This Week Cover Story/Undeterred Long-Term Solutions Unilateral approaches may give way to an internationally imposed peace. LESLIE SUSSER Jewish Telegraphic Agency Jerusalem E ven before the first Israeli tanks swept into Ramallah at the start of Operation Protective Wall, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was being asked what he intended to do the day after the tanks withdrew. From day one, it was clear that the oper- ation would not, in itself, put a stop to Palestinian terror. No matter how badly the terrorist infrastructure was hit, it would be only a matter of time until the suicide bombers were back on Israel's streets. Unless, that is, there was some political solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. But how best to achieve it? During the past few weeks, as more suicide bombings claimed more Israeli lives, and the scale of Israeli retaliation inten- sified, there has been a flurry of new ideas. Some, despairing of any hope of a negotiated deal between Israel and the Palestinians, advocate unilat- eral measures or externally imposed solutions. There are three basic approaches: incrementalism, unilateralism and international intervention. All three hold out some hope — and all three are deeply flawed. Both Sharon and the American administration have been inclined to continue along the slow incre- mental path from violence to cease-fire to graded political re-engagement, outlined in the "Tenet- Mitchell" framework, named for CIA Director George Tenet and former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell. The idea was to rebuild mutual confidence and trust after the collapse of the attempts to resolve all the issues in one fell swoop at Camp David in July 2000 and Taba in January 2001. Badly burned by the failure of the permanent-sta- tus exercise, the parties lowered their sights and accepted the step-by-step approach. There was to be a cease-fire followed by confi- dence-building measures before talks on a political settlement were renewed. Each side would address the causes of the other side's mistrust. The Palestinians would stop violence, collect ille- gal weapons and end incitement against Israel; Israel would freeze settlement building. These steps would create a climate conducive for political negotiations. But it didn't work. The trouble with Tenet-Mitchell was that it left the endgame open. Sharon was not prepared to spell out his vision of final status until the Palestinians stopped the terror. To do so, he argued, would be to reward violence eiN 4/12 2002 16 and encourage more violence. The Palestinians, however, were not prepared to stop the violence until they knew where the political process was leading. To break the vicious circle, the Americans offered their vision of final status — two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side. But the plan was too vague for the Palestinians. It said nothing about Jerusalem or refugees. Moreover, as Palestinian terror escalat- ed, and world opinion restricted Israeli retaliation, Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat became convinced that violence was paying off and saw no reason to stop it. Now, new ideas to resuscitate the failing incrementalist approach are being put forward. ANALYSIS Leslie Susser is the diplomatic correspondent for the Jerusalem Report. New Ideas Ya'acov Peri, a former head of the Shin Bet, suggests a carrot for the Palestinians — every month of quiet will be rewarded with the evacuation of an Israeli settlement. More realistically, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell is trying to build a wide international coalition with the Europeans and moderate Arab states to pressure the par- ties to at least start the incrementalist process. Operation Protective Wall, besides trying to smash the Palestinian terrorist infrastructure, was also ostensibly an attempt to pressure the Palestinians into declaring a cease-fire and starting Tenet- Mitchell. But will a humiliated and discredited Arafat be in any mood to declare a cease-fire? And if he does, will his badly hit security services be able to main- tain it? And why should he want to stop the terror, after the wave of world sympathy, especially European, the latest chapter of violence has gained him? The assumption that Arafat will not call off the violence and that there is no partner for dialogue on the Palestinian side has led many Israelis on the left and the right to propose unilateral solutions. SOLUTIONS on page 22 Heavy Casualties jenin ambush may harden Sharon's resolve. NAOMI SEGAL Jewish Telegraphic Agency Jerusalem D espite U.S. pressure and heavy losses, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is vowing to press ahead with Israel's ongoing military operation in the West Bank. For days, President Bush and other U.S. officials have been call- ing for an end to the operation. Sharon gave a mixed response to the U.S. pressure early Tuesday morning, when he had the Israel Defense Forces withdraw from two West Bank cities, Tulkarm and Kalkilya, but at the same time ordered his troops into the town of Dura, near Hebron. Israeli and American observers had speculated that he would order a full-scale withdrawal before U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell arrived in Israel. But a deadly suicide bombing Tuesday in Jenin — the West Bank city that has witnessed the fiercest fighting since Israel launched Operation Protective Wall on March 29. A bus bomb- ing in Haifa Wednesday may only harden Sharon's resolve to press on with the fight. Speaking after he had received word that 13 Israeli reservists had been killed in a Palestinian ambush in Jenin's crowded refugee camp, Sharon sounded a defiant tone. "It was a difficult day," Sharon said. "This battle is a battle for sur- vival of the Jewish people, for sur- vival of the State of Israel. We will continue the operation until the terrorist infrastructure is destroyed," Sharon said. "Then we can begin to address the political process." Clashes continued in Jenin on Tuesday evening, when at least another eight soldiers were wounded. CASUALTIES on page 24 The 13 Israeli soldiers killed in Jenin on Tuesday, top row vm left: Ayal Zimmerman, Ronen el-Shohat, Amit Busidan, Menashe Haveh, Oded Golomb and Tiran Arazi; middle row from left: Yoram Levi, Yaacov Azoulai, Yoel Alai, Shmuel Danny-Mayzlish, Avner Jaskov and Dror Bar; bottom row: Assaf Assouline.