Feb. economic jump
*surprises officials
The Michigan Daily-Thursday, March 31, 1983-Page 3
t .
WASHINGTON - The government's
main economic forecasting gauge rose
14 percent in February, the sixth
straight monthly increase and an en-
couraging sign that recovery from the
recession can be sustained.
The gain reported yesterday for the
Commerce Department's Index of
Leading Economic Indicators was less
than half the 3.5 percent of January -
he biggest increase in three decades -
but no one had expected a repeat of that
jump. Still, the February increase was
the second-biggest since the spring of
981.
Commerce Secretary Malcolm
ialdridge said he was encouraged by
the report.
THE LEADING index for February
was good news again for the economy,"
laldridge said.
Though government and private sec-
tor economists now agree that a,
national economic rebound is well un-
der way from the 1981-82 recession,
some have questioned how long it will
last.
Private economist Michael Evans
said, "I think it means we are in a
recovery but it's an uneven one. I don't
think this is a picture of a strong
economy at all."
HOWEVER, IF the leading in-
dicators perform as designed, fears of a
short-lived revival are ill-founded. The
index would be expected to begin falling
about nine months before any new
national recession arrived, government
analysts say.
The index brings together forward-
pointing statistics from a wide variety
of economic areas, and Baldridge noted
that seven of the available 10 areas
showed improvement.
Donald Straszheim, vice president of
Wharton Econometrics in Philadelphia,
agreed, saying tne size of the overall
gain "is a distinctly good number and
there are more good ones to come."
"We are quite convinced that the
recovery is in place, and the economy is
going to get better as the year goes on,"
he said.
STRASZHEIM noted that the
strongest index component in February
was a highly unusual gain of more than
20 percent at an annual rate in the
nation's money supply, and he said it
was unlikely such a surge would be
repeated. But that gain was hardly the
only strength.
Also showing improvement over
January - and thus helping the index
- were a rise in the prices of sensitive
materials, an increase in formation of
new businesses, a drop in first-time
claims for jobless benefits and better
showings for stock prices, business
deliveries and building permits for
future home construction.
Baldridge, in a statement distributed
by aides, said he was particularly "en-
couraged by the fifth straight monthly
drop in initial unemployment insurance
claims, which are now 27 percent below
their September 1982 peak."
-HAPPENINGS
Highlight
The University's Musket Theatre presents the musical, "Hair" at 8 p.m. at
the Power Center for the Performing Arts.
Films
AAFC - The Day the Earth Stood Still, 7 p.m., The Incredible Shrinking
Man, 8:40 p.m., Angell Aud. A.
Mediatrics - Montenegro, 7 & 9 p.m., Nat. Sci.
Noontime Film Fest - Bomb, 12:10 p.m., Pub. Health Aud II.
Women's Studies - In the Best Interests of the Children, noon, MLB 2.
Nuclear Issue Film Fest - If You Love This Planet, 8 p.m., Couzens
Valentine Lounge.
Performances
School of Music - Opera, "The Marriage of Figaro," 8 p.m., Mendelssohn.
Music School - Cello recital, Kenneth Whitley, 8 p.m., Recital Hall; horn
recital, Cathy Miller, 8 p.m., Rackham Assembly Hall.
Museum of Art - Piano recital, Sadmara Zekarian, 8 p.m., Museum of
Art.
Ark - John Hartford, 7:30 & 9:30 p m., Ark.
Music at Midday - Chamber Music, Heasook Rhee, David Moulton, Joan
Horley, 12:10, Pendleton room, Union.
First Presbyterian Church - Via Crucis, Chancel Choir, 7:30 p.m., First
Presbyterian Church.
Speakers
English - George Rosenwald, "To Give Delight & Teach the Art of Life,"
7:30 p.m., Rackham.
Vision - Pamela Raymond, "The Black Moor Golddish: A Model For
Congenital Glaucoma?" 12:15, 2055 MHRI.
Education - William Cruikshank, "Quantitive or Qualitative Assessment
& Testing of Exceptional Children," noon, 1322 SEB.
Anthropology -Catherine Badgely, "The Taphonomy of a Late Miocene
Hominoid from the Siwaliks of Pakistan," noon, 2009 Museum Bldg.
Urban Planning - Joe Eisely, "The Second Computer Revolution," 11
a.m.,1040 Dana.
Research on Economic Development - Samson Ololmo, "The Role of
Housing and Migration in Nigeria's Economic Development," 12:15, 340U,
Lorch.
Japanese Studies - Dorinne Kondo, "Creating the Ideal Self: A Japanese
Ethics Training Program," noon, commons room, Lane Hall.
Chemistry - E. C. Lim, "Molecular Radiationless Transitions," 4 p.m.,
1200 Chem.
Computing Ctr. - Chitra Ramanujan, "Intro to Pascal VI," 3:30 p.m., 176
BSAD.
HASS - Alfredo Montoya, "Impact of Immigration of Hispanic Workers
in the U.S." 8p.m., Rackham Amphitheater.
Medicinal Chem. - Richard DiPietro, "AMAN Spectroscopy in Structure
Analysis: Application to Medicinal Chemistry," 4 p.m., 3554 Little.
Minority Student Services - Antonio Flores, "Hispanic and Minority Par-
ticipation in Financial Aid Programs," 11:30 a.m., Trotter House.
Japanese Linguistics - Susumu Nagra, "Recent Developments in the
Study of the Origins of the Japanese Language," noon, Lane Hall.
Transport Research Inst. - Michael Gaffney, "Implementation of Social
Technologies into the Ocean Shipping Industries," 4 p.m., TRI conf. rm.
University Artist and Craftsman Guild - Terri Marra, I. B. Pemson,
"History and Opportunity of the Guild," 12:30, Art School Aud, 2nd floor.
Germanic Languages - Tom Beebee, "Politics in the Classroom: The
Bundestag Simulation," 12:10 p.m., MLB 3rd floor commons.
Meetings
LaGroc/Lesbian and Gay Rights Fellowship - 7:30 p.m., Welcker Rm.,
Union.
Ann Arbor Libertarian League - 7 p.m., Dominick's basement, 812
Monroe.
Inter-varsity Christian Fellowship -7 p.m., Union.
Med. Ctr. Bible Study -12:30 p.m., F2230 Mott Children's Hosp.
Campus Crusade for Christ -7 p.m., 2003 Angell.
Graduate Employees Org. - 7:30 p.m., rackham 3rd fl. lecture room.
Miscellaneous
Scottish Country Dancers - Beginning Class, 7 p.m., internediate class, 8
p.m., Forest Hills Community Ctr.
Aikido - Practice, 5 p.m., Wrestling Rm., Athletic Building.
Canterbury Loft & The Michigan Daily - Campus Meet the Press with
Pres. Harold Shapiro, 4 p.m., Pendleton Rm., Union.
International Night - Africa, 5 p.m., Michigan League.
CRLT - Faculty Instructional Workshop, "Managing Stress," 7 p.m.,
registration required.
Student Wood & Crafts Shop - Advanced Power Tools Safety, 6 p.m., 537
SAB.
Spartacus Youth League - Class series, "Trade Unions in the Imperialist
Epoch," 7:30 p.m., conf. rm. 6, Union.
Mich. Judo Club - practice, 6:30 p.m., IM Sports Bldg.
Womens Law Students Assoc. - Conference on Pornography and the First
Amendment, Hutchins Hall, Rm. 100.
Museum of Art - "An American Treasury in Michigan," Museum of Art
and Rare Book Room of the Grad Library.
To submit items for the happenings Column, send them in care of
Happenings, The Michigan Daily, 420 Maynard St., Ann Arbor, M. 48109.
-
Daily Photo by ELIZABETH SCOTT
Videoptics
This video game seems out of place in normal goings-on around William Street.
U.S. arms cuts depend on Soviet reductions
(Continued from Page 1)
proposal is a source of deep disappoin-
tment to all of us who have wished that
these weapons might be eliminated -
or at leastsignificantly reduced,"
Reagan said. "But I do not intend to let
this shadow that has been cast over the
Geneva negotiations further darken our
search for peace."~
His speech was part of an intensified
campaign to win worldwidersupport -
particularly in Europe - for U.S. arms
proposals and to put pressure on the
Soviets to move toward an agreement.
While Moscow had yet to offer a
specific response, U.S. arms expert
Paul Warnke said he doubted the
Kremlin would find Reagan's proposal
very appealing.
"TO THE EXTENT that it appears to
call for equality of warheads between
the United States and the Soviet Union,
it would mean that the Soviets - if they
made a 50 percent cut - would then be
confronted with the entire deployment
of American ground-launched cruise
missiles and Pershing IHs," said War-
nke, head of the Arms Control and
Disarmament Agency in the Carter
administration.
"So, in other words," Warnke added,
"if you look at it literally and without
getting some of the details fleshed out,
there's nothing in it for them."
Rep. Edward Markey (D-Mass.),
sponsor of a congressional resolution
calling for a U.S.-Soviet nuclear freeze,
said "it is about time" the president
made an interim proposal because
"every leader in Europe has been
pleading with Mr. Reagan to get off the
dime and begin negotiating seriously
with the Soviets."
MARKEY ADDED in a statement
that he thought the proposal "is due in
large part to the pressure the freeze
movement across this country has put
on theWhite House to get more serious
about arms control."
After the address and a meeting with
Zambian President Kenneth Kaunda,
Reagan flew to California for a five-day
stay and a speech Thursday in Los
Angeles on curbing nuclear arms,
chemical weapons and cutting the size
of conventional forces in Europe.
In his address, Reagan noted the
Soviet Union has rejected the zero-
option formula for eliminating all
medium-range weapons, and said
Moscow "has failed to come up with
any serious alternative. They insist on
preserving their own monopoly."
THE SENIOR administration official
briefing reporters on condition he not
be identified, said the United States
wants the Soviets to agree to a global
reduction in medium-range weapons to
prevent ..them from taking missiles
targeted on Europe and aiming them
ielsewhere, such as Asia.
Moscow has rejected the zero-plan,
proposing instead that it reduce its for-
ce of medium-range missiles to 162,
matching the number of British and
French medium-range weapons, if the
United States dropped its deployment
plans.
In the absence of any agreement, the
United States is set to begin installing
572 Persing 2 and cruise missiles - each
armed with one warhead - in Europe in
December.
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