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February 23, 1996 - Image 56

Resource type:
Text
Publication:
The Detroit Jewish News, 1996-02-23

Disclaimer: Computer generated plain text may have errors. Read more about this.

i'4611111111111.111110011101N110111811101111.11111110,- • ii.0811MINIONIIII. ►

P.>1

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Forget Conventional
Wisdom This Year

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I Find It All In
The Jewish News
Classifieds
I Call 354-5959

olitical pundits are not in
the business of admitting
their ignorance. But in
1996, a surly electorate
keeps upending the journalistic
conventional wisdom; columnists
who claim advance knowledge of
how voters will behave in far-off
November are only one step re-
moved from those hucksters who
promise you can lose weight with-
out giving up potato chips.
With that in mind, here are
several cautionary notes about
the grand spectacle unfolding in
front of us in what could be the
most volatile political year in re-
cent memory.
1. Don't write off Pat
Buchanan as a "fringe" candi-
date.
Have you noticed that every
time Pat wins a caucus or does
better than expected in a poll,
Jewish leaders offer the same
thinly reassuring litany? "He
can't win and he can't get the
nomination," they soothe —
which sounds increasingly like
whistling past the dark cemetery.
While every GOP contender
tries to portray himself as a con-
servative, anti-government out-
sider, there is only one candidate
directly tapping the deep anger
and fear gripping much of the
electorate: Pat Buchanan.
Bob Dole and the other GOP
contenders offer traditional Re-
publican solutions to the nation's
woes: cut regulation, reduce gov-
ernment, slash taxes and let busi-
ness be business, the same
formula that produced such won-
derful results under Calvin
Coolidge in the 1920s.
Bill Clinton, increasingly, is
trying to act like a traditional Re-
publican, but with vestiges of the
New Deal — a hybrid political
theology that may miss the mark
with stressed-out Americans who
have seen their jobs and economic
futures downsized, despite reas-
suring government economic sta-
tistics that seem to come straight
out of Fantasyland.
Mr. Buchanan is running
against both government and big
business, against the foreign cor-
porations that are beating the
pants off their American com-
petitors.
Like the populists of old, his
scapegoating of immigrants is
tied to deep fears about foreign-
ers taking away jobs in a time of
economic uncertainty.
Mr. Buchanan's "cultural rev-
olution" agenda is what garners
the headlines, and it represents
one important pillar of his sup-
port. But it's his old-fashioned
economic populism that has en-

p

abled him to confound the polit-
ical analysts at every turn.
When Malcolm "Steve" Forbes
flames out — which will happen
when folks begin to realize that
he's peddling a fairly ordinary Re-
publican big-business theology
— the conventional wisdom says
that a GOP centrist like former
Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexan-
der will pick up the pieces. But
there's another possible scenario:
Mr. Buchanan, who is running a
smart, sophisticated campaign
this time around, could pick up
the portion of the Forbes con-
stituency that flocked to the mil-
lionaire because they briefly saw
HIM as the genuine )utsider.
Consider Mr. Buchanan a
fringe player at your own risk.
And a corollary: forget old la-
bels like liberal and conservative,
or even Republican and Democ-
rat. Pat Buchanan is so far to the
right he's almost on the left; Pres-
ident Clinton, a "liberal," is more
conservative than Richard Nixon
on a host of issues. One of these
days, the politicians will catch on
to the fact that the public no
longer responds reflexively to
these terms.
But Mr. Buchanan knows.
2. Don't forget Congress.
The presidential contest is
great drama, but the most im-
portant action this year may be
in House and Senate contests.
Once again, there are a record
number of open seats; incum-
bents of both parties, frustrated
by the increasing nastiness of
what passes for political dialogue,
are dropping out in droves.
Polls show that American vot-
ers blame the Republicans for the
budget stalemate. But Democra-
tic incumbents are unlikely to
reap the rewards; once again, vot-
ers may turn to conservative,
anti-government outsiders.
So November could see a
movement toward candidates
who are even further outside the
political mainstream than the
freshmen of the 104th Congress.
That could boost the effort to
slash government programs in
wholesale lots, including pro-
grams that serve many thou-
sands of Jews.
And it could accelerate the eco-
nomic polarization of the nation,
a prescription for social instabil-
ity.
The arrival of so many new
legislators who are interested
only in their highly parochial do-
mestic agendas will also pose a
huge new challenge to pro-Israel
lobbyists.
3. Don't bet the house on Pres-
ident Bill Clinton's reelection.

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