4 | NOVEMBER 21 • 2024 J
N

analysis

Assessing Hezbollah’s Severely
Depleted Stockpile
I

srael’s military campaign against
Hezbollah over the past two months
has caused devastating losses to the
terror organization’s once-formidable
arsenal.
Waves of large-scale Israeli Air Force
strikes destroyed tens of thousands
of enemy projectiles,
alongside the elimination
of Hezbollah’s senior
military-terrorist
leadership and severe
harm caused to field-level
commanders.
Despite attempts to
conceal and protect its
weaponry, by entrenching it in civilian
village homes and under multi-story
apartment buildings in Beirut and
other cities, Hezbollah’s missile supply
has been heavily damaged. Questions
remain, however, about the exact
inventory Hezbollah retains and its
capacity to fire further strikes. The
Shi’ite group itself may not be fully
aware of what is left of its arsenal.
According to a statement made by
former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav
Gallant on Oct. 29, Hezbollah has
lost most of the rocket and missile
capabilities it possessed prior to joining
the war in support of Hamas.
“I estimate the remaining capacity
of the missiles and rockets to be on
the order of 20% [of the previous
arsenal], and also it is not organized
in the way that it used to be, in a way
that [Hezbollah] could fire [major]
volleys,
” Gallant said during a visit to
IDF Northern Command headquarters
in Safed.
Before the IDF’s extensive aerial and
ground strikes, some in the military
assessed that Hezbollah could fire
more than 10,000 projectiles per day
in the first week of the conflict, with
most of them targeting the north and
some central Israel. Now, Hezbollah
is managing to fire between 100 and

200 rockets daily on average aimed at
northern Israel, with sporadic attacks
reaching central regions.
As Israel’s targeted ground operations
continue in Southern Lebanon,
alongside dozens of daily airstrikes
throughout Lebanon, significant
Hezbollah weapons stockpiles and
infrastructure are still being uncovered
and dismantled.
On Nov. 9, the IDF announced that
troops of the IDF’s 769th “Hiram”
Territorial Brigade, operating under
the 91st “Galilee” Division, dismantled
approximately 300 terrorist facilities
and confiscated an array of weaponry,
including Kornet anti-tank missiles,
RPGs, combat equipment and
intelligence materials. In one notable
discovery, IDF troops located a mobile
missile system with 24 rockets ready to
launch against civilian communities in
the Galilee, concealed in a forested area
and attached to a civilian structure. The
IDF has secured the system and moved
it into Israel.

ALMA CENTER ESTIMATES
According to estimates by the Alma

Research and Education Center, which
specializes in threats from the northern
arenas, prior to September, Hezbollah
possessed 65,000 rockets with ranges
of up to 80 kilometers (50 miles),
5,000 rockets and missiles with ranges
of between 80 and 120 kilometers
(75 miles), 5,000 missiles with ranges
of between 200 (125 miles) and 700
kilometers (435 miles), and 2,500
unmanned aerial vehicles.
In addition, the Alma Center
estimated that Hezbollah possessed
some 150,000 mortar rounds, for a
total arsenal of some 225,000 explosive
charges (not including the UAVs).
The exact condition of Hezbollah’s
remaining arsenal is challenging to
verify.
On Nov. 10, Walla (an Israeli news
source) reported that IDF assessments
indicate that Hezbollah has lost about
80% of its rocket arsenal for ranges up
to 40 kilometers (25 miles).
The report also estimates that, at
the start of the conflict, Hezbollah
had approximately 5,000 medium-
range rockets, a number that has
now dropped to fewer than 1,000.

Additionally, its short-range rocket
stock has fallen from an estimated
44,000 to below 10,000.
IDF assessments, according to the
report, suggest Hezbollah’s supply of
precision-guided munitions, initially
numbered in the hundreds, is now
reduced to less than a hundred units,
including several coast-to-sea missiles.
Even amid these setbacks, Hezbollah
continues to display its capabilities
sporadically. On Nov. 8, the group
claimed to have fired “high-quality
rockets” targeting the Israeli Navy’s Stela
Maris base north of Haifa, as well as
other military sites.
While Israel intercepts most attacks,
such actions indicate Hezbollah’s
attempts to activate remaining offensive
capabilities and its willingness to settle
into a war of attrition, despite the
significant reduction of its stockpile.

SUSTAINED BY IRAN
Hezbollah’s arsenal is sustained
primarily through supply channels from
Iran, which include overland and aerial
routes via Syria. Resupply typically
flows through the Masnaa border
crossing between Syria and Lebanon,
according to the Alma Center, which
in the past enabled a steady stream of
rockets and precision components.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC) is responsible for
overseeing these logistics, using the
CERS (French acronym for Syrian
Scientific Studies and Research) facility
in Syria as a central hub. This center
not only produces weapons directly
for Hezbollah but also serves as a
key storage and distribution site for
Iranian-supplied arms in the region,
according to Alma. Some precision
weaponry reaching Hezbollah has been
manufactured in Iran, while other
components and precision systems are
transferred from CERS in Syria under
IRGC guidance.

Yaakov
Lappin
JNS.org

Hezbollah multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) units in Southern Lebanon prepare
to simulate an attack on Israel, May 21, 2023.

SOURCE: X

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