The Michigan Daily - michigandaily.com Friday, December 2, 2011 - 7 Entering final week, college football experts say Michigan's BCS bowl chances look good TIM ROHAN teams in the 10 BCS spots. Daily Sports Editor "That's a must," Palm said of how an LSU win would help With his team sitting at No. 16 Michigan's chances. "And the in the latest BCS standings with reason is because if Georgia wins a 10-2 record and several mar- and the voters are stupid and quee wins over the likes of Notre leave LSU and Alabama No.1 and Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State, No. 2, then the SEC has three Michigan coach Brady Hoke teams and there are no open likes his team's chances of mak- spots for Michigan." ing a BCS bowl game. Dodd contended that if Geor- "We've done all that we can gia did win, that wouldn't neces- do," Hoke said Monday. "Is it sarily mean LSU and Alabama deserving? Probably. A 10-win would stay atop the standings. team out of the Big Ten confer- Both would be one-loss teams, ence, I think that speaks for and neither will have won its itself." conference. The BCS bowl committees The pollsters would pun- hear Michigan loud and clear. ish Alabama, Dodd said, for not But the Wolverines will need playing this week and for los- help this weekend if they're to ing to LSU. Still, a Georgia win jump into the top 14 in the BCS would mean one less team falling standings to become eligible for past Michigan. an at-large selection. It helps that No. 13 Michigan According to two college foot- State and No. 15 Wisconsin meet ball experts, if Michigan is in the in the Big Ten Championship top 14, it will play in a BCS game, game Saturday - it's likely that likely the Sugar Bowl in New Michigan would jump whoever Orleans, La. or the Fiesta Bowl in loses. But speculation has grown Glendale, Ariz. that a Spartan loss wouldn't "If they're eligible, yes. I don't necessarily drop them past the think there's any question," said Wolverines in the polls because Dennis Dodd, a college football Michigan State beat Michigan columnist for CBSSports.com. on Oct. 15. Dodd and Palm don't "A 10-2 Michigan team? Yes. consider that an issue. Coming off a win over Ohio "It's what the voters have State? Absolutely." always done - when you lose, "Yep, I think so," said Jerry you drop," Palm said. "They Palm, a BCS expert who runs don't care about head-to-head the website CollegeBCS.com and and stuff like that. They probably contributes to CBSSports.com. don't even remember Michigan "(But) they need a little help, State beat Michigan. They don't some attrition in front of them." care about stuff like that. If you Luckily for Michigan, the lose, you drop." three teams immediately in front Added Dodd: "In my experi- of them in the BCS standings ence, that third loss (for Michi- play this weekend, and two of gan State) is huge. It will be them play each other. valued by the (BCS) computers Palm and Dodd agreed that more than anybody else." one game was most crucial in Dodd described the "perfect determining the Wolverines' example" to illustrate how Mich- fate: the SEC championship igan would jump the loser of the between No. 1 LSU and No. 14 Big Ten title game. In 2007, on Georgia. the last week of the season, then- If LSU wins, which is expect- No. 4 Missouri beat then-No. ed, Georgia would drop down 2 Kansas. The next week, Mis- in the polls, opening a spot for souri was blown out in the Big Michigan to jump up. But if the 12 championship game by Okla- Bulldogs pull off the upset, the homa. Playing in the title game SEC could potentially have three gave the Tigers an extra loss MARISsA MCCLAIN/Daily Michigan coach Brady Hoke and the Wolverines may be goingto the program's first BCS bowl game since the 2006 season. and cost them a seat in the BCS. Kansas went to the Orange Bowl, Missouri to the Cotton Bowl. Just like that season, Michigan could be rewarded for being idle while Michigan State and Wis- consin beat each other up. For Michigan to really be com- fortable with a spot in the top-14, it would prefer No. 10 Oklaho- ma to lose to No. 3 Oklahoma State - the winner of that game would get the Big 12's automatic spot. And a No. 5 Virginia Tech win over No. 20 Clemson would prevent Clemson from jumping Michigan in the polls - some- thing Palm and Dodd said was a possibility. No. 17 Baylor could also gain momentum with a win over No. 22 Texas. But with three losses already, Dodd didn't think Baylor would gain enough momentum to top- ple Michigan. Both experts said the broad BCS picture is shaping up nicely for Michigan. The SEC is expect- ed to have two teams - whether it's LSU, Alabama or Georgia. The Pac-12 is expected to have two teams - its conference champion (likely No. 9 Oregon) and No. 4 Stanford, which would be guaranteed an at-large spot if it the idle Cardinal finished No. 3 or No. 4 in the standings. Then the ACC, Big 12 and Big East are all expected to have no more than one team in the BCS Standings - even if the fifth- ranked Hokies or third-ranked Cowboys lose and compete for the last at-large spot. Why? Michigan's brand is that much bigger. "Oh my gosh, yes," Palm said of picking Michigan ahead of other potential at-large teams like Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State and No. 11 Kansas State. "There are three teams with better brand power than Michi- gan. There are three. And Kan- sas State? Not a chance. It's Ohio State, Notre Dame and maybe Penn State. That's pretty much it. Michigan is in a class by itself, with very few peers." Once the Wolverines are in the top-14, their destination will most likely be the Sugar Bowl, if LSU and Alabama have a rematch in the National Cham- pionship game. If that were the case, the Sugar Bowl would have first pick of the at-large teams having lost its SEC team to the championship game (assuming Georgia loses to LSU and doesn't punch its own ticket to the Sugar Bowl). The pool of four at-large bids would then include No. 6 Hous- ton (who guarantees a BCS spot with a win Saturday), Stanford (who is likely to be guaranteed a spot), and the Big East champion, who is also guaranteed a spot. Then one spot would be left for Michigan, and the Wolverines would likely be the first at-large selected, Dodd and Palm agreed, even over a top-five Stanford team. "They would pick Michigan," Dodd said. "(The Sugar Bowl is) going to lose their anchor team (to the National Championship). You can't rely on Stanford at all. They would almost certainly be there." Added Palm: "Look, it's not just their brand. (Michigan's) going to bring hundreds of thou- sands of fans. I mean, Stanford's going to bring hundreds of fans." On the off chance Georgia wins and LSU and Alabama don't have a rematch, Michigan could find itself in the Fiesta Bowl, who would then have the top choice of the at-large teams because the Sugar Bowl wouldn't lose its SEC team. Before Michigan can be picked, most importantly, it has to find a way into the top 14. "I guessthe best scenario is for LSU to win, and then the Big Ten title game takes care of itself," Dodd said. "Then, I think they're in. I think everyone kind of pre- dicts they'll be in after that. "At the end of the day, Michi- gan being back at this level for the first time in years will carry the day. Their brand will carry the day. Overall, I think it looks really good for them, just because two of the three above them are goingto lose." Simply put, Michigan fans, root for LSU to beat Georgia and hope Michigan hops whoever loses the Big Ten Championship game. Michigan hasn't made it to a BCS bowl game since former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr led his team to the Rose Bowl on January 1, 2007. Hoke will find out if he brought the Wolverines back Sunday at 8:15 p.m. when ESPN reveals the final BCS standings and announces who's playing where. Palm put Michigan's chances of playing in a BCS game at "75 or 80 (percent)." "They need things to go their way, of course, but I like the chances of things going their way," he said. "I think it would be 80 per- cent," added Dodd. "I'm doing my-bowl picks at the end of my column on Friday, and I'm not even thinking about it. I'm just putting (Michigan) in." STAFF PICKS The Daily football writers do their best to predict, against the spread, what happens in the 2011 football season. Michael Stephen J. Florek Nesbitt 7" No.LSU-10) vs.No. 12 Georgia No.3OklahomaState(-3)vsNo.13Oklahoma No. 5 Virginia Tech (-4.5) vs No. 21 Clemson No. 7 Houston (-17) vs No. 24 Southern Miss No.8Oregon (-30.5) vs UCLA No.11MichigaStatevs.No.t15Wiscontin(-7.5) Not. 16 ansas State-2) vs Iowa State Not18TCU(-40.5)vsUNLVn No .19Baylotr(-2.5)vsTeas No. 22 West Virginia (-1) at South Florida Last Week Overall LsianaState Oklahoma Virginia Tech Houston Oregon Wisconsin Kansas State vNLn Baylor West Virginia 10-8 165-124-4 Louisiana State Oklahoma State Virginia Tech Houston UCLA Wiscon sin Kansas State Baylor West Virginia 13-S 165-124-4 Kevin Raftery ouisiana State Oklahoma State VirginiaTech Southern Miss Oregon Michigan Slate Kansas State South Florida 8-10 159-130-4 Ukanoma State Virginia Tech Hioston Oregon Wisconsin Kantas State UsN B aylor West Virginia 11-7 170-119-4 Umianoma VirginiaTech Houston Oregon Wisconsin Kansas State van Baylor West Virginia 12-6 23-18 Icers combat losing culture, look to end skid in Alaska ZACH HELFAND again this weekend, you'd have to * Daily Sports Editor look all the way back to the late 1980s to find a longer skid. Shawn Hunwick hears it at the Michigan, a program that has rink. He hears it at home. known only victory for most of its His friends existence, has hosted an uninvit- and people on ed guest at Yost Ice Arena the past the street ask Michigan few weeks: the culture of losing. him, "What the aAa That culture has crept into the hell is going details, players said, especially on?" Matchup: defensively. It's in the mental The winless Michigan 7-7- mistakes and turnovers that cost streak looms 2; Alaska 3-7-2 games - like when junior forward over the fifth- When: Friday A.J. Treais failed to lift the stick year senior 11:05 P.M. of his man in the crease against goalie and the Where: Carl- Union last weekend. rest of the No. son Center, It's in the hustle and precision 19 Michigan Fairbanks necessary to win. Sophomore hockey team Alaska defenseman Mac Bennett said wherever they Liveblog: that the team has been too reck- go. Michigandaily. less on defense. The defensemen "I don't know com/sports charge 50-50 loose pucks without if I've ever had a a forward back to help on the stretch like this zone. When the defenders provide in my career - college, juniors, on-puck help, the forwards fail to growing up," Hunwick said. "You mark the open opponents. lose six games in a row, no one's "You gotta pay more attention happy." to detail," Bennett said. "That The Wolverines (3-5-2 CCHA, may be an area where we're lack- 7-7-2 overall) traveled to Fair- ing. It's a little bit of hustle, it's a banks, Alaska on Wednesday with little bit of thinking, and when their longest winless stieak in you give two-on-ones to the other over a decade. If they were swept team, more times than not they're Schembechler's "Sudden Change" drills. Schembechler would mentally prepare his teams for an abrupt swing in the game and coach them to regain the momen- tum. Schembechler, in the book he co-authored with John Bacon "Bo's Lasting Lessons," explained that he would challenge his teams, "Do you collapse like most teams do? Or do you rise to the occasion and turn the tide." Berenson asked the same of his squad. ~ "We're trying to overcome your reaction to a goal against or something bad," Berenson said. "Everything that can go wrong has gone wrong." Yet the trip to Alaska provides a chance to wipe the slate clean. As Hunwick explained, nobody walking down the street in Fair- banks will ask him what's wrong. For the first time during the win- less streak, the team has a chance to get away. Berenson will take the team curling and on an expedition to see the Alaska Pipeline, as he does every year. Other than that, there's not much to do in Alaska other than think about hockey. "I think it'll be good forus to be on the road," Bennett said. "Go off pretty much into the wilderness and find ourselves." The Wolverines have per- formed well historically against the Nanooks, posting a 41-9-1 record in the all-time series. And the battered defense gets to face an Alaska-Fairbanks team (3-7-2, 6-8-2) that ranks second- to-last in the CCHA in scoring offense and that has been less than effective on the power play. Berenson suspects that Michi- gan is better than it has shown. "We're not far off the mark," Berenson said "We're not a hope- less team. I know we're pretty thin in some ways, but I think we've got players that will play better." Friday's game takes on added importance, both in terms of gaining ground in the conference standings and in terms of psyche. "I would be disappointed if we didn't come back with six points," said senior forward David Wohlberg. "That's what we need to get ontrack. I don't like get- ting swept, I don't like splitting series." ADAM SCHNITZER/Daoily Fifth-year senior goaltender Shawn Hunwick says he has never experienced anything like Michigan's current skid. going to put it in the back of your net." The culture has invaded the psyche of the team. Junior for- ward Chris Brown spoke of a snowball effect after Sunday's loss to Union. One mistake led to another, which led to several more. "If you look at the games, lately it's been like one thing happens and it's going downhill," Hunwick said. After what Michigan coach Red Berenson and several play- ers called one of the best eight minutes of hockey the team has played all year, the Wolverines crumbled after surrendering an easy goal to Union. Berenson referenced former Michigan football coach Bo