Page 10-Sunday, February 18, 1979-The Michigan Daily
INVASION WAS EXPECTED
Local ex + rts ar escala Ition of Indochina con lIC
By TOM MIRGA
University foreign political experts
were not stunned yesterday by news
that China had invaded Vietnam, but
expressed grave concern that the
fighting might escalate severely if the
Chinese prolong their presence there.
Local Asia watchers said the Soviet
Union might attack Chinese border
troops if Peking continues its advance
into Vietnam, and would not rule out the
possibility of a major conflict between
the two superpowers.
"IT DIDN'T surprise me one bit,"
said William Zimmerman, former
director of the Center fo' Russian and
Eastern European Studies. "China has
had a good track record of saying what
they mean," he stated, "and (Vice-
Premier) Teng's (Hsiao-ping) com-
ments here and in Japan clearly poin-
ted to somelsort of action."-
Political Science Prof. William Ting
noted China has a record of limited
military objectives in the past, pointing
to the border skirmishes with India in
1962 as a good example.
"Chinese military operations in the
past have always been very careful
strategic strikes. It has usually been a
case of strike and pufi back, and I would
hope that this is the case now," Ting
said.
But escalation of the conflict was the
key concern of the experts, who focused
their attention on the highly sensitive
Sino-Soviet border, where a combined.
total of nearly three million troops are
massed, according to United Press In-
ternational.
"The situation there is very touchy,"
said Ting. "China is well aware that the
Soviets may strike back. A prolonged
Chinese attack in Vietnam would give
the USSR all the reason it needs to
strike. I would expect to see a military
move by the Soviets within the next few
days if the mess doesn't clear up."
Albert Feuerwerker, director of the
Center for Chinese Studies, said the
Soviets had several options, including
direct military assistance - such as the
deployment of pilots in Vietnam - or a
show of force in Central Asia.
"SOVIET MANNING of anti-aircraft
positions or piloting of aircraft for Viet-
nam is not impossible," said Zimmer-
man.
"We now have information that there
were Soviet pilots in direct combat in
Korea, in Egypt in 1970, and in Vietnam
in 1966," he said. "That's precisely the
level of support that they would like to
give."
OPERA AWARDS
SAN FRANCISCO (AP)-The
National Opera Institute recently
presented its 1979 Awards for Service to
American Opera at a gathering here.,
The awards are "designed to focus
public attention on the achievements of
those who make outstanding con-
tributions to the excellence of opera in
the United States."
The Santa Fe Opera (John O. Crosby,
general director) received the Award
for Outstanding Service to Young Ar-
tists.
The Seattle Opera (Glynn Ross,
general director) received the Award
for Outstanding Cormunity Service.
The Minnesota Opera Company
(Charles C. Fullmer, general director)
was given the Award for Creation of
New American Works.
During 1969 border skirmishes bet-
ween China and Russia, Ting noted, the
Russians changed the commanders of
their border guard, replacing them
with strategic nuclear specialists. "It's
very possible that they might give the
same kind of warning to China again,"
Zimmerman said.
"IT IS NECESSARY to consider the
following:"' Ting continued, "how long
the battle lasts and how intense the
fighting becomes. If it is short and
purely tactical, the Soviets will
probably limit their involvement to
warnings."
John Whitmore, from the Center for
South and Southeastern Asian Studies,
said China and Vietnam have a long
history of animosity, going back hun-
dreds of years.,
"The Chinese have been idiotic," he
said, "and I don't see what they
possibly have to gain. Teng stresses
punishment, but China has tried that
for hundreds of years and has never
had total success. Given the presence of
battle-hardened Vietnamese troops, I'd
think that they are quite ready to fight
it out tooth and nail."
WHITMORE SAID he expects the
Vietnamese, to revert to the type of
guerrilla tactics that enabled them to
defeat the U.S. should the Chinese con-
tinue their invasion.
"Those are rather rough hills out
there (on the border)," he said. "If this
Housing Rapica Drawing
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becomes a prolonged battle, the Viet-
namese will punish the Chinese with
short strikes, kill off a number of them
and pull back. China may bloody Viet-
nam's nose, but the Vietnamese will be
sure to fight back."
Most of the experts agreed there was
little, if anything, the Carter ad-
ministration could have done to prevent
the invasion, or do now to limit fighting.
"There's nothing that the U.S. could do
nor anything they should do either,"
said Feuerwerker. "We're in a tight
spot having just opened relatiorns with
the Chinese, -we can't afford to be too
critical."
Ting said the Carter administration is
in a very difficult situation because of
worldopinion that the attack is connec-
ted in some way to Vice-Premier
Teng's.recent visit to the U.S.
"We did not clearly disengage our-
selves from anti-Soviet comments,"
Ting said. "Tbe joint communique
issued by Carter and Teng used the
word 'hegemony', clearly a code word
for anti-Sovietism."
Feuerwerker said the U.S. has little
leverage to exert on the forces in the
conflict. "Our hands are tied. We can't
adopt an unequivocal position, as that
would have a serious impact on our
relations with China and Russia., If
there should be a serious Soviet
military response," he said, "there's
nothing that we can do but-watch."
Americans
evacuate
Iran-
From AP and Reuter
Some 825 weary but relieved Ameri-
cans were evacuated from Iran yester
day on flights to Rome, Athens, and
Frankfurt in a continuing airlift of U.S.
citizens from the besieged country.
Most of the evacuees were soon tran=
sferred to another special flight to the
U.S.
Meanwhile, in Iran, domestic air ser-
vice started and workers were reported
streaming back to the oil fields
following Ayatollah Ruhollal
Khomeini's orders to end the crippling
strikes that helped topple the shah.
Iran's state radio, which now calls it-
self toe "True Voice of Revolution,'
claimed the back-to-work order was
widely obeyed, although independent
confirmation from outlying areas coulC
not be obtained.
WED., Feb. 21
- 7:30 p.m.
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