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Much more ominous are the costs to
Israel of our failure to really deal with
the Iraq problem. Remember what this
latest episode was about: Saddam's
determination to conceal an expanding
arsenal of chemical and biological
weapons.
The crisis gave Saddam three weeks
to hide this stuff from U.N. inspectors,
who reportedly were getting close.
Bottom line: Israel faces an Iraq that
continues to develop a deadly non-con-
ventional arsenal, and an Arab world
that is less willing than ever to stand
with Washington against regional bad
guys.
* BILL CLINTON escaped the
need to engage U.S. troops in unilateral
action that could quickly escalate, and
he pleased European allies who increas-
ingly put hoped-for trade with Iraq and
Iran ahead of global good sense.
But Mr. Clinton also strengthened
the impression that he always prefers
quick gloss-overs in foreign policy to
complex, realistic action.
His decision to accept the Russian
compromise may damage U.S. clout in
the Mideast and weaken his hand in
efforts to limit proliferation in other
countries, including Iran.
Nor did Mr. Clinton bolster his
standing as the mediator-in-chief in
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations by letting
Saddam return unpunished to an unac-
ceptable status quo.
And Mr. Clinton, who wants Vice
President Al Gore to replace him in
2001, handed his trusty sidekick a tick-
ing time bomb.
* SADDAM HUSSEIN got most of
what he wanted: a few weeks without
U.N. snooping, a nudge toward easing
of economic sanctions and a change in
U.S. policy linking the end of sanctions
to his removal. As a bonus, he widened
fractures in the U.S.-led Gulf coalition.
It wasn't a complete victory, but he
picked up a handful of get-out-of-jail-
free cards that will be useful the next
time he picks a fight with the civilized
world. And he received a modest boost
toward his goal of an arsenal that will
let him play with the big boys on the
world game board.
* RUSSIA came out a winner, and
that's bad news for Israel and the
United States.
President Boris Yeltsin and Foreign
Minister Yevgeny Primakov want two
things: a growing role in Mideast nego-
tiations and a chance to trade with Iran
and Iraq without Washington breathing
down their necks.
Already, there are indications the
Russians will press for a relaxation of
c-)
sanctions, and when that happens,
Russian wheelers and dealers will be on
the first shuttle to Baghdad.
Washington and Jerusalem distrust
Mr. Primakov, an Arabist who they see
as a chronic spoiler in the region. Last
week's compromise will make it harder
to keep him on the Mideast sidelines.
* FRANCE has consistently resisted
sanctions, and it was a major impedi-
ment to strong U.S. led efforts after tic)
U.N. inspectors were kicked out of
Iraq.
-
A quick
gloss-over
in foreign policy.-
The government in Paris will contin-
ue to do what it has always done: look
out for the narrowest French interests,
and resist on principle every U.S. initia-
tive.
Sure, their rogue-nation friends will
soon acquire missiles that could hit
European capitals, as well as Tel Aviv.
But at least those missiles will have
components from French factories.
Trade is trade, after all.
* SAUDI ARABIA and KUWAIT
both want to have their cake and eat it,
too. They want U.S. protection against
aggressive neighbors, but they don't
want to be seen walking down the street
with us.
They're short-term winners because,
this time around, they got away with it,
but they're likely to lose big time in the
future because they still have an
emboldened Saddam Hussein just
around the corner.
And it's hard to imagine how a
reduction in U.S. influence in the
region — and gains for Russia, as well
as Iraq — could be good for the stab-
ty the shaky Saudi royal family needs.
* REPUBLICAN LEADERS IN
CONGRESS: Just before the winter
adjournment, they cut funding to pay
the big U.S. arrears at the United
Nations because of a squabble over
abortion. They did this just as
Washington was trying to mobilize
U.N. support for tough measures
against* Saddam.
0
Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss., and House
Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., the
GOP congressional leaders, both want
to be president. In this test of their for-
eign policy skills, neither came off look-
ing like a statesman. ❑