SPECIAL COMMENTARY
"It's The Economy, Stupid" —Again
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laws already on the books; the Senate
will be the major stumbling block.
ill the religious right
If Bush does try to govern from the
dominate the Washing-
center, GOP moderates say, he will do
ton agenda as a Republi-
better with some of his core economic
can president, backed by
issues. But some of those issues could
a mostly GOP Congress, takes the
reins of government?
have much more immediate conse-
That scenario is on the minds of
quences for the Jewish community
many Jewish leaders who
than the nexus of social
worry that abortion, school
issues pushed by the Christ-
ian right.
prayer, vouchers and other
issues championed by Chris-
Bush's campaign platform
tian conservatives will be the
called for a $1.3 trillion tax
engine behind the 107th
cut, a demand Vice President-
Congress.
Elect Dick Cheney recently
Conservatives on Capitol
called nonnegotiable. Republi-
Hill, led by House Majority
can leaders on Capitol Hill are
Whip Tom DeLay, R-Texas,
divided; some support the
have reinforced their fears by
huge, 10-year cut, others want
JAMES D.
promising to press their par-
to press for a series of smaller
BESSER
tisan advantage to advance a
tax cuts.
Special
to
wide range of conservative
Lawmakers on both sides
the Jewish News
domestic issues.
of the aisle will be looking
Jewish leaders would do
for high-profile actions they
better to focus on Bill Clinton's mem-
can take that have a chance of biparti
orable 1992 campaign theme: "It's the
san support — and tax cuts, support-
economy, stupid."
ed by a significant number of Democ
For a variety of reasons, not the least
rats, could top the list. Most Jewish
of which is the bitter end to this year's
groups do not have official positions
on the issue. At the same time, many
presidential election, the top issues of
groups such as the Christian Coalition
Jewish leaders privately fear that any-
may not be front and center as the new
thing more than token curs could be a
Congress and administration try to find
time bomb tossed into the middle of
a way to govern amidst political grid-
the nation's social safety net.
lock on Capitol Hill.
Today, the federal treasury is flush,
thanks to the record economic boom
Instead, the administration is likely
to focus at first on the economic
and the run-up in the stock market.
changes it would like to implement —
But the surplus will evaporate with
changes that are likely to garner bipar-
astonishing speed if the economy skids.
tisan support, but which could prove
Tax cuts in the coming year, many
troublesome for Jewish organizations.
worry, will lead_to a ballooning of the
budget deficit when the economy
School prayer amendments will be
dead on arrival. School voucher plans
slows. And that, in turn, could pro-
may do better, thanks to support from
duce intense pressure to cut discre-
some Democrats. Several voucher
tionary spending programs.
demonstration projects were passed in
The programs most at risk are pre-
recent years but vetoed by President
cisely those that the Jewish community
Clinton; President-Elect George W.
successfully provides across the country,
Bush supports vouchers, so the veto
using government dollars along with
threat will disappear.
philanthropic money: health and hous-
Some abortion restrictions may
ing programs for the elderly, services for
children and teens, vocational services,
move through, but the evenly divided
Senate will remain a major obstacle to
services for immigrants. Big cuts could
any sweeping changes.
also jeopardize important foreign poli-
But the Bush administration can
cy priorities of the Jewish community,
wreak considerable havoc on abortion
starting with foreign aid to Israel.
rights through executive order. And
Bush's economic thinkers say the
the wild card remains the Supreme
cuts will spur the economy and pre-
Court; a vacancy or two during the
serve the boom. But it's a gamble; if
Bush administration would likely tip
they're wrong, the government will
the balance on the Court on abortion.
quickly face a new deficit crisis and
New gun control legislation is unlike-
ferocious new pressure to cut vulnera-
ble programs.
ly, but so is any major pullback from
That, and not the religious right
values" agenda, is where the real
James D. Besser is Washington corre-
action is likely to be for Jewish groups
spondent for the Detroit Jewish News.
in 2001. ❑
"
Evelyn Grodan
ResidentiallCommercial