World NEWS ANALYSIS Palestinian Muddle With support for Abbas, is Obama betting on the wrong horse? Leslie Susser Obama also has promised to invest $400 million in developing an improved Arrow anti-missile system and, according to Netanyahu aides, told the prime minister in May that he would not press Israel over the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Israelis on the left and the right are critical of the Obama approach. They say the focus on settlements could divert attention from actual peace- making and, as Israel and the United States tangle over bricks and mortar, the peace process will suffer. They also argue that Obama is making a huge blunder in trying to construct an ambitious new Middle Eastern peace edifice with a Palestinian partner who cannot deliver, due to Abbas' political weakness. Jewish Telegraphic Agency Jerusalem A s the United States presses for progress in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, President Obama is redoubling Washington's efforts to strengthen Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. The thinking is that with strong American backing Abbas will be able to carry the Palestinian street and deliver a workable peace deal with Israel. But some analysts question whether Abbas has the clout to cut a deal that will be accepted by most Palestinians. They reckon Obama is betting on the wrong horse. In his meetings last month with Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Obama made one overriding demand: that Israel evacuate illegal West Bank outposts and freeze all construction in existing Jewish settlements. The move is calculated to enhance America's stand- ing in the Arab world, bolster Abbas' flagging support on the Palestinian street and prevent the growth of what Washington considers obstacles to peace: Jewish settlements in the West Bank. New Attitude Abbas left Washington gratified and emboldened, saying he would not accept any modifications to the 2002 Arab peace initiative, which proposed trading peace — for Israel's return to its pre-1967 bor- ders and a deal on Palestinian refugees. Earlier, Abbas said he would not meet with Netanyahu until the Israeli leader accepted the two-state solution and agreed to freeze all settlement construc- tion, per Obama's demand. The new American approach has left the Israeli side deeply concerned. Israeli officials argue that the fate of settlements should be decided in a final peace deal and that, in the interim, nor- mal life in those communities should be allowed to continue — including construction to accommodate natural growth. In the Israeli view, many of the settle- ments will remain under Israeli control in any peace deal. Mahmoud Abbas has Obama's support ... for now. The Bush administration had support- ed that position. Last month in London, an Israeli delegation led by Cabinet min- ister Dan Meridor reminded U.S. special Middle East envoy George Mitchell of the 2004 letter from President George W. Bush that promised to help Israel retain large settlement blocs. The Israelis asked: What was the point of freezing construction in communities that by all accounts would remain on the Israeli side of any future border? They said they were surprised to dis- cover that the new administration appar- ently does not intend to honor the Bush commitment. Pressing Two States Some pundits believe Obama may be withholding that commitment as lever- age to press Netanyahu into accepting the two-state model for Israeli-Palestinian peace. Obama also hopes to encourage the Jewish state to make concessions for peace by bolstering Israel's sense of secu- rity. For more than two years, U.S. General Keith Dayton has been training Palestinian Authority forces in the West Bank to keep the peace and fight ter- rorism. The idea is to provide stability to the West Bank and create a situation in which Israel can feel confident about withdrawing its forces from the area. Factions At Odds Part of the problem is that the Palestinians have never been as disunited as they are today. It's not only a question of llamas in Gaza and Fatah in the West Bank (six people were killed in a gunfight between Fatah forces and llamas late Saturday night in the West Bank city of Kalkilya); Fatah itself is deeply divided both between veterans and the young guard, and on key issues. For example, Abbas heads a group that advocates advancing Palestinian goals by political means only; a second group holds that there should also be non-vio- lent civil struggle; a third group says the possibility of resorting to armed struggle or terrorism should be held in reserve. Whereas Abbas is for the immedi- ate establishment of a Palestinian state, Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and a small group of leading businessmen argue that first there should be a long period of institution-building to ensure that the state is not established on a foundation of corruption. The upshot of all these divisions, says Menachem Klein, an expert on Palestinian affairs at Bar-Ilan University, is that Abbas and the Fayyad govern- ment have little support in Fatah or in the Palestinian community. Only a Fatah-llamas national unity government with wide popular support can provide a Palestinian partner that can deliver, Klein says. For the past several weeks, Fatah and llamas have been negotiating a national unity government in Cairo, with little success. Egypt has said it will give the parties until July 7 to come to an agreement. If they fail, it would mean more trouble for Palestinian unity — and for hopes for progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front. ❑ Greenberg's View d4R4 2009 sfeve0greenPerg-artcom ISRAEL RESERVES -ME RJCAT TO KEEP 60(WINCr R4- 51PCN77AL. PR.OJECP5 IN -114E wes-r SANK — og, A5 1 PREFER To CALL VEM.. o'D New Israeli Settlement =-- June 4 . 2009 A29