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Political factors inevitably af- fect the content and tone of for- eign policy. And developments in the international arena, in turn, have myriad consequences for do- mestic politics. In the Syrian-Israeli peace talks, the political needs of all three participants — Israel, Syr- ia, and the United States — are unfolding in ways that offer some tantalizing possibilities for a gen- uine breakthrough — and some very real dangers. Israel, not surprisingly, has the most to gain and the most to lose. Syrian President Hafez Assad doesn't worry about politics in the same way that American and Is- raeli leaders do. After all, he doesn't face elections or worry about polls; public opinion in Syria is still shaped by the point of a gun. But Mr. Assad has a list of things that he wants from these negotiations, including some tan- gible signs of friendship from the United States, and he has a grow- ing awareness that political fac- tors are complicating his effort to win them without giving up too much to Israel. Until the assassination of for- mer Prime Minister Yitzhak Ra- bin, the Syrian leader believed that all the talk about political opposition in Israel to the peace process was just posturing. One Israeli leader, he assumed, was much the same as any other; the differences between Likud and Labor were just a negotiating gambit. The assassination, according to American officials; convinced him that the opposition in Israel is strong, and that it could slam the door shut on negotiations af- ter the elections later this year. That point was hammered home over the weekend, when Labor Party officials suggested early elections if no progress is made on the Syrian-Israeli front, an obvious attempt to crank up the political pressure on Mr. As- sad. And Mr. Assad, despite his personal lack of experience with democratic politics; must be watching the upcoming cam- paigns in this country with am- bivalence. Bill Clinton is a cheerleader for Israel. Does Mr. Assad think he would do better with Sen. Bob Dole, R-Kans., whose record sug- gests that he would be inclined to squeeze Israel if the occasion arose? On the other hand, if he stalls with the hope that Mr. Dole will take over U.S. diplomacy next January, he could make it hard- er for Shimon Peres to win the Is- raeli election; it's unlikely that Mr. Assad still believes he could cut a better deal with Bibi Ne- tanyahu. So for Mr. Assad, the politics of the peace talks are pulling him in different directions. Given his slow-moving, cautious nature, that does not suggest the strong likelihood of an immediate break- through. But it also suggests that he will allow the talks to gather some momentum in coming weeks. In Israel, Prime Minister Shi- mon Peres confounded the ex- perts who expected the veteran politician to put the Syrian talks on hold, and concentrate instead on consolidating his political position and bolstering the Israel- Palestinian self-rule agree- ment. But Mr. Peres, the visionary behind the peace process, seems convinced that a Syrian-Israeli breakthrough is not only possi- ble but the essential linchpin of the comprehensive, regional peace that he sees as the key to Israel's long-term security. By putting the Syrian talks on the fast track, Mr. Peres has giv- en his political opponents new op- portunities; if the talks continue, he may, in effect, turn this year's election into a referendum on the Golan Heights, a kind of ultimate political gamble. Mr. Peres may be convinced that time is working against him and his vision of a Syrian deal; only by striking fast, before the opposition has a chance to build, can he put a deal over to Israeli voters. But there are those in Israel, including many strong peace process supporters, who worry that Mr. Peres, for political rea- sons and out of genuine convic- tion, is moving too fast. Political haste, in this case, could produce the kind of peace treaty that Israeli voters are un- likely to endorse. And in Washington, the polit- ical factors are multiplying rapid- ly. President Clinton's recent lead in the polls has slipped in the face of the government funding crisis, with experts predict_ng a roller coaster ride in the months ahead. The Whitewater mess remains a ticking political time bomb.