The Michigan Daily-Saturday, October 17,;1981-Page 3
EARLY CONCESSION SPEECH REDUCES VOTER TURNOUT
Forecast of Reagan win hurt Carter, study says
CINCINNATI-Media projections of
a Reagan victory before the polls closed
across the country in the 1980 national
election reduced voter turnout to some
degree, University researchers repor-
ted here yesterday.
They estimated that the projections
reduced the voter turnout rate among
those who heard the projections by 6
percent to 11 percent, when compared
to individuals who did not hear news of
the outcome.
POLITICAL SCIENCE Prof. John
Jackson, a research scientist in the
Center for Political Studies of the
University's Institute for Social
Research, and colleague William
McGee reported at a meeting of the
National Professional Conference of
Women in Communications Inc., that
Carter supporters and Democrats were
more influenced by exposure to early,
a reporting of the projected outcome than
were Reagan supporters and
Republicans.
The researchers noted that such
media efforts are more likely to be
pronounced in elections where the race,
contrary to prior expectations, is not
close.
They also cautioned that because of
sample limitations, their findings
should not be used to make inferences
about national or local elections-
THE STUDY involved post-election
re-interviews of a subsample of respon-
dents in the ISR 1980 National Election
Study conducted by the Center for
Political Studies. It was funded with a
grant from the John and Mark R.
Markle Foundation and ABC News.
Respondents were asked the time
they voted on election day and when
they first heard election results and
projections. Analysis by Jackson and
McGee indicated that many people
followed media reporting of election
news. Fifty-seven percent of the sample
indicated they heard the projections of
the outcome before that time.
"This information had a substantial
and significant impact on the likelihood
of voting," the University researchers
said.
"WITHIN REPRESENTATIVE
groups of eligible people in our sample
who 1) had the average likelihood of
voting, who 2) had not voted by the time
news coverage began, and who 3) still
had until 8 p.m. local time to vote, the
'The overall turnout rate . . dropped
by 6 to 11 percent as a result o f non-
voting'
-ISR 1980 national Election Study
estimated proportion voting dropped 20
to 25 percent if they heard Carter's
(concession) speech, the projected out-
come, or both.
"If this entire group of possible
voters is added to the larger group of
citizens who had voted before election
coverage began, the overall turnout
rate for the combined groups dropped
by 6 to 11 percent as a result of non-
voting among those who had not voted
when they heard the news of the elec-
tion outcome."
Hearing either Carter's concession
speech or the projected outcome has
the same effect on the proportion of
people voting, the study revealed.
Other forms of election coverage, such
as the reporting of actual returns and
afternoon coverage of the election, has
no appreciable effect on turnout for
people who had not voted by the time
they were exposed to the news.
JACKSON AND McGEE emphasized
that "the reduced turnout's impact on
the outcome of the presidential and
other contests cannot be determined
with any degree of confidence because
of the small sizes of the relevant sub-
samples available for analysis. Never-
theless, analyses of the candidate
preferences and partisan divisions of
those who beard results before the local
polls closed suggest that Carter suppor-
ters and Democrats were more influen-
ced by exposure to the reporting of the
outcome than were Reagan supporters
and Republicans. The differential tur-
nout rates both among Reagan and Car-
ter supporters and among Republicans
and Democrats who had not voted by 6
p.m. EST and who heard reports of a
Reagan victory were about 20 percent."
The study offered there conclusions:
" that many people heard projections
of the outcome before the local polls
closed;
" that those who heard these results
before the polls closed were less likely
to vote if they had not already done so
than were people who did not hear the
news;
" that these effects on turnout dif-
fered among partisans and candidate
supporters, and it was Carter and the
Democrats who were disadvantaged.
Respondents in the study, they added,
"are not representative of national, and
definitely not of regional populations.
The results, then, should not be used to
make any inferences about the national
election, and certainly not about local
contests ... We feel comfortable with
the conclusion that exposure to projec-
tions of the election outcome alters in-
dividual decisions about voting, which
is the necessary first condition for
overall turnout to be affected by elec--
tion night news reporting."
Concerning the effects early report
ting might have on other presidential
elections, the University researchers
suggest that if projections "only con:
firm voter expectations, we should ex-
pect little impact, per se, from ex=
posure to the projections.. . People'
whose decision to vote might be in-
fluenced by the election's expected
closeness will already have taken this
factor into account and are not likely to
be influenced by a confirming election
day projection. . . The early reporting
of projections may only alter turnout in
elections where the projections differ
from prior expectations. An election
where people anticipate a close race,
but where the early returns and projec-
tions indicate the opposite, is the
situation we expect to see a drop in tur-
nout directly related to the media's
coverage."
Conversely, they added, "Where
people expect a one-sided election that
in fact turns out to be close, such as
1968, early reporting of this closeness
may spur people to vote who might not
have under the expectation of no con-
test."
- ------ --- ------- -
* rouction
decline
may signal
"recession
WASHINGTON (AP)- The nation's industrial
production fell 0.8 percent in September to the lowest
level in more than a year, the government said
yesterday. Some analysts termed the report strong
evidence the economy is in a recession.
"From a layman's perspective ... it says we are in
a recession," said private economist David Cross,
who added the downturn probably would be a very
mild one.
"IT'S ALMOST inescapable that we're in a
recession," said Allen Sinai, vice president and
senior economist at the economic forecasting firm of
Data Resources Inc. in Lexington, Mass.
"The real question is whether we're going to have a
continuation of the mild downturn or whether it will
evolve into a much more significant downturn," he
said.
The Commerce Department's chief economist,
Robert Ortner, declined to go that far.
THE NEW FIGURES, he said, "are certainly fur-
ther evidence that the economy has slowed down. The
decline in September is substantial enough to raise
the question of whether the economy is beginning to
decline possibly into a recession." Any recession, he
predicted, would probably be mild and short.
If the economy is in a recession, it would be the
eighth since World War II. A recession is commonly
defined as two consecutive quarters of negative gross
national product, which measures the rate of growth,
of the national economy.
'The government next week releases figures on the
growth rate in the third quarter of this year. Very
preliminary estimates of the July-September period
showed a slim decline at an annual rate of 0.5 per-
cent. For the second quarter, the decline was at a 1.6
percent annual rate.
THE LATEST figures from the Federal Reserve
Board on industrial production were not unexpected
by analysts, who noted they followed a 0.3 percent
decline in August and a 0.6 percent gain in July.
"It's really an acceleration of the August decline,"
said Cross, a senior economist with Chase
Econometrics in Bala Cynwyd, Pa.
He said the September drop was "still reflecting
some of the serious weakness in the economy as far
as the housing and auto industries." The
deterioration in those industries, he said, has spilled
over into other industries.
The drop in industrial production last month was
the largest since a 0.8 percent decline in July of 1980
at the end of last year's recession.
THE REPORT WAS in line with other recent
government statistics indicating that the economy is
lagging or even declining.
The Commerce Department reported this week
that inventory stockpiles held by American
businesses were up 0.7 percent in August as sales fell
1 percent.
Join
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News Stafff
Court bars abortion for young rape victim
KALAMAZOO, Mich. (AP) - A judge
refused yesterday to overturn a fower
court ruling that prohibited an abortion
for an 11-year-old girl who is 23 weeks
pregnant by her mother's boyfriend.
The decision by Kalamazoo County
Circuit Judge John Fitzgerald came in
fan appeal of a ruling by Juvenile Court
Jude Donald Halsteadwho had refused
to order an abortion, isaying he lacked
the authority to do so.
THE GIRL IS a ward of Kalamazoo
County Probate Court and judges so far
have refused to allowed her father, an
ex-convict divorced from the girl's
mother, to be named legal guardian or
receive temporary custody.
The child's court appointed lawyer,
Nelson Pelletier, said the father has
agreed to an abortion for his daughter.
After the ruling, Pelletier said he is
considering an emergency appeal to the
state Court of Appeals.
IN HIS RULING, Fitzgerald said
Halstead had not abused his discretion
in not granting temporary custody to
the natural father.
Halstead, who also is a probate judge,
apparently felt he could not rule on the
case as a juvenile judge but could if the
request had been filed in probate court,
Fitzgerald said.
The case was remanded to the
juvenile court, allowing the decision to
stand. However, Fitzgerald said
Pelletier could request a rehearing in
juvenile court, file a similar request in
probate court or take the circuit court
ruling to the state Court of Appeals.
"I'm NOT SAYING abortion is a real
good thing," Pelletier said. "I'm just
saying that, as I read the law, abortion is
available to this girl. As I hear the
testimony, abortion is necessary for this
girl."
UNDER FEDERAL law and state
regulations, abortions are permitted only
within the first 24 weeks of pregnancy,
Pelletier said.
The mother's boyfried faces first-
degree criminal sexual conduct
charges in connection with the
pregnancy, Pelletier said.
The girl and her 9-year-old sister
were named wards of the court Sept. 23
by Halstead, who said their mother
neglected them. Both live with their
mother, which Pelletier said he did not
oppose because he felt the girl would be
better off in familiar surroundings.
The mother does not want her
daughter to have an abortion, the lawyer
said,
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He added that doctors1
pregnancy probably
physically harm the girl.
have said the
would not
"It would be developmentally inap-
propriate for her to have a child at this
point," Pelletier said. "How could she
develop herself into an adult if she has a
child at this age?"
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-HAPPENINGS-
HIGHLIGHT
Michael Cooney, a "you name it, he'll sing it, one man folk" will perform
on a 12 string, 6 string, banjo, concertina, at The Ark, 1421 Hill, Saturday
night, B and 10:30 p.m. For information, call 761-1415.
FILMS
Alternative Action Film Schedule-The Sleeper, MLB 3,7 & 9p.m.
Cinema II-Bye-Bye Brazil, Aud. A, Angell, 7 & 9 p.m.
Mediatrics-Beach Blanket Bingo, Nat. Sci., 7 p.m.; Batman, 9 p.m.
AAFC-The Stunt Man, MLB 3,7 & 9 p.m.
Cinema Guild-Cousin, Cousin, Lorch Hall Aud., 7 & 9 p.m.
SPEAKERS
Interdepartmental Program in Medicinal Chem. and College of Phar-
macy-Blicke Memorial Lec., Dr. Adrien Albert, "Current Trends in Drug
Design," Amphitheatre, Sheraton Univ. Inn, 9 a.m.
MEETINGS
A Go-Club, Mtg.,1433 Mason Hall, 2-7 p.m.
PERFORMANCES
5t
500 E. Liberty, Ann Arbor
DOLLAR DAY
Every Monday
4 tokens $1 .00
RIDE ON 0
AMAZE N' BLUE
MACHINE
STUDENT NIGHT
Every Sunday
5 P.M.-1 2 MID.
5 okn fo*$0
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The United Mime Workers-' Mime Is No Object : The Reproduction of the
Working Day," Canterbury Loft, 332 S. State Street, Saturday Matinee, 2
p.m., and evening, 8p.m.
Center for Russian & East European Studies-A festival of Yiddish
culture, Theodore Bikel, "An Evening of Jewish Song," Power Center, 8:30
p.m. Tickets from Hillel, 663-3336.
Professional Theatre Program-"Blood Knot," Lydia Mendelssohn
Theatre, 8 p.m.
UAC Special Events-Comedian of the Century, Tom Parks, Union
Ballroom, 8 p.m., $3.
HAPPY HOUR
Every
Tues-, Wed, Thurs.
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