14 - The Michigan Daily - Friday, March 15, 1996 F Cr g1 tvIlch ia r1 /_ l 1 i. 0* rimar '96 Just four years ago.. * in the 1992 Michigan primaries, Democratic contender Jerry Brown brought his liberal stance to Michigan and beat Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton in several counties, including his largest win, in Washtenaw County by almost 2,000 votes. Brown finished second overall, with Sen. Paul Tsongas, who had dropped out of the race, in third. t Also in Washtenaw County, Pat Buchanan took more than one third of the votes in a race against President Bush, and came in second in the state with more than 150,000 votes. Michigan a. swing state With 229 delegates up for grabs in the four Midwestern state primaries Tuesday, analysts say the approach- ing showdown could put Sen. Bob Dole's nomination bid over the top, closing the competitive leg of the nomination race. The quickened pace of this year's primaries has decreased Michigan's strategic importance in this presi- dential primary, but historically the state has been a considered an im- portant swing vote for the general election. Mark Fletcher, state chair for the College Republicans, said Michigan's voting is not predictable, as Republican George Bush took the state in the 1988 campaign, but Democrat Bill Clinton won in 1992. "Sen. Dole has said he could lose the nomination if he doesn't win Michigan," Fletcher, an LSA senior, said. Steve Gools, communications di- rector for the state Democratic Party, said that with two-thirds of the del- egates selected before the Tuesday primary, Michigan will be less impor- tant in this campaign. However, Gools said, in the gen- eral election, "Michigan is going to be a battleground state." The 1992 presidential primaries showed the demographic differences between voters within the state. Both Clinton and Bush, the eventual pary nominees, won their respective pri- maries in the state. Within each party, however, the county winners varied widely. While Clinton received an over- whelming 123,350 out of 201,738 votes in Detroit's Wayne County, his reception in suburban Washtenawwas not as warm. Compared to former CaliformiaGov. Jerry Brown's 10,502 votes, Clinton garnered only 30 per- cent of the county, or 8,872 votes. At the time of the '92 primary, several of Clinton's adversaries had withdrawn from the race, but still received a sizable number of votes. With only three nominees on the state ballot, the Republican candi- dates had less division. Against an incumbent president, Buchanan re- ceived 25 percent of the state Repub- lican votes. Bush had 67 percent of the total state vote, and was re- ceived even bet-J1 ter in Washtenaw County, earning 69 percent of that vote. Assistant po- litical science Prof. Ken Kollman said the r : ,u distribution of. votes in Michigan has traditionally been indicative of the entire nation The state, Kollman said, is "fairly represen tative, with one or more large cities, and rural and mi- nority voters." Some pundits Campaign button have speculated candidates antici that Gov. John Engler's views on na- tional issues could influence voters.- Engler spokesperson John Truscott said the governor could have an im- pact. Yesterday, the governorofficially endorsed Dole. "Republican voters have a lot of faith in what he's going to do," Truscott said. "When he says elect a Republican president that idea will resonate." Bill Ballenger, publisher of the - ;icr ha edinu rn iAjm NdMi;hi- Dole poised for GOP nod as primary nears By Stephanie Jo Klein Daily Staff Reporter As some Republican presidential can- didates watch their delegate counts grow, others are following the steady stream of candidates who are dropping out of the race. In the few weeks since the start of the primaries, more than five contenders have ended their campaigns, including former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, Texas Sen. Phil Gramm and Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar. Just yes- terday, publisher Steve Forbes bowed out of the race after dissappointing re- sults. Although some candidates couldn't find success at the polls, the ones who remain say they will take the country by an electoral storm. Kansas Sen. Bob Dole is the clear leader of the pack, with 742 delegates amassed toward the GOP nomination. At the time he left the race, Forbes was a distant second, with 76 delegates under his belt. Close at Forbes' heels is conser- vative commentator Pat Buchanan, with 71 delegates. Despite having received only four delegates in the primaries, former Assistant Secretary of State Alan Keyes also remains in the race. With Dole only 254 delegates away from securing the nomination, some have said the remainder of the prima- ries may be a mere formality. "At this point, he really looks like he's got the nomination wrapped up," said University political science Prof. John Kingdon. "Michigan is just the icing on the cake." Dole's deputy press secretary Chris- tina Martin said the front-runner's cam- paign is equally confident. "We expect the Midwest to be the crown jewel in that effort to secure a majority of the delegates," she said. Kingdon said that with the added "bounce" from his "Super Tuesday" victories, Dole should easily continue to win. "I don't know why it wouldn't happen in Michigan, too." Prior to Forbes' withdrawal from the race, his campaign press secretary Gretchen Morgenson disputed claims of Dole's assured victory. The cam- paign office, she said, is "in very vocal disagreement that Sen. Dole has the nomination locked up." With the winner-take-all California primary and its 165 delegates looming two weeks away, Morgenson said the race "is by no means over." "He believes that his message of less government and more freedom is ex- actly what Michigan voters want," Morgenson said. "Sen. Dole has no message. " Dole's campaign staff said that the senator does indeed have a message. Martin said nay-sayers who discredit Dole's vision should take a hard look at themselves. "They need to question what is their idea of vision - and if it is a man who gets things done and makes a better America, then he shares their vision," she asserted. When asked which issues would be of the greatest importance to Dole's campaign, Martin said Dole has con- tinually followed the party platform, stressing the need for a balanced bud- get, as well as tax and welfare reform. "I think the goal of most Republicans is to see Bill Clinton out of the White House," she said. Buchanan has been adamant that he will not leave the race due to Dole's success. In an interview yesterday with The Michigan Daily, Buchanan said that despite his lack of delegate support, he is pleased to see his message reaching the public. "I think Sen. Dole is winning the battle for president and I think we're winning the battle for the future," Buchanan said. "We're going to campaign all the way to the convention," he continued emphatically."We're not dropping out. We're not endorsing anyone, other than myself." Once Dole's bitter rival, Forbes has now swung his support to the Dole camp. Forbes' platform of supporting of a national flat-tax met much criticism. Bill Ballenger, publisher of the Lan- sing-based journal Inside Michigan Politics, said Forbes hurt the prospect that the flat-tax, which was already in discussion in Republican circles, would be taken seriously. "He's the wrong messenger," said Ballenger, a former state legislator. "A millionaire could save money (with the flat-tax). He used the issue, together with the millions of dollars he's spent on advertising, to get a quick jump in the polls." It has been estimated that Forbes spent close to $30 million on his short- lived campaign. John Truscott, spokesperson for Gov. John Engler, said candidates in every election talk about nearly identical is- sues, but the ways of delivering the message differ. Truscott said the economy and jobs, taxes, education and crime will always be election talking points. University political science Prof. emeritus Samuel Eldersveld said Re- GOP front-runner Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.) greets supporters at a campaign stop in Auburn Hills yesterday. Thr- ~ - ~ I Forbes: 76* Buchanan: 71 .Dropped out of race yesterday Total Delegates Needed For Nomination: 996 JOSH WHITE/Daily publican Party unity is slipping - a. problem that must soon be addressed. "Whether they can heal the wounds in the party in the coming months is a big task for Dole," Eldersveld said. "(Dole) has to bring the party back together." Despite his mass appeal to the reli- gious Christian right, Karen Valvo, co- chair of Washtenaw County's Republ i- can Party, said Buchanan is not as pious as some might believe. Buchanan's candidacy, she said, is particularly un-Christian, particularly his "exclusionary and inflammatory language." Democrats say they sense a deepen- ing split in the Republican party. State Rep. Liz Brater (D-Ann Arbor) said she feels Buchanan's message and his place on the ballot is very divisive. "A vote for Buchanan is a vote for the extremist vocabulary (he) has used," she said. "His objective is to look for scapegoats." Buchanan laughed off mention ofh is extremism. "They started making these statements only when I started win- ning," he said. "I think an extremist is someone who just beat Bob Dole in the New Hampshire primary." University communication studies and political science Prof. Michael Traugott said Buchanan's views still have a great deal ofclout on the election trail. "Pat Buchanan put George Bush in z' major hole when he spoke at the (1992 Republican national) convention," Traugott said. "If given another venue, it could hurt Dole a great deal." Smoothing relations with the Buchanan camp, choosing a middle-of- the-road candidate for vice president, and winning over the religious right, Eldersveld said, are key elements he feels are necessary to repair the party. Valvo said she was actually encour- aged by the largesse of the Republican debate. "I think it's a healthy airing of diffeS ences of opinion," she said. "It gives people an opportunity to think about what they really believe in and what kind of candidate and ... platform they really want to stand behind." Valvo remains optimistic about the GOP's resilience. "I really think that by the time the general elections come around ... the party will be fine," she said, adding th she is concerned that the party hav credible candidate to beat Clinton in November's general election. If the party unites behind him, pun- dits say Dole could be a formidable adversary to the president in Novem- ber. "Dole is a good candidate," Eldersveld said. "He's got things against him, like his age, but he is experienced and respected." "Dole represents the Republic Party view," Eldersveld said. "He' their man." Voters to cast their ballots for both parties'nominations As GOP candidates continue to crank the U'PCONIg party machine through the presidential pri- maries, Democrats are also gearing up to get out the vote for tomorrow's presidential caucus in Michigan. Although incumbent President Clinton is1 the only candidate on the ballot in Michi- V gan, the caucus is nevertheless required to Voters m validate his nomination. GOP cand "We continue to take Michigan and the open prim Midwest very seriously," said Ann Lewis, See Tues, the Clinton/Gore deputy campaign man- -mes an ager. "We're running a campaign based on W H the policies, the vision and the achieve-:. ments that he's accomplished."j Lewis said Clinton's campaign will fo- cus on economic expansion, tax relief for ward working families, and keeping the doors to higher education open for all students. Susan Greenberg, a vice chair of the Ann Wr Arbor Democratic Party, said other "clas- sic" candidates, such as perennial candi- Ward 2F date Lyndon Larouche, are on the caucus ballots in other states but not Michigan. Greenbergalsosaidwrite-in candidateshave Ward 3C historically included anyone from long-C standing political activist Jesse Jackson to Disney's Mickey Mouse. Democrats and Republicans alike can vote Ward 4C in both polls, due to Michigan election requirements for open primaries, in which voters are not required to declare their party For caucus i ...h4 - - nrror- - --at fCaucus and Primtary The Michigan 1996 Democratic Presidential Caucus is tomorrow, from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. at the locations below. ay cast ballots for idates in an ary Tuesday. r day's Daily for (locations. E R E T O Location * The map below shows Ann Arbor City ward boundaries. A voter identification card will list in which ward to vote. f President Clinton will be the only presidential candidate listed on tomorrow's caucus ballot. North Campus is also in the 1st Waj Kingsley 1 .4 Ward :. Ca ________ C I- Huron North Uniest ahion jWard 2 Gedesg~ JONATHAN LURIE/Daily is litter Michigan as pate the primary. S both polls could skew results. "This year the Republicans are going to-. get it," Greenberg said, "because Dem crats, in theory, could go into the pollixY place and vote for Republicans because nobody knows that they're Democrats as they walk in." State Sen. Alma Wheeler Smith (D- Salem Twp.) said people could vote out of revenge. "There is some sense that this is our chance to get even for the George Wallace primary," she said, re- ferring to the 1972 election in which Republican voter crossover skewed the Democratic primary results to favor t9 segregationalist southerner over moder- ate George McGovern. "If people want to play games, for in- stance, they could go in and vote for Pat Buchanan," Greenberg said, adding a warn- ing that no one should "nominate anybody that they couldn't deal with having be the elected (official)." Spoon cautioned that if Democrats vote in the Republican primary for the cand date least likely to beat Clinton in t general election, they would "have to live with the consequences of the reality if he's actually nominated and beats Clinton." Karen Valvo, co-chair of the Washtenaw County Republican Party, said she had not heard reports of any party members intending to vote in the . . I t qy m T Community Center 625 N. Main St. Huron Towers 2222 Fuller Road Church of the Good Shepherd 2145 Independence Blvd. Church of the Good Shepherd 2145 Independence Blvd. nfonnation cagl: (517) 371-5410. South Unh m (A -crnw-I- rs"t 1101 (A Cambridge ,_..:s 1 MIII Hoover ad4 Wward,3 C Granger x.. Sage o ANIflDAI TAVI Afl ,,s Ifl'~AA WRITrJflAiv ANDREW TAYLOR ar wo JOSH WHITE/Daily I