4 | NOVEMBER 21 • 2024 J
N

analysis

Assessing Hezbollah’s Severely 
Depleted Stockpile
I

srael’s military campaign against 
Hezbollah over the past two months 
has caused devastating losses to the 
terror organization’s once-formidable 
arsenal.
Waves of large-scale Israeli Air Force 
strikes destroyed tens of thousands 
of enemy projectiles, 
alongside the elimination 
of Hezbollah’s senior 
military-terrorist 
leadership and severe 
harm caused to field-level 
commanders.
Despite attempts to 
conceal and protect its 
weaponry, by entrenching it in civilian 
village homes and under multi-story 
apartment buildings in Beirut and 
other cities, Hezbollah’s missile supply 
has been heavily damaged. Questions 
remain, however, about the exact 
inventory Hezbollah retains and its 
capacity to fire further strikes. The 
Shi’ite group itself may not be fully 
aware of what is left of its arsenal.
According to a statement made by 
former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav 
Gallant on Oct. 29, Hezbollah has 
lost most of the rocket and missile 
capabilities it possessed prior to joining 
the war in support of Hamas.
“I estimate the remaining capacity 
of the missiles and rockets to be on 
the order of 20% [of the previous 
arsenal], and also it is not organized 
in the way that it used to be, in a way 
that [Hezbollah] could fire [major] 
volleys,
” Gallant said during a visit to 
IDF Northern Command headquarters 
in Safed.
Before the IDF’s extensive aerial and 
ground strikes, some in the military 
assessed that Hezbollah could fire 
more than 10,000 projectiles per day 
in the first week of the conflict, with 
most of them targeting the north and 
some central Israel. Now, Hezbollah 
is managing to fire between 100 and 

200 rockets daily on average aimed at 
northern Israel, with sporadic attacks 
reaching central regions.
As Israel’s targeted ground operations 
continue in Southern Lebanon, 
alongside dozens of daily airstrikes 
throughout Lebanon, significant 
Hezbollah weapons stockpiles and 
infrastructure are still being uncovered 
and dismantled.
On Nov. 9, the IDF announced that 
troops of the IDF’s 769th “Hiram” 
Territorial Brigade, operating under 
the 91st “Galilee” Division, dismantled 
approximately 300 terrorist facilities 
and confiscated an array of weaponry, 
including Kornet anti-tank missiles, 
RPGs, combat equipment and 
intelligence materials. In one notable 
discovery, IDF troops located a mobile 
missile system with 24 rockets ready to 
launch against civilian communities in 
the Galilee, concealed in a forested area 
and attached to a civilian structure. The 
IDF has secured the system and moved 
it into Israel.

ALMA CENTER ESTIMATES
According to estimates by the Alma 

Research and Education Center, which 
specializes in threats from the northern 
arenas, prior to September, Hezbollah 
possessed 65,000 rockets with ranges 
of up to 80 kilometers (50 miles), 
5,000 rockets and missiles with ranges 
of between 80 and 120 kilometers 
(75 miles), 5,000 missiles with ranges 
of between 200 (125 miles) and 700 
kilometers (435 miles), and 2,500 
unmanned aerial vehicles.
In addition, the Alma Center 
estimated that Hezbollah possessed 
some 150,000 mortar rounds, for a 
total arsenal of some 225,000 explosive 
charges (not including the UAVs).
The exact condition of Hezbollah’s 
remaining arsenal is challenging to 
verify.
On Nov. 10, Walla (an Israeli news 
source) reported that IDF assessments 
indicate that Hezbollah has lost about 
80% of its rocket arsenal for ranges up 
to 40 kilometers (25 miles).
The report also estimates that, at 
the start of the conflict, Hezbollah 
had approximately 5,000 medium-
range rockets, a number that has 
now dropped to fewer than 1,000. 

Additionally, its short-range rocket 
stock has fallen from an estimated 
44,000 to below 10,000.
IDF assessments, according to the 
report, suggest Hezbollah’s supply of 
precision-guided munitions, initially 
numbered in the hundreds, is now 
reduced to less than a hundred units, 
including several coast-to-sea missiles.
Even amid these setbacks, Hezbollah 
continues to display its capabilities 
sporadically. On Nov. 8, the group 
claimed to have fired “high-quality 
rockets” targeting the Israeli Navy’s Stela 
Maris base north of Haifa, as well as 
other military sites.
While Israel intercepts most attacks, 
such actions indicate Hezbollah’s 
attempts to activate remaining offensive 
capabilities and its willingness to settle 
into a war of attrition, despite the 
significant reduction of its stockpile.

SUSTAINED BY IRAN
Hezbollah’s arsenal is sustained 
primarily through supply channels from 
Iran, which include overland and aerial 
routes via Syria. Resupply typically 
flows through the Masnaa border 
crossing between Syria and Lebanon, 
according to the Alma Center, which 
in the past enabled a steady stream of 
rockets and precision components.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard 
Corps (IRGC) is responsible for 
overseeing these logistics, using the 
CERS (French acronym for Syrian 
Scientific Studies and Research) facility 
in Syria as a central hub. This center 
not only produces weapons directly 
for Hezbollah but also serves as a 
key storage and distribution site for 
Iranian-supplied arms in the region, 
according to Alma. Some precision 
weaponry reaching Hezbollah has been 
manufactured in Iran, while other 
components and precision systems are 
transferred from CERS in Syria under 
IRGC guidance.

Yaakov 
Lappin
JNS.org

Hezbollah multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) units in Southern Lebanon prepare 
to simulate an attack on Israel, May 21, 2023.

SOURCE: X

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