The Michigan Daily - michigandaily.com
Friday, December 2, 2011 - 7
Entering final week, college football experts
say Michigan's BCS bowl chances look good
TIM ROHAN teams in the 10 BCS spots.
Daily Sports Editor "That's a must," Palm said
of how an LSU win would help
With his team sitting at No. 16 Michigan's chances. "And the
in the latest BCS standings with reason is because if Georgia wins
a 10-2 record and several mar- and the voters are stupid and
quee wins over the likes of Notre leave LSU and Alabama No.1 and
Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State, No. 2, then the SEC has three
Michigan coach Brady Hoke teams and there are no open
likes his team's chances of mak- spots for Michigan."
ing a BCS bowl game. Dodd contended that if Geor-
"We've done all that we can gia did win, that wouldn't neces-
do," Hoke said Monday. "Is it sarily mean LSU and Alabama
deserving? Probably. A 10-win would stay atop the standings.
team out of the Big Ten confer- Both would be one-loss teams,
ence, I think that speaks for and neither will have won its
itself." conference.
The BCS bowl committees The pollsters would pun-
hear Michigan loud and clear. ish Alabama, Dodd said, for not
But the Wolverines will need playing this week and for los-
help this weekend if they're to ing to LSU. Still, a Georgia win
jump into the top 14 in the BCS would mean one less team falling
standings to become eligible for past Michigan.
an at-large selection. It helps that No. 13 Michigan
According to two college foot- State and No. 15 Wisconsin meet
ball experts, if Michigan is in the in the Big Ten Championship
top 14, it will play in a BCS game, game Saturday - it's likely that
likely the Sugar Bowl in New Michigan would jump whoever
Orleans, La. or the Fiesta Bowl in loses. But speculation has grown
Glendale, Ariz. that a Spartan loss wouldn't
"If they're eligible, yes. I don't necessarily drop them past the
think there's any question," said Wolverines in the polls because
Dennis Dodd, a college football Michigan State beat Michigan
columnist for CBSSports.com. on Oct. 15. Dodd and Palm don't
"A 10-2 Michigan team? Yes. consider that an issue.
Coming off a win over Ohio "It's what the voters have
State? Absolutely." always done - when you lose,
"Yep, I think so," said Jerry you drop," Palm said. "They
Palm, a BCS expert who runs don't care about head-to-head
the website CollegeBCS.com and and stuff like that. They probably
contributes to CBSSports.com. don't even remember Michigan
"(But) they need a little help, State beat Michigan. They don't
some attrition in front of them." care about stuff like that. If you
Luckily for Michigan, the lose, you drop."
three teams immediately in front Added Dodd: "In my experi-
of them in the BCS standings ence, that third loss (for Michi-
play this weekend, and two of gan State) is huge. It will be
them play each other. valued by the (BCS) computers
Palm and Dodd agreed that more than anybody else."
one game was most crucial in Dodd described the "perfect
determining the Wolverines' example" to illustrate how Mich-
fate: the SEC championship igan would jump the loser of the
between No. 1 LSU and No. 14 Big Ten title game. In 2007, on
Georgia. the last week of the season, then-
If LSU wins, which is expect- No. 4 Missouri beat then-No.
ed, Georgia would drop down 2 Kansas. The next week, Mis-
in the polls, opening a spot for souri was blown out in the Big
Michigan to jump up. But if the 12 championship game by Okla-
Bulldogs pull off the upset, the homa. Playing in the title game
SEC could potentially have three gave the Tigers an extra loss
MARISsA MCCLAIN/Daily
Michigan coach Brady Hoke and the Wolverines may be goingto the program's first BCS bowl game since the 2006 season.
and cost them a seat in the BCS.
Kansas went to the Orange Bowl,
Missouri to the Cotton Bowl.
Just like that season, Michigan
could be rewarded for being idle
while Michigan State and Wis-
consin beat each other up.
For Michigan to really be com-
fortable with a spot in the top-14,
it would prefer No. 10 Oklaho-
ma to lose to No. 3 Oklahoma
State - the winner of that game
would get the Big 12's automatic
spot. And a No. 5 Virginia Tech
win over No. 20 Clemson would
prevent Clemson from jumping
Michigan in the polls - some-
thing Palm and Dodd said was
a possibility. No. 17 Baylor could
also gain momentum with a win
over No. 22 Texas.
But with three losses already,
Dodd didn't think Baylor would
gain enough momentum to top-
ple Michigan.
Both experts said the broad
BCS picture is shaping up nicely
for Michigan. The SEC is expect-
ed to have two teams - whether
it's LSU, Alabama or Georgia.
The Pac-12 is expected to have
two teams - its conference
champion (likely No. 9 Oregon)
and No. 4 Stanford, which would
be guaranteed an at-large spot if
it the idle Cardinal finished No. 3
or No. 4 in the standings.
Then the ACC, Big 12 and Big
East are all expected to have no
more than one team in the BCS
Standings - even if the fifth-
ranked Hokies or third-ranked
Cowboys lose and compete for
the last at-large spot.
Why? Michigan's brand is that
much bigger.
"Oh my gosh, yes," Palm said
of picking Michigan ahead of
other potential at-large teams
like Virginia Tech, Oklahoma
State and No. 11 Kansas State.
"There are three teams with
better brand power than Michi-
gan. There are three. And Kan-
sas State? Not a chance. It's Ohio
State, Notre Dame and maybe
Penn State. That's pretty much
it. Michigan is in a class by itself,
with very few peers."
Once the Wolverines are in
the top-14, their destination
will most likely be the Sugar
Bowl, if LSU and Alabama have
a rematch in the National Cham-
pionship game. If that were the
case, the Sugar Bowl would have
first pick of the at-large teams
having lost its SEC team to the
championship game (assuming
Georgia loses to LSU and doesn't
punch its own ticket to the Sugar
Bowl).
The pool of four at-large bids
would then include No. 6 Hous-
ton (who guarantees a BCS spot
with a win Saturday), Stanford
(who is likely to be guaranteed a
spot), and the Big East champion,
who is also guaranteed a spot.
Then one spot would be left for
Michigan, and the Wolverines
would likely be the first at-large
selected, Dodd and Palm agreed,
even over a top-five Stanford
team.
"They would pick Michigan,"
Dodd said. "(The Sugar Bowl is)
going to lose their anchor team
(to the National Championship).
You can't rely on Stanford at all.
They would almost certainly be
there."
Added Palm: "Look, it's not
just their brand. (Michigan's)
going to bring hundreds of thou-
sands of fans. I mean, Stanford's
going to bring hundreds of fans."
On the off chance Georgia
wins and LSU and Alabama don't
have a rematch, Michigan could
find itself in the Fiesta Bowl, who
would then have the top choice
of the at-large teams because the
Sugar Bowl wouldn't lose its SEC
team. Before Michigan can be
picked, most importantly, it has
to find a way into the top 14.
"I guessthe best scenario is for
LSU to win, and then the Big Ten
title game takes care of itself,"
Dodd said. "Then, I think they're
in. I think everyone kind of pre-
dicts they'll be in after that.
"At the end of the day, Michi-
gan being back at this level
for the first time in years will
carry the day. Their brand will
carry the day. Overall, I think it
looks really good for them, just
because two of the three above
them are goingto lose."
Simply put, Michigan fans,
root for LSU to beat Georgia and
hope Michigan hops whoever
loses the Big Ten Championship
game.
Michigan hasn't made it to
a BCS bowl game since former
Michigan coach Lloyd Carr led
his team to the Rose Bowl on
January 1, 2007.
Hoke will find out if he
brought the Wolverines back
Sunday at 8:15 p.m. when ESPN
reveals the final BCS standings
and announces who's playing
where.
Palm put Michigan's chances
of playing in a BCS game at "75
or 80 (percent)."
"They need things to go their
way, of course, but I like the
chances of things going their
way," he said.
"I think it would be 80 per-
cent," added Dodd. "I'm doing
my-bowl picks at the end of my
column on Friday, and I'm not
even thinking about it. I'm just
putting (Michigan) in."
STAFF PICKS
The Daily football writers do their best
to predict, against the spread, what
happens in the 2011 football season.
Michael Stephen J.
Florek Nesbitt
7"
No.LSU-10) vs.No. 12 Georgia
No.3OklahomaState(-3)vsNo.13Oklahoma
No. 5 Virginia Tech (-4.5) vs No. 21 Clemson
No. 7 Houston (-17) vs No. 24 Southern Miss
No.8Oregon (-30.5) vs UCLA
No.11MichigaStatevs.No.t15Wiscontin(-7.5)
Not. 16 ansas State-2) vs Iowa State
Not18TCU(-40.5)vsUNLVn
No .19Baylotr(-2.5)vsTeas
No. 22 West Virginia (-1) at South Florida
Last Week
Overall
LsianaState
Oklahoma
Virginia Tech
Houston
Oregon
Wisconsin
Kansas State
vNLn
Baylor
West Virginia
10-8
165-124-4
Louisiana State
Oklahoma State
Virginia Tech
Houston
UCLA
Wiscon sin
Kansas State
Baylor
West Virginia
13-S
165-124-4
Kevin
Raftery
ouisiana State
Oklahoma State
VirginiaTech
Southern Miss
Oregon
Michigan Slate
Kansas State
South Florida
8-10
159-130-4
Ukanoma State
Virginia Tech
Hioston
Oregon
Wisconsin
Kantas State
UsN
B aylor
West Virginia
11-7
170-119-4
Umianoma
VirginiaTech
Houston
Oregon
Wisconsin
Kansas State
van
Baylor
West Virginia
12-6
23-18
Icers combat losing culture, look to end skid in Alaska
ZACH HELFAND again this weekend, you'd have to
* Daily Sports Editor look all the way back to the late
1980s to find a longer skid.
Shawn Hunwick hears it at the Michigan, a program that has
rink. He hears it at home. known only victory for most of its
His friends existence, has hosted an uninvit-
and people on ed guest at Yost Ice Arena the past
the street ask Michigan few weeks: the culture of losing.
him, "What the aAa That culture has crept into the
hell is going details, players said, especially
on?" Matchup: defensively. It's in the mental
The winless Michigan 7-7- mistakes and turnovers that cost
streak looms 2; Alaska 3-7-2 games - like when junior forward
over the fifth- When: Friday A.J. Treais failed to lift the stick
year senior 11:05 P.M. of his man in the crease against
goalie and the Where: Carl- Union last weekend.
rest of the No. son Center, It's in the hustle and precision
19 Michigan Fairbanks necessary to win. Sophomore
hockey team Alaska defenseman Mac Bennett said
wherever they Liveblog: that the team has been too reck-
go. Michigandaily. less on defense. The defensemen
"I don't know com/sports charge 50-50 loose pucks without
if I've ever had a a forward back to help on the
stretch like this zone. When the defenders provide
in my career - college, juniors, on-puck help, the forwards fail to
growing up," Hunwick said. "You mark the open opponents.
lose six games in a row, no one's "You gotta pay more attention
happy." to detail," Bennett said. "That
The Wolverines (3-5-2 CCHA, may be an area where we're lack-
7-7-2 overall) traveled to Fair- ing. It's a little bit of hustle, it's a
banks, Alaska on Wednesday with little bit of thinking, and when
their longest winless stieak in you give two-on-ones to the other
over a decade. If they were swept team, more times than not they're
Schembechler's "Sudden Change"
drills. Schembechler would
mentally prepare his teams for
an abrupt swing in the game and
coach them to regain the momen-
tum. Schembechler, in the book
he co-authored with John Bacon
"Bo's Lasting Lessons," explained
that he would challenge his
teams, "Do you collapse like most
teams do? Or do you rise to the
occasion and turn the tide."
Berenson asked the same of his
squad. ~
"We're trying to overcome
your reaction to a goal against or
something bad," Berenson said.
"Everything that can go wrong
has gone wrong."
Yet the trip to Alaska provides
a chance to wipe the slate clean.
As Hunwick explained, nobody
walking down the street in Fair-
banks will ask him what's wrong.
For the first time during the win-
less streak, the team has a chance
to get away.
Berenson will take the team
curling and on an expedition to
see the Alaska Pipeline, as he
does every year. Other than that,
there's not much to do in Alaska
other than think about hockey.
"I think it'll be good forus to be
on the road," Bennett said. "Go off
pretty much into the wilderness
and find ourselves."
The Wolverines have per-
formed well historically against
the Nanooks, posting a 41-9-1
record in the all-time series.
And the battered defense gets
to face an Alaska-Fairbanks team
(3-7-2, 6-8-2) that ranks second-
to-last in the CCHA in scoring
offense and that has been less
than effective on the power play.
Berenson suspects that Michi-
gan is better than it has shown.
"We're not far off the mark,"
Berenson said "We're not a hope-
less team. I know we're pretty
thin in some ways, but I think
we've got players that will play
better."
Friday's game takes on added
importance, both in terms of
gaining ground in the conference
standings and in terms of psyche.
"I would be disappointed if
we didn't come back with six
points," said senior forward David
Wohlberg. "That's what we need
to get ontrack. I don't like get-
ting swept, I don't like splitting
series."
ADAM SCHNITZER/Daoily
Fifth-year senior goaltender Shawn Hunwick says he has never experienced
anything like Michigan's current skid.
going to put it in the back of your
net."
The culture has invaded the
psyche of the team. Junior for-
ward Chris Brown spoke of a
snowball effect after Sunday's
loss to Union. One mistake led
to another, which led to several
more.
"If you look at the games, lately
it's been like one thing happens
and it's going downhill," Hunwick
said.
After what Michigan coach
Red Berenson and several play-
ers called one of the best eight
minutes of hockey the team has
played all year, the Wolverines
crumbled after surrendering an
easy goal to Union.
Berenson referenced former
Michigan football coach Bo