3B - Monday, February 4, 2013 S 3 The Michigan Daily - michigandaily.com MICHIGAN ATHLETICS SCOREBOARD L A S T W E E K Men's Basketball Mchigan 66, Northwestern 46 THURSDAY (JAN. 31) Women's Basketball: Minnesota 82, Michigan 67 F R IDAY ( F EB. '1) Women's Tennis: Michigan 4, Tennessee 3 Women's Track: Notre Dame Meyo Invitational (non-scoring) Men's Track: Notre Dame Meyo Invitational (non-scoring) Men's Swimming: Michigan 251, Ohio State 75 Men's Ice Hockey: Michigan 3, Michigan State 2 Wrestling: Michigan 30, Indiana13 Men's Tennis: Michigan 5, Princeton 2 SATURDAY (FEB. 2) Women's Track: Notre Dame Meyo Invitational (non-scoring) Men's Track: Notre Dame Meyo Invitational (non- scoring) Men' Swimming: Michigan 251, Ohio State 75 Men's Lacrosse:Michigan14, Marquette 6 Women' Gymnastics:Michigan196.675, Iowa Men's Ice Hockey:Michigan5, Michigan State 2 Men's Lacrosse: Michigan11, Dennison 4 M sGymasti Mhiga 439", Califomria 413.400 Men'sBasketbl:InIdina 81, Michigan73 SUNDAY (FEB. 3) Men's Tennis: Michigan 5, Wake Forest 2 Wrestling: Purduel19, MichigaTn Wen's TennisN Noth Colna 5, Michigan 2 N E X T W E E K WRmen's BasEtball: Michigan at Michigan State 7:30 p.m. (East Lansing) TUESDAY (FEB. S) Men's Basketball: Michigan vs:Ohio State 9:00 THURSDAY (FEB. 7) Women's Basketball: Michigan vs. Illinois 7:00 P.M.(') MT's Gymnastics: Winter Cup TBA (Las Vegas, Nev.) F RIDAY (F EB. 8) Softball: Michigan vs. Marshall 12:15 p.m. (Tampa' Men's Track: SPIRE Invitational 2:00 p.m.(Geneva, Oh.) Women's Track: SPIRE Invitational 2:00 p.m. (Geneva, Oh.) Men's Track Husky Classic 4:00 p.m. (Seattle, WaRh.) Women's Swimming: Michigan vs. Toledo S:00 Wrestling: Michigan vs. Ohio State 6:00 p.m.() Women's Gymnastics: Michigan at Ohio State 7:00p.m. (ColuTbA, Oh.) Men's Ice Hockey: Michigan at Notre Dame 7:35 p.m.(South Bend, Ind.) Men's Gymnastics: Winter Cup TBA (Las Vegas, Women's Tennis: ITA National Team Indoor Championships TBA (Charlottesville, Va.) Men's Golf: Big Ten Match Play Championship TBA (Bradenton, Fla.) Sophomore guard Trey Burke and the Michigan basketball team are ranked No.3 in the inaugural edition of the DDI. al Dominance Index: Rankings Reimagined DAILY DOMINANCE INDEX TEAM DOMINANCE RATING 1. FLORIDA (18-2) 2.912 3. MICHIGAN (20-2) 2.031 5. LOUISVILLE (18-4) 1.91 7. DUKE (19-2) 1.888 9. PITTSBURGH (18-5) 1.753 11. SYRACUSE (18-3) 1.705 13. VCU (18-5) 1.481 15. OHIO STATE (17-4) 1455 17.MISSISSIPPI (17-4) 1.286 19. BUCKNELL (19-4) 1.225 21. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (20-4) 1.195 23. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (18-2) 1.129 W BA~tI 'I~~y M # 1 By MARK EDLUND For the Daily College basketball is madness. Top five teams lose decidedly to unranked teams almost weekly. Ascendancy to the No. 1 throne is quick and occupancy is brief. But there is a method to the madness. Everything that has happened, is happening, and will happen in college basketball can be represented by numbers. Understanding these numbers and how to use them is key to APBRmetrics (think sabermet- rics for basketball).. APBRmetrics attempt to model and predict outcomes in bas- ketball. But they're just that-a model. APBR metrics are devoid of any human intuition, relying entirely on predetermined calcu- lations. So, naturally, when these models and algorithms predict games more accuratelythan their human counterparts, people are surprised. Wanting to join in this rivalry between man and machine, I abandoned my born species and began work on my own model to rank teams almost two years ago. After hundreds of hours of test- ing, I am releasing my model to the public. My model is but one of many in the annals of APBRmetrics, but I believe it to be the most accurate model. Overthe pastseason, ithas consistently predicted more than 75 percent of games correctly, a rarely seen verism in college bas- ketball. At its core, the model is sim- ple-in fact, it only uses three fac- tors: margin of victory, strength of schedule, and home-court advantage. These three factors are thrown into the model and mixed into algorithms, to pop out whatI call the Dominance Rating. The main thesis of my model { is that there isn't as much differ- ence between a one-point win and a one-point loss as human voters tend to believe. Ithus treat them similarly. The difference between, say, a ten-point win and a one-point win is much more sig- nificant than between a one-point Twin and a one-point loss. My model assigns each game played by a team a point value as it were. All wins are assigned positive values, all losses negative values. The greater the margin of victory, the greater the point value. Strength of schedule (after being put on an s-curve) and home-court advantage are also factors in the point value. A team's final Dominance Rating is deter- mined by the average of its points assigned per game. In my model, all 347 NCAA Division-I men's basketball teams are assigned a Dominance Rating. I call the collective ranking of the teams' Dominance Ratings the Dominance Index. It is my hope that the Domi- nance Index will outperform human metrics in terms of pre- dictive power. Iseek validation to my hypothesis that statistics can represent all facets of basketball (and sports as a larger whole). The analysis of that hypoth- esis will provide the foundation of this blog. Through the course of the season, I'll discuss what the Dominance Index believes will happen and-most of the time, hopefully-why its prognosis was correct. I also hope to touch on various other elements of APBR- metrics (such as efficiency and adjusted field-goal percentage) and give my take on their efficacy. So sit back, relax and be pre- pared to forget everything you've been told about college basketball. It's all wrong. 25. OKLAHOMA STATE (15-5) 1.092 SATURDAY (FEB. 9) Men's Track: Husky Classic 8:00 a.m. PT (Seattle, BIG GAMES Wash.) From Page 1B Women's Swimming: Michigan Open 9:00 a.m. (Rochester) Wome's Trak: SPIRE Invitational10:00 a.m. chances to slip (Geneva, Oh.) Men's Track: SPIRE Invitational10:00 a.m. to say this Feb.2 (Geneva, Oh.) deciding factor fo Men's Basketball: Michigan at Wisconsin11:00 of the season? R.'Tc'TI~diRT~iE~lOne loss isn't s( Softball: Michiga at Forida Atlantic 11:15 a.m. Oels s' (Tampa, Fla g fret about - it's s Men's Swimming: Michigan at Michigan State Michigan coache 12:00 p.m.(East Lansing) preaching all seat WoTn'Water Polo Mihigan at Long Beach game at a time. Statt12:30p.m. PTl(Sae Dig) Men's Lacrosse: Michigan vs. Penn State 1:00 "Teams are p.m.() going to lose Women's Rowing: Michigan at UCF 3:00 p.m. games, and (Sarasota, Fla.) you have got to Softball Michan atUSFA0 p m pTampa, Fla.) learn from it," Men'sIe Hockey Michiganeat Notr Dame 7:0 p.m. (SouthBend, Ind.) said Michigan Women's Water Polo: Michigan at San Diego coach John State or Santa Clara TBA (San Diego) Beilein. "(But Womes Tennis ITA ational Team IndO bouncigaCk Cham~pionEspsTBA(hrlottesville, Va.)l onigbc Men's Golf: Big Ten Match Play Championship from a loss is) all TBA (Bradenton, Fla.) be talking about. Men's Gymnastics: Winter Cup TBA (Las Vegas) are) goingto see' up, so w game w r the re omethin omethin s have b son, taki 'C' lea we're go (The plai yes face showed no emotion. Like Beilein, he was disappointed, but nothing more - that game was over, and it was time to move on. ho's The rest of the Wolverines as the ' have a similar mentality, as well, mainder and bouncing back from a loss is something the Wolverines have g to done nicely the past few years. g the This loss hurts, but it doesn't een mean the Wolverines are any ng one less of a team than before. Burke might've grimaced at a missed shot or two, and Hard- away showed You have to distaste for . , .afew pivotal irn from it. calls during the game, but Michigan, like Indiana, is ing to still one of the best teams in the yers country. s' from The Wolverines will move room on from this loss, especially in go an environment in which they weren't supposed to win. They er. We still have a Player of the Year r on the candidate and a freshman class victories that will just keep getting bet- e very ter. They still have a strong shot t dwell at a Big Ten championship and eat us a positive outlook for the NCAA Tournament. tionally The Wolverines didn't lose daway anything Saturday night, except t during just a game. missed pset as - Thomas can be reached vay for at collthom@umich.edu or on e, Burke Twitter at @colleenthomas_ MICHIGAN From Page 1B Beilein said when asked if he'd like to see Robinson play more aggressively. "That's something that's a work in progress. "It's just all part of it. We've got to continue to try to ... recog- nize what we're doing and (see) how we can get Glenn more involved." But the game's biggest dispar- ity came on the free throw line, where Indiana displayed an impressive propensity to get to the charity stripe. The Wolverines attempted just seven free throws, while the Hoosiers shot 22-of-25 from the line. After trailing by as many as 15 points, Michigan (7-2 Big Ten, 20-2 overall) showed the first-half resilience it lacked in Columbus ina loss to Ohio State in January. The Wolverines shot just 2-of-11 from 3-point range in the first half, while the Hoo- siers shot 50 percent from deep. Burke and Zeller pulled their weight early and often, with Burke scoring a game-leading 14 points in the opening stanza, while Zeller notched 11 points to go along with six boards. Though the Hoosiers owned the first half, Burke stunned the raucous arena by draining a step-back jumper with just four seconds remaining, allowing the Wolverines to go into the locker room trailing just 36-32. After Indiana (8-1, 20-2) led by double-digits for much of the opening 20 minutes, Michi- gan scored 17 of the half's final 25 points, including an 8-0 run, to chip away at Indiana's lead. The Hoosiers were held to just 16 points in the final 15 minutes of the half after coming out fir- ing in the opening five minutes. Indiana scored 20 points in the game's opening five minutes, making its first six shots, includ- ing four threes. "I think we did a good job at responding to their punch, we just didn't get over the hump," Burke said. "That's something that we're continuing to try to make adjustments on and get better at - just coming out and making the first punch." Just minutes into the second half, Michigan tied the game on a 3-pointer from Stauskas, but Indiana followed with an 11-0 run. But just like in the first half, the young Wolverines failed to go away, responding with an. 11-2 run to bring the game back to within two points with 11 minutes remaining. Junior guard Tim Hardaway Jr. chipped in with 18 points and freshman forward Mitch McGary played well, scoring 10 points and pulling down seven rebounds. But the rest of the Wolver- ines' supporting cast - includ- ing redshirt junior forward Jordan, who was limited to just two minutes after spraining his ankle last weekend - failed to produce enough offense to top- ple the Hoosiers on the road. With Kansas also losing Sat- urday, Michigan could still find itself ranked in Monday's top- two spots. Missed the swimming meet? Wont to read about Yurchenkos and the women's gymnastics team? Love men's lax? FIND THIS AND MORE CONTENT ONLINE WWW.THEBLOCKM.COM S U NDAY (F E8. 10) Softball: Michigan vs. Samford 9:00 a.m. (Tampa, Fla.) Women's Basketball: Michigan at Purdue 12:00 p.m.(West Lafayette, Ind.) Men's Tennis: Michigan at Duke12:00 p.m. (Dur- ham, N.C.) Wrestling: Michigan at Michigan State 2:00 p.m. (East Lansing) Womens Swiming: Michigan Open 6:00 p.m. (RoceerRT Mich.) Women's Water Polo: Bracket Play TBA (San Diego, Calif.) Women's Tennis ITA National Team Indoor Championships TBA (Charlottesvlle, Va.) Women's Water Polo: Bracket Play TBA (San Diego) Women's Golf: Lady Puerto Rico Classic TBA (Rio Grande, Puerto Rico) - (*) All home events are eligible to earn points for the Athletic Department's H.A..L program. BIG TEN MEN'S BASKETBALL STANDINGS Big Ten Overall Iodiaoa 8-) 20- 2 Michigan 7-2 20-2 Michigan State 7- 2 18 - 4 Ohio State 7-2 17 - 4 Wisconsin 6-3 15 -7 Minnesota 5-4 17 -5 Purdue 4-5 11 - 11 Northwestern 4-6 13 - 10 I owa 3-h 14 -8 Illinois 2- 7 15 - 8 Nebraska 2-8 11 - 12 Penn State 0-9 8 - 13 the coaches in the lockerj tomorrow, we're going to. through this film. "It doesn't get any easi' can't be patting each othe back (because of) moralv and things like that. We'r disappointed, but we can' on it. We can't let them b twice." You could see how emo involved Burke, Tim Har Jr., and their parents wer' the game - frustration at shots and calls, looking u Indiana started to pull aw good - but after the gam MCGARY From Page 1B deep, and missed them all. The Buckeyes were obviously target- ing the sharpshooter - and it worked.Against Indianaon Satur- day, Jordan Hulls was tasked with defending Stauskas. Though the freshman hit three free throws to tie the game at 40 early in the second half, the Hoosiers' defense contained him until late in the game, when his 10 points didn't matter much. Like Stauskas, Robinson was hounded by the defense most of the night - he was guarded by Victor Oladipo for the majority of the game -and despite playing all 40 minutes, he rarely found the ball or an open look. The forward had four rebounds - just 1.7 below his season average - but his presence on the boards was hardly felt throughout the game. Robinson was also held to just two points, which came in the form of a dunk with 1:09 left to play in the game. By that point, Michigan's fate was all but sealed. "(The Hoosiers), they hugged the rails (Saturday), and kind of made us win the game just from the point guard and the center position," said sophomore guard Trey Burke. "We have to con- tinue to try to get (Stauskas and Robinson) good looks within our offense. Indiana did a good job denying them, and it was tough to get them the ball." But for every missed basket by Stauskas and Robinson on Satur- day, there was a rebound or steal from forward Mitch McGary. With redshirt junior forward Jordan Morgan limited again - he played just two minutes, and redshirt sophomore forward Jon Horford started in his place for the second consecutive game - McGary was again able to step up. The freshman played a season- high 28 minutes and tied a career best with 10 points. McGary's offensive production isn't usually his strong suit, but his scoring and defensive presence were the big- gest aspects of his performance on Saturday. Though Indiana's Cody Zeller was able to put up 19 points, McGary did a good job holding Zeller to tougher shots and was able to be more physical with the Hoosier sophomore. He also got a couple of steals off Zeller, but one area McGary wasn't happy with in his game was Zeller's second- chance points. "I think we did a good job defensively," McGary said. "(Zeller) didn't get too many easy buckets, but offensive rebounding, I made a few mistakes boxing him out while I was trying to help or block a shot, and he got some easy buckets there." McGary also pulled downseven rebounds and was able to keep up with Zeller on the glass, proving that the freshman is continuing to improve his all-around game, much to the pleasure of his coach. "(McGary) certainly did (take another step forward)," Beilein said. "He was making some big inputs in there. He has to continue to learn how to use his body at the right angles to guard in the post, but he has a real good sense for stealing the ball. I just liked the way Mitch was playing in there."