Y
Page 2-Tuesday, February 10, 1981-The Michigan Daily
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California
firm sees
deerease i0
inflation
by 1982,
WASHINGTON (AP)-The Reagan
administration, with the help of a
California consulting firm, is predicting
that its economic program will cut in-
flation in half by the end of 1982-a
forecast that flies in the face of what
most conventional economic seers are
saying.
The largest companies that predict
future economic activity expect in-
flation to decline very modestly over
the next two years, from 12.5 percent
last year to about 9 percent or 10 per-
cent in 1982.
THE ADMINISTRATION, however,
has been relying on forecasts by the
Claremont Economics Institute, a
small firm outside Los Angeles, which
predicts that inflation could drop to
around 6 percent by the end of 1982 if
President Reagan's program of tax and
spending cuts is approved by Congress.
By 1983, inflation could fall to 5 percent
or lower, Claremont is projecting.
Other private economists are ex-
pressing considerable skepticism about
that rosy forecast. In Congress, some
disbelieving economic experts reject
the forecast privately as "garbage"
and "absolutely insane." The ranking
Republican on the House Ways and
Means Committee, Rep. Barber
Conable Jr., describes it as "very op-
timistic."
But John Rutledge, the 32-year-old
president of Claremont, contends the
conventional forecasts are flawed and
defends his own economic prediction
model as a more accurate reflection of
the way the world works.
RUTLEDGE ARGUES that his
model, unlike the others, takes into ac-
count the impact of "inflationary ex-
pectations" of Americans.
He explains it this way: If people
think inflation will remain high in the
future, they will take actions that will
help fulfill the prophecy. But if people
can be convinced that inflation will
abate soon, they will act in a way that
will bring inflation tumbling down very
quickly:
The Claremont model and its op-
timistic forecasts have their defenders,
including Alan Greenspan, a private
consultant who was chairman of the
Council of Economic Advisers in the
Ford administration.
Now a key adviser to Reagan, Green-
span has testified before Congress that
inflationary expectations are a key fac-
tor in the nation's economic problems
and that inflation and interest rates
would decline quickly if Reagan's
policies are adopted.
Robert Gough, an economist at
another major forecasting firm, Data
Resources Inc., said he finds
Rutledge's model "very appealing."
}: .. ... ?.... . ..................................... .....................................
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Soviets cited for abasE
WASHINGTON (AP)-The crackdown on the
human rights movement in the Soviet Union last year
was as severe as any in more than a decade and in-
dicates that Kremlin leaders think the movement is a
serious threat to the regime, the State Department
said yesterday.
It said the Soviet government arrested or
prosecuted as many as 100 human rights activists in
1980 and that emigration of Soviet Jews was cut in
half.
THESE=AND OTHER actions "make it clear that
the Soviets regard the limited dissent, and the more
generalized pressure for greater respect for human
rights and for Soviet law which have appeared in
Soviet society in recent years, as a serious threat to
the regime," it added.
The department also charged that the Soviet army
had engaged in "indiscriminate terrorizing" of the
population of Afghanistan, which was occupied by
85,000 Soviet troops in December of 1979.
The department's harsh hudgment of Soviet ac-
tions in the human rights field was contained in its
annual report on human rights practices around the
world.
THE REPORT, covering 153 nations, is mandated
by Congress. The 1980 version was prepared by the
Carter administration; and officials of the Reagan
administration said it does not necessarily represent
their views.I
The human rights review was particularly critical
of rights
of Soviet actions in Afghanistan, including "the
reported use of lethal chemical weapons, trick ex-
plosives and indiscriminate bombing and terrorizing
of the Afghan population."
"In addition to their continuing violation of basic
human and national rights in Afghanistan, Soviet
authorities have also stepped up repression at home
in a crackdown on human rights activists as severe
as any since the beginning of the human rights
movement over a decade ago," the report added..
It made specific mention of the exile of Andre
Sakharov to the closed city of Gorky, in part because
of "his speaking out on the invasion" of Afghanistan,
and the cut in emigration of Soviet Jews to 21,000 in
1980 from 51,000 the year before.
I..
MSU tenured faculty
face possible firings
I
]undes (Day Concerb
Sun4 eur'ij at 2 YO
q4aindfL~ 'c'uas accaI~eus
An Oratorio by George Frederick Handel
with
The Festival Chorus
Donald Bryant, Conductor
Soloists
(Continued from Page 1)
won't be as many problems at the
University because there are financial
reserves here to make'the cuts more
gradually.
MSU Provost Clarence Winder had
requested earlier that all colleges
within MSU recommend departmental
budget reductions ranging from 5 per.
cent to 20 percent. On Jan. 30, deans
from all 16 colleges presented their
suggestions to the Board of Trustees.
Last Friday, after listening to
numerous university committees, the
Glenda Kirkland
Soprano
Rosemary Russell
Mezzo-Soprano.
Waldie Anderson
Tenor
James Tyeska
Bass
Members of the University Symphony Orchestra
General Admission at $3.00
Tickets at Burton Tower, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
Weekdays 9-4:30, Sat. 9-12 (313) 665-3717
Tickets also available at Hill Auditorium
1 i hours before performance time.
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41-80 people... $30.00/weekend
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trustees voted 7-1 to pass the financial
crisis resolution. This enables Mackey
to recommend across-the-board budget
cuts, as well as faculty firings, and
elimination of departments. /
Mackey, Winder and the president's
Select Advisory Committee - an ad hoc
advisory board - will be reviewing the
various budgets to recommend cuts to
the trustees at a Feb. 27 meeting. Final
decisions will rest with the trustees.
FRYE ADMITTED the possibility
that tenured faculty could be laid off at
the University of Michigan, too. "The
difference is of degree and not of prin-
ciple,' he said.
The University of Michigan
recognizes that it may have to cut
departments, "but we are. trying to
relocate personnel rather than lay them
off," Frye said.
The chairman of the Associated
Students of Michigan State University,
Bruce Studer, said the student
organizations should not be directly af-
fected by the budget cuts, but that
decreasing enrollments will cut the
group's revenues. He explained that his
organization's funding comes directly
from fees assessed during registration.
IN BRIEF
Compiled from Associated Press and
United Press international reports
Nebraska university student
charged with three deaths
LINCOLN, Neb. -An 18-year-old university student will be charged in the
deaths of three other students who'died after a car plowed into a crowd
outisde a fraternity party, officials said yesterday.
Lancaster County Attorney Ron Lahners said three counts of felony motor
vehicle homicide would be filed in county court against John Moreland, a
student at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
Lahners said Judge Robert Camp would hold a bond hearing after the
charges were filed.
Moreland, of Lincoln, was arrested Saturday after he allegedly drove his
small car into a crowd outside a community center in southwest Lancaster
County where 0fraternity party attended by more than 38 was breaking up.
He was released in the custody of his attorney.
Execution deadline passes
BEIRUT, Lebanon-A deadline set by a telephone caller for the execution
of a kidnapped Jordanian diplomat passed yesterday with no word of his fate
and no response from Jordon or Iraq to the caller's demand that they ex-
tradite seven Syrian defectors.
On Saturday, the anonymous caller, claiming to represent the pro-Syria
guerrilla group "Eagles of the Revolution," told Voice of Lebanon Radio
that Jordian charge d'affaires Hisham Muhaissen would be killed at 10 a.m.
EST yesterday unless seven Syrian Air Force pilots who defected to Jordan
and Iraq last year were extradited.
A spokesman for the "Eagles", Ossama Bayrakdar, denied in a news con-
ference yesterday that his group had any responsibility for kidnapping
Muhaissen, 42, from his apartment on Friday.
Former governor Ella Grasso
buried, leaves epitath of love
*)n
WINDSOR LOCKS, Ct.-For-
mer Gov. Ella Grasso, who left
her longtime constituents an'
epitath of love, was buried ~ '
yesterday atop a sun-splashed
slope in St. Mary's cemetery next
to her Italian immigrant parents
following a funeral that was
televised across Connecticut.
Amont the 1,750 mourners at-
tending funeral services were
representatives of President
Reagan and Former President
Jimmy Carter.
Church bells tolled around the
state as the Roman Catholic
funeral got under way for the fir-
st woman elected governor of any
state without -succeeding her
husband.
Garwood' defense seeks acquittal
CAMP LEJEUNE, N.C.-Defense lawyers, claiming jurors ignored
evidence that Marine Pfc. Robert Garwood, 34, was mentally ill, yesterday
asked a military judge to throw out their client's conviction for collaborating
with the enemy in Vietnam during two of the 14 years he spent in prisoner-of-
war camps.
Garwood's chief council, John Lowe, told the judge, Col. R.E. Switzer that
the testimonies of a half-dozen psychiatrists have not refuted the claim that
Garwood was driven insane by torture and did not know his actions were
wrong.
The panel is to hear more evidence this week before sentencing Garwood,
who could be given a life term.
Mising teen identifies neighbor
as Atlanta child kidnapper
ATLANTA-A 15-year-old runaway, whom officials had considered listing
among Atlanta's 17 dead and missing black children, yesterday identified "a
man in my neighborhood" as the kidnapper in a series of December child
abductions.
Lee Gooch, who left his Atlanta home Jan. 5, had been jailed in
Tallahassee, Fla, under the name of Lee Kendell-his mother's maiden
name-from Jan. 14 until last Saturday.
He was returned to the Leon County sheriff's office in Tallahassee yester-
day when he called to see if he could retrieve the car he was driving when he
was arrested on reckless driving charges.
When asked if he knew anything about the Atlanta mystery, he responded
that "a man in my neighborhood snatched some kids in December. It's a
kidnapping deal."
Vol. XCI, No.112
Tuesday, February 10, 1981
The Michigan Daily is edited and managed by students at The University
of Michigan. Published 'daily Tuesday through Sunday mornings during the
University year at 420 Maynard Street, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 48109.
Subscription rates: $12 September through April (2 semesters); $13 by mail
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0
THE STUDENT BODY is being
realistic about the cuts, Studer said.
"People would be fooling themselves if
they didn't believe there will be shor-
tfalls next year.
"All-in-all, we're pretty supportive of
the budget cuts that are happening," he
added. Studer said his organization has
been involved with decisions about
academic cuts, but hasn't been too suc-
cessful with cuts in non-academic
areas.
Besides the practical attitude most
students have about budget reductions,
Studer added, students also have not
yet realized how they will be affected
by the cuts. He explained that any reac-
tion probably won't be forthcoming un-
til fall.
BRUCE HOCKING, president of the
Council of Graduate Students, said 65
graduate assistant positions have been
slated for termination. "When push
comes to shove, the GAs are going first,"
he said.
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Editor-in-chief .....................SARA ANSPACH
Managing Editor ..............JULIE. ENGEBRECHT
University Editor......... ........LORENZO BENET
Student Affairs Editor .............. JOYCE FRIEDEN
City Editor ........................ELAINE RIDEOUT
Opinion Poge Editors ................ DAVID MEYER
KEVIN TOTTIS
Arts Editor.........................ANNE GADON
Sports Editor. Mark Mihanovic
Executive Sports Editors....... ...... Greg DeGulis
Mark Fischer
Buddy Moorehouse
Drew Sharp
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Business Manager.................-RANDI CIGELNIK
Sales Manager ...................8ARB FORSLUND
Operations Manager .............. SUSANNE KELLY
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Assistant Display Manager ..... . NANCY JOSLIN
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