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Advertising in The Jewish News Gets Results
Place Your Ad Today. Call 354.6060
Political Tangle
Affects All Players
JAMES D. BESSER WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT
p
olitics and diplomacy are
more closely related than
statesmen ever admit, or
than politicians under-
stand.
Political factors inevitably af-
fect the content and tone of for-
eign policy. And developments in
the international arena, in turn,
have myriad consequences for do-
mestic politics.
In the Syrian-Israeli peace
talks, the political needs of all
three participants — Israel, Syr-
ia, and the United States — are
unfolding in ways that offer some
tantalizing possibilities for a gen-
uine breakthrough — and some
very real dangers.
Israel, not surprisingly, has the
most to gain and the most to lose.
Syrian President Hafez Assad
doesn't worry about politics in the
same way that American and Is-
raeli leaders do. After all, he
doesn't face elections or worry
about polls; public opinion in
Syria is still shaped by the point
of a gun.
But Mr. Assad has a list of
things that he wants from these
negotiations, including some tan-
gible signs of friendship from the
United States, and he has a grow-
ing awareness that political fac-
tors are complicating his effort to
win them without giving up too
much to Israel.
Until the assassination of for-
mer Prime Minister Yitzhak Ra-
bin, the Syrian leader believed
that all the talk about political
opposition in Israel to the peace
process was just posturing. One
Israeli leader, he assumed, was
much the same as any other; the
differences between Likud and
Labor were just a negotiating
gambit.
The assassination, according
to American officials; convinced
him that the opposition in Israel
is strong, and that it could slam
the door shut on negotiations af-
ter the elections later this year.
That point was hammered
home over the weekend, when
Labor Party officials suggested
early elections if no progress is
made on the Syrian-Israeli front,
an obvious attempt to crank up
the political pressure on Mr. As-
sad.
And Mr. Assad, despite his
personal lack of experience with
democratic politics; must be
watching the upcoming cam-
paigns in this country with am-
bivalence.
Bill Clinton is a cheerleader for
Israel. Does Mr. Assad think he
would do better with Sen. Bob
Dole, R-Kans., whose record sug-
gests that he would be inclined
to squeeze Israel if the occasion
arose?
On the other hand, if he stalls
with the hope that Mr. Dole will
take over U.S. diplomacy next
January, he could make it hard-
er for Shimon Peres to win the Is-
raeli election; it's unlikely that
Mr. Assad still believes he could
cut a better deal with Bibi Ne-
tanyahu.
So for Mr. Assad, the politics
of the peace talks are pulling him
in different directions. Given his
slow-moving, cautious nature,
that does not suggest the strong
likelihood of an immediate break-
through.
But it also suggests that he
will allow the talks to gather
some momentum in coming
weeks.
In Israel, Prime Minister Shi-
mon Peres confounded the ex-
perts who expected the veteran
politician to put the Syrian talks
on hold, and concentrate instead
on consolidating his political
position and bolstering the Israel-
Palestinian self-rule agree-
ment.
But Mr. Peres, the visionary
behind the peace process, seems
convinced that a Syrian-Israeli
breakthrough is not only possi-
ble but the essential linchpin of
the comprehensive, regional
peace that he sees as the key to
Israel's long-term security.
By putting the Syrian talks on
the fast track, Mr. Peres has giv-
en his political opponents new op-
portunities; if the talks continue,
he may, in effect, turn this year's
election into a referendum on the
Golan Heights, a kind of ultimate
political gamble.
Mr. Peres may be convinced
that time is working against him
and his vision of a Syrian deal;
only by striking fast, before the
opposition has a chance to build,
can he put a deal over to Israeli
voters.
But there are those in Israel,
including many strong peace
process supporters, who worry
that Mr. Peres, for political rea-
sons and out of genuine convic-
tion, is moving too fast.
Political haste, in this case,
could produce the kind of peace
treaty that Israeli voters are un-
likely to endorse.
And in Washington, the polit-
ical factors are multiplying rapid-
ly.
President Clinton's recent lead
in the polls has slipped in the face
of the government funding crisis,
with experts predict_ng a roller
coaster ride in the months ahead.
The Whitewater mess remains a
ticking political time bomb.