World

NEWS ANALYSIS

Palestinian Muddle

With support for Abbas, is Obama betting on the wrong horse?

Leslie Susser

Obama also has promised to invest $400
million in developing an improved Arrow
anti-missile system and, according to
Netanyahu aides, told the prime minister
in May that he would not press Israel
over the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
Israelis on the left and the right are
critical of the Obama approach.
They say the focus on settlements
could divert attention from actual peace-
making and, as Israel and the United
States tangle over bricks and mortar, the
peace process will suffer. They also argue
that Obama is making a huge blunder
in trying to construct an ambitious new
Middle Eastern peace edifice with a
Palestinian partner who cannot deliver,
due to Abbas' political weakness.

Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Jerusalem

A

s the United States presses for
progress in Israeli-Palestinian
peacemaking, President Obama
is redoubling Washington's efforts
to strengthen Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas.
The thinking is that with strong
American backing Abbas will be able to
carry the Palestinian street and deliver a
workable peace deal with Israel.
But some analysts question whether
Abbas has the clout to cut a deal that will
be accepted by most Palestinians. They
reckon Obama is betting on the wrong
horse.
In his meetings last month with Abbas
and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu, Obama made one overriding
demand: that Israel evacuate illegal West
Bank outposts and freeze all construction
in existing Jewish settlements. The move
is calculated to enhance America's stand-
ing in the Arab world, bolster Abbas'
flagging support on the Palestinian
street and prevent the growth of what
Washington considers obstacles to peace:
Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

New Attitude
Abbas left Washington gratified and
emboldened, saying he would not accept
any modifications to the 2002 Arab peace
initiative, which proposed trading peace
— for Israel's return to its pre-1967 bor-
ders and a deal on Palestinian refugees.
Earlier, Abbas said he would not meet
with Netanyahu until the Israeli leader
accepted the two-state solution and
agreed to freeze all settlement construc-
tion, per Obama's demand.
The new American approach has left
the Israeli side deeply concerned.
Israeli officials argue that the fate of
settlements should be decided in a final
peace deal and that, in the interim, nor-
mal life in those communities should
be allowed to continue — including
construction to accommodate natural
growth.
In the Israeli view, many of the settle-
ments will remain under Israeli control
in any peace deal.

Mahmoud Abbas has Obama's support ...
for now.

The Bush administration had support-
ed that position. Last month in London,
an Israeli delegation led by Cabinet min-
ister Dan Meridor reminded U.S. special
Middle East envoy George Mitchell of
the 2004 letter from President George W.
Bush that promised to help Israel retain
large settlement blocs.
The Israelis asked: What was the point
of freezing construction in communities
that by all accounts would remain on the
Israeli side of any future border?
They said they were surprised to dis-
cover that the new administration appar-
ently does not intend to honor the Bush
commitment.

Pressing Two States

Some pundits believe Obama may be
withholding that commitment as lever-
age to press Netanyahu into accepting the
two-state model for Israeli-Palestinian
peace.
Obama also hopes to encourage the
Jewish state to make concessions for
peace by bolstering Israel's sense of secu-
rity.
For more than two years, U.S.
General Keith Dayton has been training
Palestinian Authority forces in the West
Bank to keep the peace and fight ter-
rorism. The idea is to provide stability
to the West Bank and create a situation
in which Israel can feel confident about
withdrawing its forces from the area.

Factions At Odds
Part of the problem is that the
Palestinians have never been as disunited
as they are today.
It's not only a question of llamas in
Gaza and Fatah in the West Bank (six
people were killed in a gunfight between
Fatah forces and llamas late Saturday
night in the West Bank city of Kalkilya);
Fatah itself is deeply divided both
between veterans and the young guard,
and on key issues.
For example, Abbas heads a group that
advocates advancing Palestinian goals

by political means only; a second group
holds that there should also be non-vio-
lent civil struggle; a third group says the
possibility of resorting to armed struggle
or terrorism should be held in reserve.
Whereas Abbas is for the immedi-
ate establishment of a Palestinian state,
Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and a small
group of leading businessmen argue
that first there should be a long period
of institution-building to ensure that the
state is not established on a foundation
of corruption.
The upshot of all these divisions,
says Menachem Klein, an expert on
Palestinian affairs at Bar-Ilan University,
is that Abbas and the Fayyad govern-
ment have little support in Fatah or
in the Palestinian community. Only a
Fatah-llamas national unity government
with wide popular support can provide a
Palestinian partner that can deliver, Klein
says.
For the past several weeks, Fatah and
llamas have been negotiating a national
unity government in Cairo, with little
success.
Egypt has said it will give the parties
until July 7 to come to an agreement. If
they fail, it would mean more trouble
for Palestinian unity — and for hopes
for progress on the Israeli-Palestinian
front. ❑

Greenberg's View

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June 4 . 2009

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