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February 04, 2013 - Image 11

Resource type:
The Michigan Daily, 2013-02-04

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3B - Monday, February 4, 2013

S 3

The Michigan Daily - michigandaily.com

Men's Basketball Mchigan 66, Northwestern 46
Women's Basketball: Minnesota 82, Michigan 67
F R IDAY ( F EB. '1)
Women's Tennis: Michigan 4, Tennessee 3
Women's Track: Notre Dame Meyo Invitational
Men's Track: Notre Dame Meyo Invitational
Men's Swimming: Michigan 251, Ohio State 75
Men's Ice Hockey: Michigan 3, Michigan State 2
Wrestling: Michigan 30, Indiana13
Men's Tennis: Michigan 5, Princeton 2
Women's Track: Notre Dame Meyo Invitational
Men's Track: Notre Dame Meyo Invitational (non-
Men' Swimming: Michigan 251, Ohio State 75
Men's Lacrosse:Michigan14, Marquette 6
Women' Gymnastics:Michigan196.675, Iowa
Men's Ice Hockey:Michigan5, Michigan State 2
Men's Lacrosse: Michigan11, Dennison 4
M sGymasti Mhiga 439", Califomria
Men'sBasketbl:InIdina 81, Michigan73
Men's Tennis: Michigan 5, Wake Forest 2
Wrestling: Purduel19, MichigaTn
Wen's TennisN Noth Colna 5, Michigan 2
WRmen's BasEtball: Michigan at Michigan State
7:30 p.m. (East Lansing)
Men's Basketball: Michigan vs:Ohio State 9:00
Women's Basketball: Michigan vs. Illinois 7:00
MT's Gymnastics: Winter Cup TBA (Las Vegas,
Softball: Michigan vs. Marshall 12:15 p.m. (Tampa'
Men's Track: SPIRE Invitational 2:00 p.m.(Geneva,
Women's Track: SPIRE Invitational 2:00 p.m.
(Geneva, Oh.)
Men's Track Husky Classic 4:00 p.m. (Seattle,
Women's Swimming: Michigan vs. Toledo S:00
Wrestling: Michigan vs. Ohio State 6:00 p.m.()
Women's Gymnastics: Michigan at Ohio State
7:00p.m. (ColuTbA, Oh.)
Men's Ice Hockey: Michigan at Notre Dame 7:35
p.m.(South Bend, Ind.)
Men's Gymnastics: Winter Cup TBA (Las Vegas,
Women's Tennis: ITA National Team Indoor
Championships TBA (Charlottesville, Va.)
Men's Golf: Big Ten Match Play Championship
TBA (Bradenton, Fla.)

Sophomore guard Trey Burke and the Michigan basketball team are ranked No.3 in the inaugural edition of the DDI.
al Dominance Index:
Rankings Reimagined

1. FLORIDA (18-2) 2.912
3. MICHIGAN (20-2) 2.031
5. LOUISVILLE (18-4) 1.91
7. DUKE (19-2) 1.888
9. PITTSBURGH (18-5) 1.753
11. SYRACUSE (18-3) 1.705
13. VCU (18-5) 1.481
15. OHIO STATE (17-4) 1455
17.MISSISSIPPI (17-4) 1.286
19. BUCKNELL (19-4) 1.225
21. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (20-4) 1.195
23. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (18-2) 1.129
W BA~tI 'I~~y M # 1

For the Daily
College basketball is madness.
Top five teams lose decidedly to
unranked teams almost weekly.
Ascendancy to the No. 1 throne is
quick and occupancy is brief.
But there is a method to the
madness. Everything that has
happened, is happening, and will
happen in college basketball can
be represented by numbers.
Understanding these numbers
and how to use them is key to
APBRmetrics (think sabermet-
rics for basketball)..
APBRmetrics attempt to model
and predict outcomes in bas-
ketball. But they're just that-a
model. APBR metrics are devoid
of any human intuition, relying
entirely on predetermined calcu-
So, naturally, when these
models and algorithms predict
games more accuratelythan their
human counterparts, people are
Wanting to join in this rivalry
between man and machine, I
abandoned my born species and
began work on my own model to
rank teams almost two years ago.
After hundreds of hours of test-

ing, I am releasing my model to
the public.
My model is but one of many in
the annals of APBRmetrics, but I
believe it to be the most accurate
model. Overthe pastseason, ithas
consistently predicted more than
75 percent of games correctly, a
rarely seen verism in college bas-
At its core, the model is sim-
ple-in fact, it only uses three fac-
tors: margin of victory, strength
of schedule, and home-court
advantage. These three factors
are thrown into the model and
mixed into algorithms, to pop out
whatI call the Dominance Rating.
The main thesis of my model
{ is that there isn't as much differ-
ence between a one-point win
and a one-point loss as human
voters tend to believe. Ithus treat
them similarly. The difference
between, say, a ten-point win and
a one-point win is much more sig-
nificant than between a one-point
Twin and a one-point loss.
My model assigns each game
played by a team a point value
as it were. All wins are assigned
positive values, all losses negative
values. The greater the margin
of victory, the greater the point
value. Strength of schedule (after

being put on an s-curve) and
home-court advantage are also
factors in the point value. A team's
final Dominance Rating is deter-
mined by the average of its points
assigned per game.
In my model, all 347 NCAA
Division-I men's basketball teams
are assigned a Dominance Rating.
I call the collective ranking of the
teams' Dominance Ratings the
Dominance Index.
It is my hope that the Domi-
nance Index will outperform
human metrics in terms of pre-
dictive power. Iseek validation to
my hypothesis that statistics can
represent all facets of basketball
(and sports as a larger whole).
The analysis of that hypoth-
esis will provide the foundation
of this blog. Through the course
of the season, I'll discuss what the
Dominance Index believes will
happen and-most of the time,
hopefully-why its prognosis was
correct. I also hope to touch on
various other elements of APBR-
metrics (such as efficiency and
adjusted field-goal percentage)
and give my take on their efficacy.
So sit back, relax and be pre-
pared to forget everything you've
been told about college basketball.
It's all wrong.



Men's Track: Husky Classic 8:00 a.m. PT (Seattle, BIG GAMES
Wash.) From Page 1B
Women's Swimming: Michigan Open 9:00 a.m.
Wome's Trak: SPIRE Invitational10:00 a.m. chances to slip
(Geneva, Oh.)
Men's Track: SPIRE Invitational10:00 a.m. to say this Feb.2
(Geneva, Oh.) deciding factor fo
Men's Basketball: Michigan at Wisconsin11:00 of the season?
R.'Tc'TI~diRT~iE~lOne loss isn't s(
Softball: Michiga at Forida Atlantic 11:15 a.m. Oels s'
(Tampa, Fla g fret about - it's s
Men's Swimming: Michigan at Michigan State Michigan coache
12:00 p.m.(East Lansing) preaching all seat
WoTn'Water Polo Mihigan at Long Beach game at a time.
Statt12:30p.m. PTl(Sae Dig)
Men's Lacrosse: Michigan vs. Penn State 1:00 "Teams are
p.m.() going to lose
Women's Rowing: Michigan at UCF 3:00 p.m. games, and
(Sarasota, Fla.) you have got to
Softball Michan atUSFA0 p m pTampa, Fla.) learn from it,"
Men'sIe Hockey Michiganeat Notr Dame 7:0
p.m. (SouthBend, Ind.) said Michigan
Women's Water Polo: Michigan at San Diego coach John
State or Santa Clara TBA (San Diego) Beilein. "(But
Womes Tennis ITA ational Team IndO bouncigaCk
Cham~pionEspsTBA(hrlottesville, Va.)l onigbc
Men's Golf: Big Ten Match Play Championship from a loss is) all
TBA (Bradenton, Fla.) be talking about.
Men's Gymnastics: Winter Cup TBA (Las Vegas) are) goingto see'

up, so w
game w
r the re
s have b
son, taki
we're go
(The plai
yes face

showed no emotion. Like Beilein,
he was disappointed, but nothing
more - that game was over, and
it was time to move on.
ho's The rest of the Wolverines
as the ' have a similar mentality, as well,
mainder and bouncing back from a loss is
something the Wolverines have
g to done nicely the past few years.
g the This loss hurts, but it doesn't
een mean the Wolverines are any
ng one less of a team than before. Burke
might've grimaced at a missed
shot or two,
and Hard-
away showed
You have to distaste for
. , .afew pivotal
irn from it. calls during
the game, but
Michigan, like
Indiana, is
ing to still one of the best teams in the
yers country.
s' from The Wolverines will move
room on from this loss, especially in
go an environment in which they
weren't supposed to win. They
er. We still have a Player of the Year
r on the candidate and a freshman class
victories that will just keep getting bet-
e very ter. They still have a strong shot
t dwell at a Big Ten championship and
eat us a positive outlook for the NCAA
tionally The Wolverines didn't lose
daway anything Saturday night, except
t during just a game.
pset as - Thomas can be reached
vay for at collthom@umich.edu or on
e, Burke Twitter at @colleenthomas_

From Page 1B
Beilein said when asked if he'd
like to see Robinson play more
aggressively. "That's something
that's a work in progress.
"It's just all part of it. We've
got to continue to try to ... recog-
nize what we're doing and (see)
how we can get Glenn more
But the game's biggest dispar-
ity came on the free throw line,
where Indiana displayed an
impressive propensity to get to
the charity stripe.
The Wolverines attempted
just seven free throws, while the
Hoosiers shot 22-of-25 from the
After trailing by as many as
15 points, Michigan (7-2 Big
Ten, 20-2 overall) showed the
first-half resilience it lacked in
Columbus ina loss to Ohio State
in January.
The Wolverines shot just
2-of-11 from 3-point range in
the first half, while the Hoo-
siers shot 50 percent from deep.
Burke and Zeller pulled their
weight early and often, with
Burke scoring a game-leading
14 points in the opening stanza,
while Zeller notched 11 points
to go along with six boards.
Though the Hoosiers owned
the first half, Burke stunned
the raucous arena by draining a
step-back jumper with just four

seconds remaining, allowing the
Wolverines to go into the locker
room trailing just 36-32.
After Indiana (8-1, 20-2) led
by double-digits for much of
the opening 20 minutes, Michi-
gan scored 17 of the half's final
25 points, including an 8-0 run,
to chip away at Indiana's lead.
The Hoosiers were held to just
16 points in the final 15 minutes
of the half after coming out fir-
ing in the opening five minutes.
Indiana scored 20 points in the
game's opening five minutes,
making its first six shots, includ-
ing four threes.
"I think we did a good job at
responding to their punch, we
just didn't get over the hump,"
Burke said. "That's something
that we're continuing to try to
make adjustments on and get
better at - just coming out and
making the first punch."
Just minutes into the second
half, Michigan tied the game on
a 3-pointer from Stauskas, but
Indiana followed with an 11-0
But just like in the first half,
the young Wolverines failed to
go away, responding with an.
11-2 run to bring the game back
to within two points with 11
minutes remaining.
Junior guard Tim Hardaway
Jr. chipped in with 18 points
and freshman forward Mitch
McGary played well, scoring 10
points and pulling down seven

But the rest of the Wolver-
ines' supporting cast - includ-
ing redshirt junior forward
Jordan, who was limited to just
two minutes after spraining his
ankle last weekend - failed to
produce enough offense to top-
ple the Hoosiers on the road.
With Kansas also losing Sat-
urday, Michigan could still find
itself ranked in Monday's top-
two spots.
Missed the
swimming meet?
Wont to read about
Yurchenkos and the
women's gymnastics
Love men's lax?

S U NDAY (F E8. 10)
Softball: Michigan vs. Samford 9:00 a.m. (Tampa,
Women's Basketball: Michigan at Purdue 12:00
p.m.(West Lafayette, Ind.)
Men's Tennis: Michigan at Duke12:00 p.m. (Dur-
ham, N.C.)
Wrestling: Michigan at Michigan State 2:00 p.m.
(East Lansing)
Womens Swiming: Michigan Open 6:00 p.m.
(RoceerRT Mich.)
Women's Water Polo: Bracket Play TBA (San
Diego, Calif.)
Women's Tennis ITA National Team Indoor
Championships TBA (Charlottesvlle, Va.)
Women's Water Polo: Bracket Play TBA (San
Women's Golf: Lady Puerto Rico Classic TBA (Rio
Grande, Puerto Rico)
- (*) All home events are eligible to earn points
for the Athletic Department's H.A..L program.
Big Ten Overall
Iodiaoa 8-) 20- 2
Michigan 7-2 20-2
Michigan State 7- 2 18 - 4
Ohio State 7-2 17 - 4
Wisconsin 6-3 15 -7
Minnesota 5-4 17 -5
Purdue 4-5 11 - 11
Northwestern 4-6 13 - 10
I owa 3-h 14 -8
Illinois 2- 7 15 - 8
Nebraska 2-8 11 - 12
Penn State 0-9 8 - 13

the coaches in the lockerj
tomorrow, we're going to.
through this film.
"It doesn't get any easi'
can't be patting each othe
back (because of) moralv
and things like that. We'r
disappointed, but we can'
on it. We can't let them b
You could see how emo
involved Burke, Tim Har
Jr., and their parents wer'
the game - frustration at
shots and calls, looking u
Indiana started to pull aw
good - but after the gam

From Page 1B
deep, and missed them all. The
Buckeyes were obviously target-
ing the sharpshooter - and it
worked.Against Indianaon Satur-
day, Jordan Hulls was tasked with
defending Stauskas. Though the
freshman hit three free throws
to tie the game at 40 early in the
second half, the Hoosiers' defense
contained him until late in the
game, when his 10 points didn't
matter much.
Like Stauskas, Robinson was
hounded by the defense most of
the night - he was guarded by

Victor Oladipo for the majority of
the game -and despite playing all
40 minutes, he rarely found the
ball or an open look.
The forward had four rebounds
- just 1.7 below his season average
- but his presence on the boards
was hardly felt throughout the
game. Robinson was also held to
just two points, which came in
the form of a dunk with 1:09 left
to play in the game. By that point,
Michigan's fate was all but sealed.
"(The Hoosiers), they hugged
the rails (Saturday), and kind of
made us win the game just from
the point guard and the center
position," said sophomore guard
Trey Burke. "We have to con-

tinue to try to get (Stauskas and
Robinson) good looks within our
offense. Indiana did a good job
denying them, and it was tough to
get them the ball."
But for every missed basket by
Stauskas and Robinson on Satur-
day, there was a rebound or steal
from forward Mitch McGary.
With redshirt junior forward
Jordan Morgan limited again -
he played just two minutes, and
redshirt sophomore forward Jon
Horford started in his place for
the second consecutive game -
McGary was again able to step up.
The freshman played a season-
high 28 minutes and tied a career
best with 10 points. McGary's

offensive production isn't usually
his strong suit, but his scoring and
defensive presence were the big-
gest aspects of his performance on
Though Indiana's Cody Zeller
was able to put up 19 points,
McGary did a good job holding
Zeller to tougher shots and was
able to be more physical with the
Hoosier sophomore. He also got a
couple of steals off Zeller, but one
area McGary wasn't happy with
in his game was Zeller's second-
chance points.
"I think we did a good job
defensively," McGary said.
"(Zeller) didn't get too many easy
buckets, but offensive rebounding,

I made a few mistakes boxing him
out while I was trying to help or
block a shot, and he got some easy
buckets there."
McGary also pulled downseven
rebounds and was able to keep up
with Zeller on the glass, proving
that the freshman is continuing
to improve his all-around game,
much to the pleasure of his coach.
"(McGary) certainly did (take
another step forward)," Beilein
said. "He was making some big
inputs in there. He has to continue
to learn how to use his body at the
right angles to guard in the post,
but he has a real good sense for
stealing the ball. I just liked the
way Mitch was playing in there."

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