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Guest Column
Is Settled Science?
s anthropologically caused climate
Accurate modeling must also include,
change (ACC) settled science
in addition to CO2, the effects of
or not? About 40 years ago the
variation in solar radiation (the ulti-
mantra was global cooling. Then, as
mate energy source), water vapor
sampled temperatures began to rise,
(a greenhouse gas) and clouds. The
the mantra was global warming. When
ACC models either don't include them
measurements did not correlate with
or include some as a "fudge-factor"
that prediction, the mantra became
parameter.
"climate change."
What is a greenhouse gas? In simple
The prevailing opinion among the
terms, it is a gas that transmits vis-
general population, reinforced by
ible solar radiation to the Earth while
media and the public educational
absorbing longer wavelength heat
system, is that the climate is chang-
radiation from the Earth, thereby trap-
ing because mankind is dumping vast
ping and radiating that heat back to
amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) into
the surface (and some to space).
the atmosphere.
There are a number of such gases in
Much of the public
the atmosphere. The most
believes it because they are
important, in order of their
told that "97 percent of sci-
effect, are: water vapor (not
entists agree that climate
droplets, i.e. clouds), CO2,
change is real, man-made
methane, and nitrous oxide.
and dangerous." That state-
Water vapor is responsible
ment is a myth derived from
for 95 percent of the atmo-
flawed surveys and bad
sphere's greenhouse effect,
statistics. The "consensus"
and all the atmospheric
of 97 percent is based upon
CO2 for 3.62 percent. Man-
a few surveys and abstracts.
made CO2 composes only
Iry ing
The consensus figure has
about 3 percent of that per-
Gins berg,
been soundly refuted by
centage, meaning that man-
Ph .D.
more reliable surveys.
made CO2 accounts for
In a paper published in
only about 0.11 percent of
2009 in EOS, Transactions American
the greenhouse effect. All other man-
Geophysical Union, the now- familiar
made greenhouse gases combined
report of 97 percent consensus on
account for about 0.3 percent.
ACC was based upon a two-question
Clouds should play a critical role
survey of selected scientists. None
in any climate model because they
of those scientists included those
reflect visible solar radiation and radi-
most likely to be experts in the
ate infrared. Yet they are difficult to
natural causes of climate change,
model because small changes in the
namely, physicists, meteorologists,
atmosphere and ocean currents have
astronomers, solar scientists, etc.
large effect on global cloudiness and
Furthermore, the "97 percent" figure
thus on global climate. Predictions
represented only 79 out of a total of
from computer-generated climate-
the 3,948 who responded — hardly 97
change models should not be trusted
percent.
if key processes and phenomenology
In 2013, Bedford and Cook, using
such as this are incorrectly modeled
abstracts of peer-reviewed articles
or omitted.
from 1991 to 2011, again reported 97
In conclusion, ACC is, at best, dubi-
percent consensus on ACC. Later, in
ous science and may be junk science.
August of that year, Legates et al.
Why then do governments and
completely rebuked that finding in a
many politicians embrace ACC as a
paper in Science and Education.
looming global catastrophe? Perhaps
Enough on surveys and statistics.
because it is an excuse to implement
Changes in the Earth's tempera-
their agenda of governmental control
ture result from two things: change
of the economy and personal behavior
in either the amount of sunlight
through stringent, far-reaching regula-
absorbed by the Earth or in the
tions. Academia and many research
infrared energy it emits. Computer-
scientists support ACC because it is
generated models are used to make
a fertile ground for reaping research
predictions. For the results to have
funding.
any semblance of accuracy, a model
must accurately account for the
Irving Ginsberg o f Farmington Hills is retired
strong interaction between atmo-
as chief scientist for the Department of
sphere, ocean, topsoil and vegetation.
Energy Remote Sensing Laboratory in Las
The ACC-used models consider only
Vegas., He has taught at the University of
the atmosphere-ocean interaction.
Michigan, Lawrence Tech and Wayne State.
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