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'Til 3 _ Forget Conventional Wisdom This Year • (810) 546•RUGS • (810) 646•RUGS • (313) 973•RUGS I Find It All In The Jewish News Classifieds I Call 354-5959 olitical pundits are not in the business of admitting their ignorance. But in 1996, a surly electorate keeps upending the journalistic conventional wisdom; columnists who claim advance knowledge of how voters will behave in far-off November are only one step re- moved from those hucksters who promise you can lose weight with- out giving up potato chips. With that in mind, here are several cautionary notes about the grand spectacle unfolding in front of us in what could be the most volatile political year in re- cent memory. 1. Don't write off Pat Buchanan as a "fringe" candi- date. Have you noticed that every time Pat wins a caucus or does better than expected in a poll, Jewish leaders offer the same thinly reassuring litany? "He can't win and he can't get the nomination," they soothe — which sounds increasingly like whistling past the dark cemetery. While every GOP contender tries to portray himself as a con- servative, anti-government out- sider, there is only one candidate directly tapping the deep anger and fear gripping much of the electorate: Pat Buchanan. Bob Dole and the other GOP contenders offer traditional Re- publican solutions to the nation's woes: cut regulation, reduce gov- ernment, slash taxes and let busi- ness be business, the same formula that produced such won- derful results under Calvin Coolidge in the 1920s. Bill Clinton, increasingly, is trying to act like a traditional Re- publican, but with vestiges of the New Deal — a hybrid political theology that may miss the mark with stressed-out Americans who have seen their jobs and economic futures downsized, despite reas- suring government economic sta- tistics that seem to come straight out of Fantasyland. Mr. Buchanan is running against both government and big business, against the foreign cor- porations that are beating the pants off their American com- petitors. Like the populists of old, his scapegoating of immigrants is tied to deep fears about foreign- ers taking away jobs in a time of economic uncertainty. Mr. Buchanan's "cultural rev- olution" agenda is what garners the headlines, and it represents one important pillar of his sup- port. But it's his old-fashioned economic populism that has en- p abled him to confound the polit- ical analysts at every turn. When Malcolm "Steve" Forbes flames out — which will happen when folks begin to realize that he's peddling a fairly ordinary Re- publican big-business theology — the conventional wisdom says that a GOP centrist like former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexan- der will pick up the pieces. But there's another possible scenario: Mr. Buchanan, who is running a smart, sophisticated campaign this time around, could pick up the portion of the Forbes con- stituency that flocked to the mil- lionaire because they briefly saw HIM as the genuine )utsider. Consider Mr. Buchanan a fringe player at your own risk. And a corollary: forget old la- bels like liberal and conservative, or even Republican and Democ- rat. Pat Buchanan is so far to the right he's almost on the left; Pres- ident Clinton, a "liberal," is more conservative than Richard Nixon on a host of issues. One of these days, the politicians will catch on to the fact that the public no longer responds reflexively to these terms. But Mr. Buchanan knows. 2. Don't forget Congress. The presidential contest is great drama, but the most im- portant action this year may be in House and Senate contests. Once again, there are a record number of open seats; incum- bents of both parties, frustrated by the increasing nastiness of what passes for political dialogue, are dropping out in droves. Polls show that American vot- ers blame the Republicans for the budget stalemate. But Democra- tic incumbents are unlikely to reap the rewards; once again, vot- ers may turn to conservative, anti-government outsiders. So November could see a movement toward candidates who are even further outside the political mainstream than the freshmen of the 104th Congress. That could boost the effort to slash government programs in wholesale lots, including pro- grams that serve many thou- sands of Jews. And it could accelerate the eco- nomic polarization of the nation, a prescription for social instabil- ity. The arrival of so many new legislators who are interested only in their highly parochial do- mestic agendas will also pose a huge new challenge to pro-Israel lobbyists. 3. Don't bet the house on Pres- ident Bill Clinton's reelection.