute old theories and A home in the 300 block of E. Jeffer- models than to create new ones, he son was broken into sometime bet- said. ween 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. Monday. A computer can check out the ac- The thief entered through a window curacy of a given model, buta human and took a small amount of cash and being must create it. "New theories controlled substances valued at less get created out of creative activity, than $80, police said. then they are tested empirically with a computer," he said. "When we find Wallet stolen out how to use (the computer) in a A wallet was stolen from an unat- positive sense, then the breakthrough tended backpack in the Legal will come," he said. . Research building Monday between 4 "The hypothesis, thinking, and logic and 6 p.m. The theft resulted in a $23 are all traditional," agreed Vinovskis. loss, said campus security director "It's our ability to test the hypothesis Leo Heatley. on large data sets that is new." -Laura Bischoff Goods sent to Nicaragua (Continued fromPagei) presume that the phrase was meant to der, calling it a "meaningless refer to the Contras, rebels fighting document." the Sandinista government. Members said they sent the But LASC members reason that the package to El Nuevo Diaro to "call at- phrase applies "to those institutions tention to the fact that an independent which defend Nicaragua against ef- press does exist and operates freely in forts by the United States to destroy Nicaragua." their national sovereignty." "(El Nuevo Diario) sees itself as a Therefore, members said, LASC is not paper not aligned with a party," said in violation of the trade restrictions. Laurie Rossman, a LASC member IF LASC is found to be guilty of who spent three months in Nicaragua violating the trade restrictions, mem- last year and spoke with officials from bers could be sentenced to up to 10 the newspaper. years in prison and a $50,000 fine. THE CONTENTS of the box - in- Spokesmen for the Justice Depar- cluding solar calculators, rubber tment said they weren't sure if the bands, and paper clips - may violate committee was violating the order. U.S. trade restrictions, and cannot Baker said that subverting an em- qualify as legal aid because the value bargo through a third country is an of the package exceeds $200. even more serious offense, and if the REAGAN'S executive order says committee could face additional that humanitarian aid and goods sent penalties for sending the goods to "the organized Democratic resist- through Canada. ance" are exempt from the restric- The prospect of stiff fines or im- tions. prisonment doesn't faze committee Although Reagan's order doesn't members. "When you consider the specify what the "democratic lives lost in Nicaragua...considering resistance" is, LASC members going to jail is small," Rossman said. Astronauts launch satellite for Arabs CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla.- Discovery's astronauts, including a Saudi Arabian prince, launched a civilian communications satellite yesterday for 21 Arab nations and the Palestine Liberation Organization. Saudi Arabia owns the major share of the satellite system at 29 percent. The other four major shareholders are Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and Moammar Khadafy's Libya. A low-power laser will be fired from Hawaii at the shuttle Discovery today in the first known space test of President Reagan's "Star Wars" missile defense technology. Senate adds licensed drivers to jury pool LANSING-The House ap- proved legislation broadening jury pools to include all licensed drivers. Approved 92-3 and sent to the Senate was the voter registration bill which will add lists of licensed drivers to jury pools, which currently are drawn from voter registration rolls. About 90 percent of the state's adults hold driver's licenses, while' only 73 percent to 85 percent are registered to vote. Two plead innocent to spying charges SAN FRANCISCO-In federal courts a continent apart, two men pleaded innocent yesterday to charges of spying for the Soviet Union and their lawyers promised to put on combative defenses. Meanwhile, federal law enfor- cement sources said another ac- cused spy suspect-22 year-old Navy yeoman Michael Walker-is cooperating with authorities who are trying to unravel an espionage ring that may have been dispen- sing damaging military secrets for 20 years. Michael Walker is the son of the accused ringleader of the spy ring, John Walker Jr. In San Francisco, retired Navy radioman Jerry Whitworth, 45, pleaded innocent to a charge of conspiring over an eight-year period of passing U.S. naval secrets to the Russians-for payments totaling $328,000 through the elder Walker. Prime drops to 9.5% NEW YORK-The nation's largest banks yesterday lowered their prime lending rate to 9 per- cent from 10 percent, dropping the benchmark rate to its lowest since September 1978. Morgan Guaranty Trust was fir-. st to move and Bankers Trust, Chase Manhattan, Chemical Bank, Irving Trust, Marine Midland, all New York, and San Francisco's Bank of America and Wells Fargo Bank were among large banks that followed. The lower rate is expec- ted to spread throughout the in- dustry. The prime began moving up from 9% percent on Sept.27, 1978. Church maintainties with South Africa GRAND RAPIDS-Delegates to the Christian Reformed Church Synod yesterday voted down a measure which would have restric- ted fellowship ties with the Refor- med Church of South Africa. Last year's synod of the 300,000 member Grand Rapids-based denomination instructed a church committee to study breaking ec- clesiastical ties with the 15,000- member South Africa church, af- ter the 1984 delegation declared apartheid a sin and any theological backing for it heresy. The 160 delegates from the United States and Canada atten- ding this year's decision-making session debated the issue earlier this week, according to Synod news officer Bob Meyering, who said a motion from the floor Monday to sever ties with the South Africa denomination was ruled out of or- der. LESBIAN-GAY PRIDE WEEK '85 ANN ARBOR June 16 - 22, 1985 "Unity Strength and Love" Wed.-Thu. June 19-20, 7:00 & 8:30 p.m. Pride Week Workshops MICHIGAN UNION, MAIN FLOOR NEAR U CLUB PRIDE NFFK SPONSORS NtI tDF: GI F, E M,1SA Informat ion,icl. future events: 763-4186 Vol. XCV - No. 22-S The Michigan Daily (ISSN 0745-967 X) is published Tuesday through Sunday during the fall and winter terms and Tuesday through Saturday during the spring and summer terms by students at The University of Michigan. Subscription rates: September through April - $35 outside the city; May through August - $8.00 in Ann Arbor, $15.50 outside the city. Second class postage paid at Ann Arbor, Michigan. 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