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World
Dangerous from page 33
• Does the Hamas victory mean the
end of the movement toward independ-
ent Israeli and Palestinian states living
side-by-side? Not necessarily. By its very
participation in the election, Hamas has
been sucked into the two-state para-
digm: The Palestinian Parliament holds
sway in the West Bank and Gaza Strip
but not over all the territory — includ-
ing Israel — that Hamas claims as
"Palestine."
More importantly, the Hamas victory
likely will accelerate unilateral Israeli
moves to establish a clear border
between Israelis and Israeli settlements
on one side and Palestinians on the
other.
• Is Hamas uniformly radical, or are
there more moderate voices? The organi-
zation's formal position is that there can
be no talks with Israel until it withdraws
to its pre-1967 boundaries, divides
Jerusalem and takes in vast numbers of
Palestinian refugees, positions that are
unacceptable to Israel. Until then, Hamas
says, all contacts will be through third
parties.
Behind the scenes, however, some
Hamas leaders are intimating that there
could be direct negotiations before then.
On this score, and in general, Ismail
Haniya, Hamas' primary candidate for
prime minister, is thought to be more
pragmatic than the Gaza-based party
leader, Mahmoud al-Zahar.
• What are the likely regional conse-
quences? For Israel, one of the most dan-
gerous results would be a growth of
Iranian influence in the Palestinian
arena. Hawks like the Likud Party's Yuval
Steinitz, chairman of the Knesset's
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee,
see a tightening of an Iranian-controlled
terrorist belt around Israel, with the
Lebanese-based Hezbollah to the north
and Hamas and other Palestinian mili-
tants in the center and south.
A lot will depend on the choice Hamas
makes between Iran and the rest of the
international community.
• Will Hamas continue the cease-fire,
or tandia, that most Palestinian terrorist
groups declared in early 2005; or will
there soon be a fresh outbreak of terror-
ism? The Israeli intelligence assessment
is that Hamas will observe the cease-fire,
at least in the short term.
What happens next will depend on the
long-term strategy that Hamas, with all
the constraints of power, decides to
adopt. As for terrorist acts by other mili-
tants, such as Islamic Jihad, Hamas, with
its radical ideology, will be in no position
to condemn them.
Some Israelis are saying this will make
it easier for Israel to cope. There will be
34
February 2 2006
no more masks or double talk, analysts
say, such as when the Palestinian
Authority condemned terror to the out-
side world but did nothing to stop it.
With Hamas in power, they add,
Israelis are likely to be more united in
fighting terrorism and to get more inter-
national support for counter-terrorist
activities.
• What are Israel's options?
Government policy,is shaping up as the
following: no talks with Hamas, insis-
tence on the "road map" peace plan's
demands for a renunciation of terrorism
and disarming of militias, consideration
of further unilateral withdrawals, rapid
completion of the West Bank security
fence, targeting of the Islamic Jihad mili-
tia and carrot-and- stick use of Israel's
economic leverage.
The government's initial dilemma was
whether to leave open lines of communi-
cation to Hamas and transfer some $43
million in value-added tax collected by
Israel for the Palestinian Authority, or to
set clear conditions for dialogue and
transfers of funds.
After a Cabinet meeting on Sunday,
Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
announced that the government would
not hold peace talks with Hamas until it
recognized Israel, renounced terrorism
and accepted previous agreements
between Israel and the Palestinian
Authority. Israel also would refuse to
hand tax money to the Palestinians until
it was clear where the money was going,
he said.
Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi
Livni spoke to an array of world leaders
on the phone, urging them to withhold
funds and refuse to meet Hamas officials
unless the organization met Israel's min-
imum conditions. Visiting German
Chancellor Angela Merkel was one of the
first major world leaders to give . the
Israeli position her unqualified support.
E.U. foreign ministers meeting in
Brussels echoed her position.
In the United States, President Bush
and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
said the United States also will boycott
Hamas as long as it remains committed
to Israel's destruction.
• What impact is the rise of Hamas
likely to have on Israeli elections? All the
main parties are trying to make political
capital of the Hamas victory. But Likud
may find it difficult to dent Kadima's
lead in the polls. The governing party's
message — that Israel has the power to
shape a new reality that's best for it,
regardless of who holds power on the
Palestinian side — seems at least as
valid as when Fatah was in charge. ❑
Nothing But Questions
Harry Kirsbaum
Staff Writer
D
emocratic elections are sup-
posed to champion the cause of
freedom, not become a barrier
to peace.
The Jan. 25 Palestinian parliamentary
election of Hamas, a terrorist group that
won't recognize Israel's right to exist, has
left those with special knowledge of the
Middle East with
more questions
than answers.
Joel Tauber of
West Bloomfield, a
United Jewish
Communities .
board of trustees
member, said an
election was "our
government's
Doron Levin
objective."
"The Palestinian
people overwhelmingly elected Hamas
and the problem is llamas is not
equipped to rule," he said. "They don't
have an infrastructure; they don't have
the skill set to be administrators; they
don't have a budget in place.
"They'll probably run out of money
some time this week, so that they have
selected someone who is inadequate to
rule and the only policy that is clear
from Hamas is the destruction of Israel."
Nobody really knows what's going to
happen, he said, offering a wait-and-see
attitude. •
"There is the possibility that they will
be so mired in trying to set up a govern-
ment that it will be difficult for them to
launch terrorist attacks',' he said.
"Secondly, there's been some modera-
tion in their view because of the pres-
sure, and I hope the pressure stays up
from Russia, the European Union, the
United States and
other Arab coun-
tries to moderate
their views," said
Tauber, former
president of the
Jewish Federation
of Metropolitan
Detroit.
Unless there is a
Joel Tauber
wave of terrorism,
he said, the Israeli
election will not be aftected.
Jane Sherman of Franklin, a Jewish
Agency for Israel board of governors
executive committee member who chairs
the Israel Department, said she wasn't
surprised by the outcome.
"If you [Hamas] provided for my kids,
sent them to school, gave them all these
other things, who would you vote for?"
she said, calling the Palestinian
Authority corrupt. "I believe that most of
the Palestinians are not pro-suicide
bombers."
Sherman felt better about the election
results "because we know where we
stand."
She cited German Chancellor Angela
Merkel, who came out very strongly in
support of Israel.
"I would hope that the European Union
would stick by their guns',' she said.
Recognition of Israel by Hamas would
be the best news, she said. "I think [the
Palestinians] will feel that they really got
something going."
Doron Levin of Franklin, Bloomberg
News columnist, said he's happy the West
"has at least begun to make clear that
Hamas will not be taken seriously unless
it renounces its dedication to the
destruction of Israel and its policy of
violence toward
Israel.
"Some pollsters
have suggested that
the reason they
were elected was
not primarily for
that part of the
platform, but the
Palestinians were
Jane Sherman
generally disgust-
ed with Fatah," he
continued. "There was a feeling that
Hamas was better actually at delivering
services and less corrupt?'
Palestinianvoters did not consider a
lot of scenarios if Hamas took control, he
said, like "what would happen if they
were going to be represented by a gov-
ernment that the West wasn't going to
absolutely recognize or fund.
"You hear these stories of gunshots
and violence, so you wonder: Ccan the
Palestinians accept them?" asked Levin,
who was born in Israel.
This is an opportunity for Hamas to
take control and shape a Palestinian
state "that many Israelis are beginning to
accept," he said. "Unless they can
renounce violence and recognize the
State of Israel, I don't think they're going
to get off the ground?' ill