THE MICHIGAN DAILY
Saturday, January 8, 1977
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U.S. INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE INDICATES:
WASHINGTON (Reuter) -
isicalPresident-elect Jimmy Carter's
pledge to cut defense spending
is running up against a somber
new U.S. intelligence estimate
that the Soviet Union is seeking
12 military superiority over the
-7 p.m. The top-secret National Intel-
ion ligence Estimate, strongly influ-
enced by hard-line experts from
outside the government, takes
issue with the previous U.S. as-
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sessment that the Soviet Union
was satisfied with its . current
rough military parity with the
THE BELIEF that rough mili
tary parity is satisfactory to
both sides has guided U.S. stra-
tegic doctrine and military pro-
curements for the past several
years. It is the reason the.
United States has not automat-
ically tried to match every new
Soviet missile or nuclear war-
10, 11, 12
611 Church A2 995-5955
Leaks of the new, pessimistic1
view have thus produced a sus-t
picion that its formulators are
trying both to reverse current1
policy, which they regard as
U.S. complacency, and to fore-
stall Carter's pledged defense
"It just couldn't be furthera
from the truth," Director ofj
Central Intelligence George
Bush says of the suspicion ,that
the new report is an attempt to
force Carter's hand.
"THE CIA has great integrity,
and it would never take direc-
tions from a policy-maker, me
The CIA would never
take directions from a
policy maker in order
to come up with a con.
belief in their inevitable triumrph achieved military superiority
throughout the world. and are in fact planning on war.
One of the most recent dis-
putes concerned Soviet military GENERAL Keegan said he
spending. Last October, Ameri- had firm evidence that the Rus-
can intelligence( experts decided sians were hardening missile
that the Russians spent about 11 silostso that they are' less vul-
per cent of their gross nationial nerable to U.S. countec-attack,
product on defense - almost building new bomb shelters for
double the previous estimate. the leadership and providing
But the experts explained that more civil defense pro-ectioq for
this did not really mean that So- the civilian population and in-
viet d e f e n s e spending had dustry.
doubled. What it means is that "What it all means is that the
they had previously underesti- Soviets believe they can sut vive
mated the amount of economic a nuclear war," he said.
effort the Russians must make
in order to achieve a desired
IN THE topsy-turvy world of
intelligence estimates, the So-
viet military effort has been#
measured not only in U.S. dol-
lars but also in terms of how
much the same effort would
cost the United States.
This means that if the Soviet
Union uses 1000 soldiers, each
earning private's pay of three7
rubles a month, to build a dam,
the United States estimate ofj
the miionthly cost is not what
logic dictates - 3,000 rubles.
Rather, the United States cal-
culates how much it would cost
to build the same dam using
American soldiers, who earn up
to 300 and 400 times as much as
their Russian counterparts, and
cites that answer as the Soviet
Clausewitzian terms -
which is the way the
Soviets look at it, war
a continuation ofi
or anybody else, in order to
come up with a conclusion," he TlHS METHOD of reasoning
said in a televised news con- has meant that whenever U.S.
ference. servicemen received a pay rise
But the annual estimate of of say five per cent, the Soviet
Soviet military intentions has military budget, as estimate:l by
long been a subject of dispute U.S. intelligence, was increased
within the intelligence commu- five per cent.
nity. Yet the upward revisioti of tie
Military men feel that in the Soviet defense budget last Oc-
nast, too much credence has tober - much as it anoears to
been given to economic intelli- be a mere juggling of figures -
gence that tends to minimize the shares. with reports. of an in-
effectiveness of the Soviet mili- creased Soviet civil defense ef-
tary machine. fort, the responsibility for the
new intelligence estimai@.
AMERICAN' students of Com- Major General George Kee-
rnunist ideology feel that intel- gan, who retired Janary 2 as
ligence professionals give too the Air Force Chief of Intelli-
much weight to satellite photo- gence, told the New York Times
Graphs of new missile sites and last week that he is convinced
not enough to the Communists' I the Russians have already
continuation of politics by other
General Keegan was one oft
the outside experts who influ-i
enced the more pessimistic new
OTHERS, while not sharing aili
his views, say the professional
intelligence establishment ap to
now has been too confident thatl
the Soviet Union regards war,
Professor Richard Pipes of!
Harvard University said he and
his colleagues "view Soviet pol-
icy in Clausewitzian terms -
which is the way the Soviets!
look at it."
The reference is to the doc-
trine of Prussian general Karl
von Clausewitz that war is a
BUT WHILE warning that the
remlin may still think in terms
f armed conquest, the estimate
reportedly vague on when and
ow it may choose to achieve
The imprecision is significant.
One expert said the Soviet
Jnion's p6ssible dreams of mili-
ary victory are not all that im-
,orrant. What is important, he
irgued, is whether the United
;tates can successfully resist So-
iet military attack.
UNDER current, and projected
J.S. defense programs, he add-
d, the 'United States can and
vill deter any Soviet aggression.
For all its pessimism, the es-
imate does not call upon the
resident to abandon efforts at
[etente or arms control witmthe
>oviet Union, leaving tha Judg-
nent to him.
"We will oass the itelligence
stimates along to the consum-
rs (high government officials)
and then the policy makers will
make the determinations as to
whether or not the policy is vi-
able," Bush said.
BUT THE leak of the new as-
sessment, and the cntroversy
between the two groups of in-
elligence experts who composed
t may make it more difficult for
Carter to make a disnssionate
i'elgment on future defence pos-
The diirlosre that lie Amer-
iran intelligence community has
agreed on a new Soviet threat
will uindohedly increase he
noliiPal presure on Carter to
increase. rather than reduce,
America's own defe me spend-
Un to now the United States
has arg'ie' that it is enough
to hae s9iffi-ient nuciear might
to i-f'i-t "inacceotable dam-
age" on an aegressor.
Bt henceforth it may be
harder for the President to de-
fe"d te argiment that the
United Stats is safe so 'ong as
it has rorTh eq'ivalence with
the So0 irj Union - eve.1 thcugh
that rfoiioh ea"ivalen^.e may
men that the United Sates is
in fart "'irneicalv fr hysical-
l" inferior to the Rusans in
troops and missiles.
THFE MICH" '" DAIY
Volume LXXXVI, No. 80
saturday, January 8, 1977
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