Conference Says Nation's Economic Outlook
GoG
By SUSAN HOLTZER
Sunny skies over the nation's economy were forecast by both
participants and speakers at yesterday's sixth annual Conference on
the Economic Outlook.
In a special survey, 72 economists attending the conference agreed
in general that the present recovery will continue. However, about
half said the upswing will continue throughout 1959, with the rest
predicting a leveling-off toward the end of the year.
Gross National Product, most significant barometer of a nation's
economic strength, was expected to reach an all-time peak. The
economists predicted an increase in the total production of goods
and services of about four or five per cent above 1958, or an average
figure of $459 billion.
Estimates Five Per Cent
Agreeing with the survey, Prof. John B. Lansing of the econ-
omics department based his' estimate of a five per cent GNP hike
on an increase of $7,.5 billion in government spending in 1959.
Prof. Lansing predicted a definite pick-up in gross private capi-
tal investment, through increases in business spending and new home
construction, and an end to inventory liquidation.
This year may also see the return of normal employment, Prof.
Lansing said. He estimated a possible drop to 2.2 million unemployed
throughout the country.
Unemployment Drop Seen
The survey, however, reached a conservative unemployment fig-
ure of 3.8 million, one million below the projected 1958 total.
Minimizing the threat of inflation, two economists agreed with
the survey that there will be no significant rise in consumer prices.
The survey average was an approximate one per cent increase in
the consumers price index.{
Robert W. Storer and M. Dutton Morehouse, speaking in a panel
discussion, both said that fears of inflation may have been exagger-
ated.
Price Level Seen 'Stable'
"The price level over the next few years will be relatively stable,"
Morehouse declared. He added that monetary policy will have an
effect on inflationary control through more tax collections, budget
reductions and the financing of part of the national debt outsidet
the federal banking system.
Outlining the consumer's position, Prof. George Katona of the
economics and psychology departments said he did not expect an'
actual boom in consumer spending. Prof. Katona heads the econmic
program of the University's Survey Research Center.,
National income, while higher now than at this time last year,
has not increased enough to compensate for large advances in pro-
ductivity, he said. Increased prices and population were also consid-
ered factors in minimizing consumer buying, as was changes in
family income.
More Famlies Discouraged
Prof. Katona explained there were proportionally fewer families
with rising incomes encouraging them to spend more, and at the
same time proportionally more families with declining profits were
therefore discouraged from buying. These figures, he reported, were1
based on SRC's last survey, and that more information would be
announced shortly.
The automobile industry can look forward to substantial gains,
Prof. Katona noted. The "cherished dream of becoming a two-car
family" may come true for many families, he said. Contributing to
this possibility is a lighter overall consumer debt, fewer families with
relatively new cars, and an improved attitude toward prices. There is
less tendency to feel that automobile costs are rising, Prof. Katona
said.
In another important consumer area, Willard D. Arant forecast
a "moderate" decrease in the cost of food because of an expected
decrease in farm prices. This, however, will be counteracted by the
rising cost of food processing and distribution.
Farm Abundance Predicted
"The agricultural outlook for 1959 is one of abundance," Arant
said. But whether abundance is profitable for farmers or not de-
pends on whether a particular commodity "is supported by the gov"
ernment, and the nature of that support. If a commodity is not sup-
ported, it depends on the elasticity of demand."
On the business front, the survey prognostication called for a
healthy increase in corporate profits. Predicted was a jump from
1958's $32.2 billion to an anticipated $39 billion in 1958.
Edmund A. Mennis, speaking as part of the morning's panel, pre-
dicted a 25 per cent corporate profits hike. particularly in those in*
dustries which bore the brunt of the original downtrend. Among these
Mennis lists automobiles, textiles, steel, chemicals, metals and ma-
chinery.
25
he
"A substantial gain in the automobile industry" weights Mennis
per cent figure. "If automobiles are excluded from the sample,'
explained. "the indicated gain is 18 per cent."
Mennis also agreed in essence with the survey's predictions for
the stock market. Consensus of the survey indicated a small gain in
the index of stock prices, from 48.96 to 50.21.
"An upward trend in common stock prices seems probable,"
Mennis said, "although not necessarily at the rate of the past five
months."
Other Gains Seen
In other predictions, the survey said the index of industrial
production would show a sharp increase, from 133 last year to 146
in 1959; the corporate bond yield would jump from 4:16 per cent to
4:40 per cent; average hourly earnings in manufacturing would rise
from $2.12 to $2.20: and gross private domestic investment would
rise from 52.0 to 58.5.
Panelist Avram Kisselgoff, however, disagreed with predictions
of increases in spending for plant and equipment, one of the com-
ponents of gross domestic investment. And he said he "wouldn't be
surprised to see housing (another part of this figure) start to de-
cline under the impact of higher interest rates.
On the other hand, Prof. John Lindner of Harvard's graduate
business administration school, predicted that private capital forma-
tion might reach $68 or $69 billion. He saw specific increases in
business inventories and private construction.
GAMBLING SITUATION
DISCUSSED
See Page 4
Lie 43aU
I~aitr
4
FAIR, WARMER
Sixty-Eight Years of Editorial Freedom
VOL, LxIX, No. 42
ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN, TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 1958
U.S.
OTES
TOD
LYe
DE
OCR
TS
FIVE CENTS
FAI
EIGHT PA
ORITE
Rockefeller Given
Edge in New York
Say Brown Favored over Knowland;
See Easy Leader,. Lawrence Wins
DY The Asaoclated, Press
The angry words of a bitter campaign faded last night and it was
left up to the voters: Will they gratify the sky high hopes of the
Democrats, or surprise the experts with a Republican triumph?
. In New York, a forecast of sunny skies and snow-free roads gave
the Republicans increased hope that Nelson A. Rockefeller, the poll-
sters' uneasy favorite, would oust Averell W. Harriman from New
York's gubernatorial cljir.
Four years ago, the Republicans said snow upstate was a major
factor in Harriman's slim victory,
California's Republican Gov. Goodwin Knight, who reluctantly
decided to run for the Senate when Sen. William Knowland chose to
*
*
*
*
Dem ocrats
* *
Pre dic t
*
*
*
*
*
*
Victory in
Stte
<+i
' Work Law'
Hot Issue
In Six States
WASHINGTON () - Opposing
sides in the red-hot right-to-work
fight carry the issue to voters in
six states today with neither side
too certain of the outcome.
Voters in California, Ohio, Kan-
sas, Colorado, Idaho and Washing-
ton will decide on adopting state
bans against employer-union con-
tract agreement that include the
union shop and other forms of
compulsory union membership.
William T. Harrison, executive
secretary of the National Right-
To-Work Committee, declined to
predict the outcome in any state
but said:
"I think we'll get our share of
them-the silent vote is going to
confuse a lot of folks."
Jack Redding, director of the
National Counc*l on Industrial
Peace, opposed the right-to-work
proposals, said he endorsed the
estimate of former Republican
Gov. Fred Hall of Kansas that the
issue is in doubt in Kansas but will
be defeated in the five other states.
"We'll stand or fall on whether
our people and the labor people get
out the vote," Redding said.
Eighteen states already have
right-to-work laws in effect. All
except Indiana are largely agri-
cultural states in the South and
WeSt.
Both advocates and opponents
of the right-to-work proposals up
in the six states said they expected
the closest voting in Ohio, Kansas
and Idaho.
Batista's Man
Leads in Cuba
HAVANA (T) - Former Premier'
Andres Rvern Aie'ron the Bastist.a
Utry for the governorship, has re-
fused to say that he will even vote
for Knowland.
Knowland is seen as an under-
dog to Democrat Edmund G. (Pat)
Brown.
In Pennsylvania, David L. Law-
rence, serving an unprecedented
fourth term as Pittsburgh's
mayor, Is the Democratic candi-
date for governor. He is opposed
by a Republican political novice,
Arthur G. McGonigle.
The state constitution forbids a
governor to succeed himself. But
Demeratic Gov. George M. Leader
is in the fight anyway. He is his
party's choice for the vacant Sen-
ate seat.
Leader is opposed by Rep. Hugh
Scott.
In Ohio, three questions stand
out:
Shall Republican Gov. C. Wil-
lam O'Neill be re-elected to a
four-year term or shall he be re-
placed by Democrat Michael V.
Disalle?
Shall GOP Sen. John W. Brick-
er be returned to a third six-year
term.
RENEWAL:
Objections
Received
By PHILIP MUNCK
City Council last night heard
more objection to the Urban Re-
newal plan in Ann Arbor.
Two letters, one from Paul Mc-
Coy and another from Mary
Brown, residents of the 75-acre
plot in north-central Ann Arbor,
protested the plan.
McCoy warned against the in-a
trusion of the federal government
into local areas as a long-range
result of the project.
He said that even the govern-
ment funds contributed by the
United States was not sufficient
reason to let federal influence ex-
tend into local affairs.
He also aecused the Council of
planning to rezone the Urban Re-
newal area residential without re-
gard for the feelings of businesses
in the district.
In other business, the Council
received a report from the Huron
River Watershed Intergovernmen-
tal Committee on the current
state of efforts to co-ordinate use
of the watershed area.
Wallace Bowman said the Com-
mittee plans to hear bids from
three engineering firms on the
possibility of conducting an ex-
tensive engineering study of
means of controlling the water
shed.
WASHINGTON (-) - The Air
Force is about ready to fire an-
other rocket at the moon.
Its chances of reaching the
moon's vicinity were described as
"something less than 1 in 25."
Hugh L. Dryden, Deputy Chief
of the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA),
Budget Cuts
U' Lectures
University audiences will hear
fewer guest lectures this year due
to the University's budget cut,
Erich A. Walter, assistant to the
president, said yesterday.
The University will concentrate
on maintaining the same quality
in Its lectures, which means that
quantity must suffer, he said.
Seventeen lectures have been
planned so far this year, slightly
behind the total scheduled at this
time last year.
The guest lecture budget was
reduced 10 per cent this year, in
line with general University cuts,
Walter said.
Guest lectures are usually schol-
ars from another school who are
invited by the University to speak
on their field. The lecturers re-
ceive a small fee from the Uni-
versity.
TO AIM FOR MOON:
Air Force Prepares To Fire Rocket
announced the shoot will be made
within a week or so.
Success-Level Cited
The lunar probe will be a suc-
cess if the instrumented nose of
the rocket completes its 240,000-
mile journey into space and goes
into orbit for two or three turns.
around the moon. But the space
scientists would be gratified if the
rocket apprached within 25,000 to
40,000 miles of the moon.
In putting the chances of
reaching the vicinity of the tar-
get at 25-1, Dryden cautioned
against any great optimism about
the shoot, the third in an Air,
Force 'series.
"If we are very fortunate, we
may achieve trajectory and velo-
city control suficient to position
the probe in the vicinity of the
moon," he said at a news con-
ference.
To Use Thor{
The moon ship will be an 88-
foot combination of Thor ballis-
tic missiles, the Navy's Vanguard
satellite launcher, and upper stage
rockets propelled by a powerful
solid fuel'
world ANews1
Williams, Bagwell Battle
In Governorship Race
Dispute State Industry, Labor Influence;
Potter-Hart Senatorial Race in Doubt
By BARTON HUTHWAITE
Michigan's political campaign drew to a close this morning w
the Democratic party optimistically predicting a sweep of all at
offices.
But Republican party leaders have promised an upset when t
final ballot count is in sometime early tomorrow morning.
Neil Staebler, Democratic state chairman, forecast a comforta
300,000-vote margin for Gov. G. Mennen Williams in the state's gub
natorial race.
Federal Air
Group Created
WASHINGTON M)-A new gov-
ernment unit with vast powers
over civil and military air traffic
-the Federal Aviation Agency--
came into being yesterday.
Its first action, by order of
President Dwight D. Eisenhower,
was to take over the airways mod-
ernization board and its 200 em-
ployes.
i
. - - ,. t .
JORDAN HALL SECOND:
Pi Phi's 'Tide' Comes In; Wins Lanter
ound 'Faces Vote-Getter
Battling the largest vote-getter in Michigan's history is the GC
gubernatorial hopeful Paul D. Bagwell, a Michigan State Univer
By The Associated Press professor turned politician, rated.
GENEV - Te Unied S as the underdog in the fight against Cl
GENEVA -- The United States labor-backed Gov. Williams,
and Russia introduced rival agen- The governor has centered his
as yestrhayrgeshthatree-residenft DwtD
nuclear conference, focusing their charges hat Presdent moight )onFor District
sharp differences of view on the Eisenhower and GOP policy-mak-
timetable for stopping nuclear ers are responsible for Michigan's
ts. economic woes. H ouse
Stresses Economy
TAIPEI-Red Chinese guns fell With an eye on the presidential
silent today after pounding Que- nomination in 1960, Gov. Williams
moy and the Tan islands yester- has blasted the Republican admin- Ten local contests are on
day with one of the heaviest istration and called an end the day's ballot in Washtenaw Co
bombardments of the Formosa "Eisenhower recession." ty, as local voters go to the pc
Strait war. The GOP candidate's chief tar- Partly cloudy skies and sligh
get is United Auto Workers Presi-warmer temperatures are fore.
WASHINGTON - The United dent Walter P. Reuther. Bagwell by the weatherbureau, with so
States, it was learned yesterday, has blamed the "Williams-Reu- rain anticipated later this ev
is prepared to share some of its ther" coalition for the state's sag- rain
radar secrets with Russia if pro- ging economy.
gress is made on an agreement to Probably the closest state con- Highlighting the election Is1
prevent surprise attack, test is the Sen. Charles E. Potter- contest for United States C
Lt. Gov. Philip A. Hart scramble. gress, with Republican incumi
Hart has pinned his hopes on GeorgeMeaderseeking re-elect
Gov. Williams' ability to convince against Democrat Robert G. H
Michigan that the recent economic The county will also fill
recession is the fault of the Eisen- three offices in the State Legi
'.3-I hower administration. ~ ture. The 33rd DIstrict (W.sl
Opposing Hart is 41-year-'old naw County) seat in the St
Sen. Potter. With 11 years on Con- Senate is being contested byI
gress behind him, Sen. Potter has publican incumbent Lewis
x called industry "primarily a state 'Christmnan and Democrat
problem." Calling for a "sound ap- Thomas Law.
proach to the problem" on the For the State House of Rep
state level, Sen. Potter believes sentatives, the First District (s
.: Gov, Williams should be held re- rounding Ann Arbor) will chb
sponsible for the present plight of between current Rep. George
recession-minded Michigan. Sallade, Republican, and Ann
Favors Federal Aid Hodesh on the Democratic s
Hart, in turn, is a strong believer In the Second District, (Ypsila
in Federal Government assistance and outlying areas) Democ
in solving the employment prob- Maurice Hoffman is trying tot
lems caused by automation in the seat Republican Rep. James
state's industrial centers. Warner.
In the lower and less outspoken The race for County Sheriffy
election campaigns, Secretary of Republican George A. Peter
A#~~~j~~~ State James M. Hare is matched agis'eora arneF
against a Republican unknown, tersdorf m
Raymond A. Plank.
Democratic State Treasurer San- In other county contests:
ford A. Brown will face Allan G. Prosecuting Attorney: Democ
Weatherwax in his quest for a Robert M. Gillespie opposesF
:
'
By MARY STATON
P1 Beta Phi, vocalizing on "Just As the Tide Was Flowing," was
chosen 1958 winner of the Lantern Night Sing at Hill Auditorium last
night,
Jordan Hall of Mosher-Jordan, now in Markley Hall, placed
second with a rendition of "My Shadow." Phi Mu won third place
with "Eternal Life." They were led by Arlene Grahl and Carolyn
Burkman, respectively.
This year's sing, breaking away from the traditional, was dedi-
cated to all new women students on campus and was moved to the
Fall semester schedule so that more houses would be able to partici-
pate.
Win Silver Cup
As in former years, a silver loving cup was presented to song
leader Karen Taylor by Women's Athletic Association president Norma
Clark. W.A.A. sponsors the yearly event, and the athletic department
in turn presents an inscribed cup to the sing winner.
The club also awards a posture cup and this years' winner was
Alpha Phi. Second place went to Gamma Phi Beta and Phi Mu took
third place honors.
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