14 - The Michigan Daily - Friday, March 15, 1996
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Just four years ago..
* in the 1992 Michigan primaries,
Democratic contender Jerry Brown
brought his liberal stance to Michigan
and beat Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton in
several counties, including his largest
win, in Washtenaw County by almost
2,000 votes. Brown finished second
overall, with Sen. Paul Tsongas, who
had dropped out of the race, in third.
t Also in Washtenaw County, Pat
Buchanan took more than one third of
the votes in a race against President
Bush, and came in second in the
state with more than 150,000 votes.
Michigan a.
swing state
With 229 delegates up for grabs in
the four Midwestern state primaries
Tuesday, analysts say the approach-
ing showdown could put Sen. Bob
Dole's nomination bid over the top,
closing the competitive leg of the
nomination race.
The quickened pace of this year's
primaries has decreased Michigan's
strategic importance in this presi-
dential primary, but historically the
state has been a considered an im-
portant swing vote for the general
election.
Mark Fletcher, state chair for the
College Republicans, said
Michigan's voting is not predictable,
as Republican George Bush took the
state in the 1988 campaign, but
Democrat Bill Clinton won in 1992.
"Sen. Dole has said he could lose
the nomination if he doesn't win
Michigan," Fletcher, an LSA senior,
said.
Steve Gools, communications di-
rector for the state Democratic Party,
said that with two-thirds of the del-
egates selected before the Tuesday
primary, Michigan will be less impor-
tant in this campaign.
However, Gools said, in the gen-
eral election, "Michigan is going to
be a battleground state."
The 1992 presidential primaries
showed the demographic differences
between voters within the state. Both
Clinton and Bush, the eventual pary
nominees, won their respective pri-
maries in the state. Within each party,
however, the county winners varied
widely.
While Clinton received an over-
whelming 123,350 out of 201,738
votes in Detroit's Wayne County, his
reception in suburban Washtenawwas
not as warm. Compared to former
CaliformiaGov. Jerry Brown's 10,502
votes, Clinton garnered only 30 per-
cent of the county, or 8,872 votes. At
the time of the '92 primary, several of
Clinton's adversaries had withdrawn
from the race, but still received a
sizable number of votes.
With only three nominees on the
state ballot, the Republican candi-
dates had less division. Against an
incumbent president, Buchanan re-
ceived 25 percent of the state Repub-
lican votes. Bush had 67 percent of
the total state
vote, and was re-
ceived even bet-J1
ter in Washtenaw
County, earning
69 percent of that
vote.
Assistant po-
litical science
Prof. Ken
Kollman said the r : ,u
distribution of.
votes in Michigan
has traditionally
been indicative of
the entire nation
The state,
Kollman said, is
"fairly represen
tative, with one or
more large cities,
and rural and mi-
nority voters."
Some pundits Campaign button
have speculated candidates antici
that Gov. John Engler's views on na-
tional issues could influence voters.-
Engler spokesperson John Truscott
said the governor could have an im-
pact. Yesterday, the governorofficially
endorsed Dole.
"Republican voters have a lot of
faith in what he's going to do,"
Truscott said. "When he says elect a
Republican president that idea will
resonate."
Bill Ballenger, publisher of the
- ;icr ha edinu rn iAjm NdMi;hi-
Dole poised for GOP nod as primary nears
By Stephanie Jo Klein
Daily Staff Reporter
As some Republican presidential can-
didates watch their delegate counts
grow, others are following the steady
stream of candidates who are dropping
out of the race.
In the few weeks since the start of the
primaries, more than five contenders
have ended their campaigns, including
former Tennessee Gov. Lamar
Alexander, Texas Sen. Phil Gramm and
Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar. Just yes-
terday, publisher Steve Forbes bowed
out of the race after dissappointing re-
sults.
Although some candidates couldn't
find success at the polls, the ones who
remain say they will take the country by
an electoral storm.
Kansas Sen. Bob Dole is the clear
leader of the pack, with 742 delegates
amassed toward the GOP nomination.
At the time he left the race, Forbes was
a distant second, with 76 delegates under
his belt. Close at Forbes' heels is conser-
vative commentator Pat Buchanan, with
71 delegates. Despite having received
only four delegates in the primaries,
former Assistant Secretary of State Alan
Keyes also remains in the race.
With Dole only 254 delegates away
from securing the nomination, some
have said the remainder of the prima-
ries may be a mere formality.
"At this point, he really looks like
he's got the nomination wrapped up,"
said University political science Prof.
John Kingdon. "Michigan is just the
icing on the cake."
Dole's deputy press secretary Chris-
tina Martin said the front-runner's cam-
paign is equally confident.
"We expect the Midwest to be the
crown jewel in that effort to secure a
majority of the delegates," she said.
Kingdon said that with the added
"bounce" from his "Super Tuesday"
victories, Dole should easily continue
to win. "I don't know why it wouldn't
happen in Michigan, too."
Prior to Forbes' withdrawal from the
race, his campaign press secretary
Gretchen Morgenson disputed claims
of Dole's assured victory. The cam-
paign office, she said, is "in very vocal
disagreement that Sen. Dole has the
nomination locked up."
With the winner-take-all California
primary and its 165 delegates looming
two weeks away, Morgenson said the
race "is by no means over."
"He believes that his message of less
government and more freedom is ex-
actly what Michigan voters want,"
Morgenson said. "Sen. Dole has no
message. "
Dole's campaign staff said that the
senator does indeed have a message.
Martin said nay-sayers who discredit
Dole's vision should take a hard look at
themselves.
"They need to question what is their
idea of vision - and if it is a man who
gets things done and makes a better
America, then he shares their vision,"
she asserted.
When asked which issues would be
of the greatest importance to Dole's
campaign, Martin said Dole has con-
tinually followed the party platform,
stressing the need for a balanced bud-
get, as well as tax and welfare reform.
"I think the goal of most Republicans
is to see Bill Clinton out of the White
House," she said.
Buchanan has been adamant that he
will not leave the race due to Dole's
success.
In an interview yesterday with The
Michigan Daily, Buchanan said that
despite his lack of delegate support, he
is pleased to see his message reaching
the public.
"I think Sen. Dole is winning the
battle for president and I think we're
winning the battle for the future,"
Buchanan said.
"We're going to campaign all the
way to the convention," he continued
emphatically."We're not dropping out.
We're not endorsing anyone, other than
myself."
Once Dole's bitter rival, Forbes has
now swung his support to the Dole
camp.
Forbes' platform of supporting of a
national flat-tax met much criticism.
Bill Ballenger, publisher of the Lan-
sing-based journal Inside Michigan
Politics, said Forbes hurt the prospect
that the flat-tax, which was already in
discussion in Republican circles, would
be taken seriously.
"He's the wrong messenger," said
Ballenger, a former state legislator. "A
millionaire could save money (with the
flat-tax). He used the issue, together
with the millions of dollars he's spent
on advertising, to get a quick jump in
the polls."
It has been estimated that Forbes
spent close to $30 million on his short-
lived campaign.
John Truscott, spokesperson for Gov.
John Engler, said candidates in every
election talk about nearly identical is-
sues, but the ways of delivering the
message differ.
Truscott said the economy and jobs,
taxes, education and crime will always
be election talking points.
University political science Prof.
emeritus Samuel Eldersveld said Re-
GOP front-runner Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.) greets supporters at a campaign stop in Auburn Hills yesterday.
Thr- ~ - ~
I Forbes: 76*
Buchanan: 71
.Dropped out of race yesterday
Total Delegates Needed For Nomination: 996
JOSH WHITE/Daily
publican Party unity is slipping - a.
problem that must soon be addressed.
"Whether they can heal the wounds
in the party in the coming months is a
big task for Dole," Eldersveld said.
"(Dole) has to bring the party back
together."
Despite his mass appeal to the reli-
gious Christian right, Karen Valvo, co-
chair of Washtenaw County's Republ i-
can Party, said Buchanan is not as pious
as some might believe.
Buchanan's candidacy, she said, is
particularly un-Christian, particularly
his "exclusionary and inflammatory
language."
Democrats say they sense a deepen-
ing split in the Republican party.
State Rep. Liz Brater (D-Ann Arbor)
said she feels Buchanan's message and
his place on the ballot is very divisive.
"A vote for Buchanan is a vote for the
extremist vocabulary (he) has used,"
she said. "His objective is to look for
scapegoats."
Buchanan laughed off mention ofh is
extremism. "They started making these
statements only when I started win-
ning," he said. "I think an extremist is
someone who just beat Bob Dole in the
New Hampshire primary."
University communication studies
and political science Prof. Michael
Traugott said Buchanan's views still
have a great deal ofclout on the election
trail.
"Pat Buchanan put George Bush in z'
major hole when he spoke at the (1992
Republican national) convention,"
Traugott said. "If given another venue,
it could hurt Dole a great deal."
Smoothing relations with the
Buchanan camp, choosing a middle-of-
the-road candidate for vice president,
and winning over the religious right,
Eldersveld said, are key elements he
feels are necessary to repair the party.
Valvo said she was actually encour-
aged by the largesse of the Republican
debate.
"I think it's a healthy airing of diffeS
ences of opinion," she said. "It gives
people an opportunity to think about
what they really believe in and what
kind of candidate and ... platform they
really want to stand behind."
Valvo remains optimistic about the
GOP's resilience.
"I really think that by the time the
general elections come around ... the
party will be fine," she said, adding th
she is concerned that the party hav
credible candidate to beat Clinton in
November's general election.
If the party unites behind him, pun-
dits say Dole could be a formidable
adversary to the president in Novem-
ber.
"Dole is a good candidate,"
Eldersveld said. "He's got things against
him, like his age, but he is experienced
and respected."
"Dole represents the Republic
Party view," Eldersveld said. "He'
their man."
Voters to cast their ballots for both parties'nominations
As GOP candidates continue to crank the U'PCONIg
party machine through the presidential pri-
maries, Democrats are also gearing up to
get out the vote for tomorrow's presidential
caucus in Michigan.
Although incumbent President Clinton is1
the only candidate on the ballot in Michi- V
gan, the caucus is nevertheless required to Voters m
validate his nomination. GOP cand
"We continue to take Michigan and the open prim
Midwest very seriously," said Ann Lewis, See Tues,
the Clinton/Gore deputy campaign man- -mes an
ager. "We're running a campaign based on W H
the policies, the vision and the achieve-:.
ments that he's accomplished."j
Lewis said Clinton's campaign will fo-
cus on economic expansion, tax relief for ward
working families, and keeping the doors to
higher education open for all students.
Susan Greenberg, a vice chair of the Ann Wr
Arbor Democratic Party, said other "clas-
sic" candidates, such as perennial candi- Ward 2F
date Lyndon Larouche, are on the caucus
ballots in other states but not Michigan.
Greenbergalsosaidwrite-in candidateshave Ward 3C
historically included anyone from long-C
standing political activist Jesse Jackson to
Disney's Mickey Mouse.
Democrats and Republicans alike can vote Ward 4C
in both polls, due to Michigan election
requirements for open primaries, in which
voters are not required to declare their party For caucus i
...h4 - - nrror- - --at
fCaucus and Primtary
The Michigan 1996
Democratic Presidential
Caucus is tomorrow,
from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. at
the locations below.
ay cast ballots for
idates in an
ary Tuesday. r
day's Daily for
(locations.
E R E T O
Location
* The map below shows Ann Arbor City
ward boundaries. A voter identification
card will list in which ward to vote.
f President Clinton will be the only
presidential candidate listed on
tomorrow's caucus ballot.
North Campus is
also in the 1st Waj
Kingsley
1 .4
Ward :.
Ca
________ C I-
Huron
North Uniest
ahion
jWard 2
Gedesg~
JONATHAN LURIE/Daily
is litter Michigan as
pate the primary.
S
both polls could skew results.
"This year the Republicans are going to-.
get it," Greenberg said, "because Dem
crats, in theory, could go into the pollixY
place and vote for Republicans because
nobody knows that they're Democrats as
they walk in."
State Sen. Alma Wheeler Smith (D-
Salem Twp.) said people could vote out
of revenge. "There is some sense that
this is our chance to get even for the
George Wallace primary," she said, re-
ferring to the 1972 election in which
Republican voter crossover skewed the
Democratic primary results to favor t9
segregationalist southerner over moder-
ate George McGovern.
"If people want to play games, for in-
stance, they could go in and vote for Pat
Buchanan," Greenberg said, adding a warn-
ing that no one should "nominate anybody
that they couldn't deal with having be the
elected (official)."
Spoon cautioned that if Democrats vote
in the Republican primary for the cand
date least likely to beat Clinton in t
general election, they would "have to live
with the consequences of the reality if he's
actually nominated and beats Clinton."
Karen Valvo, co-chair of the
Washtenaw County Republican Party,
said she had not heard reports of any
party members intending to vote in the
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Community Center
625 N. Main St.
Huron Towers
2222 Fuller Road
Church of the Good
Shepherd
2145 Independence Blvd.
Church of the Good
Shepherd
2145 Independence Blvd.
nfonnation cagl: (517) 371-5410.
South Unh
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