This Week
Cover Story/Undeterred
Long-Term Solutions
Unilateral approaches may give way to an internationally imposed peace.
LESLIE SUSSER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
Jerusalem
E
ven before the first Israeli tanks swept into
Ramallah at the start of Operation
Protective Wall, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
was being asked what he intended
to do the day after the tanks withdrew.
From day one, it was clear that the oper-
ation would not, in itself, put a stop to
Palestinian terror. No matter how badly the terrorist
infrastructure was hit, it would be only a matter of
time until the suicide bombers were back on Israel's
streets.
Unless, that is, there was some political solution to
the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
But how best to achieve it? During the past few
weeks, as more suicide bombings claimed more
Israeli lives, and the scale of Israeli retaliation inten-
sified, there has been a flurry of new ideas.
Some, despairing of any hope of a negotiated deal
between Israel and the Palestinians, advocate unilat-
eral measures or externally imposed solutions.
There are three basic approaches: incrementalism,
unilateralism and international intervention.
All three hold out some hope — and all three are
deeply flawed.
Both Sharon and the American administration
have been inclined to continue along the slow incre-
mental path from violence to cease-fire to graded
political re-engagement, outlined in the "Tenet-
Mitchell" framework, named for CIA Director
George Tenet and former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell.
The idea was to rebuild mutual confidence and
trust after the collapse of the attempts to resolve all
the issues in one fell swoop at Camp David in July
2000 and Taba in January 2001.
Badly burned by the failure of the permanent-sta-
tus exercise, the parties lowered their sights and
accepted the step-by-step approach.
There was to be a cease-fire followed by confi-
dence-building measures before talks on a political
settlement were renewed. Each side would address
the causes of the other side's mistrust.
The Palestinians would stop violence, collect ille-
gal weapons and end incitement against Israel; Israel
would freeze settlement building.
These steps would create a climate conducive for
political negotiations.
But it didn't work.
The trouble with Tenet-Mitchell was that it left
the endgame open.
Sharon was not prepared to spell out his vision of
final status until the Palestinians stopped the terror.
To do so, he argued, would be to reward violence
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4/12
2002
16
and encourage more violence.
The Palestinians, however, were not prepared to
stop the violence until they knew where the political
process was leading. To break the vicious circle, the
Americans offered their vision of final status — two
states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side.
But the plan was too vague for the Palestinians. It
said nothing about Jerusalem or refugees.
Moreover, as Palestinian terror escalat-
ed, and world opinion restricted Israeli
retaliation, Palestinian Authority leader
Yasser Arafat became convinced that violence was
paying off and saw no reason to stop it. Now, new
ideas to resuscitate the failing incrementalist
approach are being put forward.
ANALYSIS
Leslie Susser is the diplomatic correspondent for the
Jerusalem Report.
New Ideas
Ya'acov Peri, a former head of the Shin Bet, suggests a
carrot for the Palestinians — every month of quiet will
be rewarded with the evacuation of an Israeli settlement.
More realistically, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell
is trying to build a wide international coalition with the
Europeans and moderate Arab states to pressure the par-
ties to at least start the incrementalist process.
Operation Protective Wall, besides trying to smash
the Palestinian terrorist infrastructure, was also
ostensibly an attempt to pressure the Palestinians
into declaring a cease-fire and starting Tenet-
Mitchell.
But will a humiliated and discredited Arafat be in
any mood to declare a cease-fire? And if he does,
will his badly hit security services be able to main-
tain it? And why should he want to stop the terror,
after the wave of world sympathy, especially
European, the latest chapter of violence has gained
him? The assumption that Arafat will not call off the
violence and that there is no partner for dialogue on
the Palestinian side has led many Israelis on the left
and the right to propose unilateral solutions.
SOLUTIONS on page 22
Heavy Casualties
jenin ambush may harden Sharon's resolve.
NAOMI SEGAL
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
Jerusalem
D
espite U.S. pressure
and heavy losses, Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon
is vowing to press
ahead with Israel's ongoing military
operation in the West Bank.
For days, President Bush and
other U.S. officials have been call-
ing for an end to the operation.
Sharon gave a mixed response
to the U.S. pressure early Tuesday
morning, when he had the Israel
Defense Forces withdraw from
two West Bank cities, Tulkarm
and Kalkilya, but at the same
time ordered his troops into the
town of Dura, near Hebron.
Israeli and American observers
had speculated that he would
order a full-scale withdrawal
before U.S. Secretary of State
Colin Powell arrived in Israel.
But a deadly suicide bombing
Tuesday in Jenin — the West
Bank city that has witnessed the
fiercest fighting since Israel
launched Operation Protective
Wall on March 29. A bus bomb-
ing in Haifa Wednesday may only
harden Sharon's resolve to press
on with the fight.
Speaking after he had received
word that 13 Israeli reservists had
been killed in a Palestinian ambush
in Jenin's crowded refugee camp,
Sharon sounded a defiant tone.
"It was a difficult day," Sharon
said. "This battle is a battle for sur-
vival of the Jewish people, for sur-
vival of the State of Israel. We will
continue the operation until the
terrorist infrastructure is destroyed,"
Sharon said. "Then we can begin to
address the political process."
Clashes continued in Jenin on
Tuesday evening, when at least
another eight soldiers were wounded.
CASUALTIES on page 24
The 13 Israeli soldiers killed in Jenin on Tuesday, top row
vm left: Ayal Zimmerman, Ronen el-Shohat, Amit Busidan,
Menashe Haveh, Oded Golomb and Tiran Arazi; middle row
from left: Yoram Levi, Yaacov Azoulai, Yoel Alai, Shmuel
Danny-Mayzlish, Avner Jaskov and Dror Bar; bottom row:
Assaf Assouline.