The Michigan Daily-Saturday, October 17,;1981-Page 3 EARLY CONCESSION SPEECH REDUCES VOTER TURNOUT Forecast of Reagan win hurt Carter, study says CINCINNATI-Media projections of a Reagan victory before the polls closed across the country in the 1980 national election reduced voter turnout to some degree, University researchers repor- ted here yesterday. They estimated that the projections reduced the voter turnout rate among those who heard the projections by 6 percent to 11 percent, when compared to individuals who did not hear news of the outcome. POLITICAL SCIENCE Prof. John Jackson, a research scientist in the Center for Political Studies of the University's Institute for Social Research, and colleague William McGee reported at a meeting of the National Professional Conference of Women in Communications Inc., that Carter supporters and Democrats were more influenced by exposure to early, a reporting of the projected outcome than were Reagan supporters and Republicans. The researchers noted that such media efforts are more likely to be pronounced in elections where the race, contrary to prior expectations, is not close. They also cautioned that because of sample limitations, their findings should not be used to make inferences about national or local elections- THE STUDY involved post-election re-interviews of a subsample of respon- dents in the ISR 1980 National Election Study conducted by the Center for Political Studies. It was funded with a grant from the John and Mark R. Markle Foundation and ABC News. Respondents were asked the time they voted on election day and when they first heard election results and projections. Analysis by Jackson and McGee indicated that many people followed media reporting of election news. Fifty-seven percent of the sample indicated they heard the projections of the outcome before that time. "This information had a substantial and significant impact on the likelihood of voting," the University researchers said. "WITHIN REPRESENTATIVE groups of eligible people in our sample who 1) had the average likelihood of voting, who 2) had not voted by the time news coverage began, and who 3) still had until 8 p.m. local time to vote, the 'The overall turnout rate . . dropped by 6 to 11 percent as a result o f non- voting' -ISR 1980 national Election Study estimated proportion voting dropped 20 to 25 percent if they heard Carter's (concession) speech, the projected out- come, or both. "If this entire group of possible voters is added to the larger group of citizens who had voted before election coverage began, the overall turnout rate for the combined groups dropped by 6 to 11 percent as a result of non- voting among those who had not voted when they heard the news of the elec- tion outcome." Hearing either Carter's concession speech or the projected outcome has the same effect on the proportion of people voting, the study revealed. Other forms of election coverage, such as the reporting of actual returns and afternoon coverage of the election, has no appreciable effect on turnout for people who had not voted by the time they were exposed to the news. JACKSON AND McGEE emphasized that "the reduced turnout's impact on the outcome of the presidential and other contests cannot be determined with any degree of confidence because of the small sizes of the relevant sub- samples available for analysis. Never- theless, analyses of the candidate preferences and partisan divisions of those who beard results before the local polls closed suggest that Carter suppor- ters and Democrats were more influen- ced by exposure to the reporting of the outcome than were Reagan supporters and Republicans. The differential tur- nout rates both among Reagan and Car- ter supporters and among Republicans and Democrats who had not voted by 6 p.m. EST and who heard reports of a Reagan victory were about 20 percent." The study offered there conclusions: " that many people heard projections of the outcome before the local polls closed; " that those who heard these results before the polls closed were less likely to vote if they had not already done so than were people who did not hear the news; " that these effects on turnout dif- fered among partisans and candidate supporters, and it was Carter and the Democrats who were disadvantaged. Respondents in the study, they added, "are not representative of national, and definitely not of regional populations. The results, then, should not be used to make any inferences about the national election, and certainly not about local contests ... We feel comfortable with the conclusion that exposure to projec- tions of the election outcome alters in- dividual decisions about voting, which is the necessary first condition for overall turnout to be affected by elec-- tion night news reporting." Concerning the effects early report ting might have on other presidential elections, the University researchers suggest that if projections "only con: firm voter expectations, we should ex- pect little impact, per se, from ex= posure to the projections.. . People' whose decision to vote might be in- fluenced by the election's expected closeness will already have taken this factor into account and are not likely to be influenced by a confirming election day projection. . . The early reporting of projections may only alter turnout in elections where the projections differ from prior expectations. An election where people anticipate a close race, but where the early returns and projec- tions indicate the opposite, is the situation we expect to see a drop in tur- nout directly related to the media's coverage." Conversely, they added, "Where people expect a one-sided election that in fact turns out to be close, such as 1968, early reporting of this closeness may spur people to vote who might not have under the expectation of no con- test." - ------ --- ------- - * rouction decline may signal "recession WASHINGTON (AP)- The nation's industrial production fell 0.8 percent in September to the lowest level in more than a year, the government said yesterday. Some analysts termed the report strong evidence the economy is in a recession. "From a layman's perspective ... it says we are in a recession," said private economist David Cross, who added the downturn probably would be a very mild one. "IT'S ALMOST inescapable that we're in a recession," said Allen Sinai, vice president and senior economist at the economic forecasting firm of Data Resources Inc. in Lexington, Mass. "The real question is whether we're going to have a continuation of the mild downturn or whether it will evolve into a much more significant downturn," he said. The Commerce Department's chief economist, Robert Ortner, declined to go that far. THE NEW FIGURES, he said, "are certainly fur- ther evidence that the economy has slowed down. The decline in September is substantial enough to raise the question of whether the economy is beginning to decline possibly into a recession." Any recession, he predicted, would probably be mild and short. If the economy is in a recession, it would be the eighth since World War II. A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative gross national product, which measures the rate of growth, of the national economy. 'The government next week releases figures on the growth rate in the third quarter of this year. Very preliminary estimates of the July-September period showed a slim decline at an annual rate of 0.5 per- cent. For the second quarter, the decline was at a 1.6 percent annual rate. THE LATEST figures from the Federal Reserve Board on industrial production were not unexpected by analysts, who noted they followed a 0.3 percent decline in August and a 0.6 percent gain in July. "It's really an acceleration of the August decline," said Cross, a senior economist with Chase Econometrics in Bala Cynwyd, Pa. He said the September drop was "still reflecting some of the serious weakness in the economy as far as the housing and auto industries." The deterioration in those industries, he said, has spilled over into other industries. The drop in industrial production last month was the largest since a 0.8 percent decline in July of 1980 at the end of last year's recession. THE REPORT WAS in line with other recent government statistics indicating that the economy is lagging or even declining. The Commerce Department reported this week that inventory stockpiles held by American businesses were up 0.7 percent in August as sales fell 1 percent. Join Gtbe ~I News Stafff Court bars abortion for young rape victim KALAMAZOO, Mich. (AP) - A judge refused yesterday to overturn a fower court ruling that prohibited an abortion for an 11-year-old girl who is 23 weeks pregnant by her mother's boyfriend. The decision by Kalamazoo County Circuit Judge John Fitzgerald came in fan appeal of a ruling by Juvenile Court Jude Donald Halsteadwho had refused to order an abortion, isaying he lacked the authority to do so. THE GIRL IS a ward of Kalamazoo County Probate Court and judges so far have refused to allowed her father, an ex-convict divorced from the girl's mother, to be named legal guardian or receive temporary custody. The child's court appointed lawyer, Nelson Pelletier, said the father has agreed to an abortion for his daughter. After the ruling, Pelletier said he is considering an emergency appeal to the state Court of Appeals. IN HIS RULING, Fitzgerald said Halstead had not abused his discretion in not granting temporary custody to the natural father. Halstead, who also is a probate judge, apparently felt he could not rule on the case as a juvenile judge but could if the request had been filed in probate court, Fitzgerald said. The case was remanded to the juvenile court, allowing the decision to stand. However, Fitzgerald said Pelletier could request a rehearing in juvenile court, file a similar request in probate court or take the circuit court ruling to the state Court of Appeals. "I'm NOT SAYING abortion is a real good thing," Pelletier said. "I'm just saying that, as I read the law, abortion is available to this girl. As I hear the testimony, abortion is necessary for this girl." UNDER FEDERAL law and state regulations, abortions are permitted only within the first 24 weeks of pregnancy, Pelletier said. The mother's boyfried faces first- degree criminal sexual conduct charges in connection with the pregnancy, Pelletier said. The girl and her 9-year-old sister were named wards of the court Sept. 23 by Halstead, who said their mother neglected them. Both live with their mother, which Pelletier said he did not oppose because he felt the girl would be better off in familiar surroundings. The mother does not want her daughter to have an abortion, the lawyer said, ANN ARBOR GOLD AND SILVER EXCHANGE 216 S. Fourth Ave. St996-9459. ANTED 'O pATNUM 9 °oW -0WD POcKET AnyItemMorked10 kt 140 I-kt WACHES DENTAL GOLD FOREIGN GOLD GOLD METALS CLASS RINGS WEDDING BANDS EYEGLASS FRAMES GOLD COINS GOLD PINS GOLD CUFF LINKS BROKEN JEWELRY ,* DIAMONDS GOLD WATCHES SILVER We purchase any