■ a
Celebrating their tenth anniversary, the editors of
Style have asked me to address an important ques-
tion: "Where will people shop in the next century?"
Unless affordable, Star Trek-style atom transporters
become available, customers in the 21st century will
be shopping for fashion apparel and home furnish-
ings where they've shopped for centuries: shop-
ping centers.
After all, the marketplace is a remarkably resilient
societal institution, and the enclosed regional mall
is hardly a 20th-century invention. Twelve Oaks,
Lakeside and Fairlane are actually the contempo-
rary equivalents of the 19th-century arcade — a
building type and retailing system with direct his-
toric reference stretching back to medieval bazaars.
Since English architect John Haviland built the
A. ALFRED TAUBMAN
Founder and Chairman of The Taubman Company
Philadelphia arcade in 1928, the American mall has
been evolving, continuously adapting to society's
changing tastes, needs and technologies.
In the coming decades you'll certainly be able to experience and accomplish a lot through interactive mul-
timedia in your home, but customers will always want to touch, smell and try on the merchandise they buy.
The dramatic advances of our increasingly digital, electronic world are certain to improve design, manufac-
turing, marketing, management and customer service, enhancing the efficiency and appeal of in-store retail-
ing. And don't discount the social and entertainment value of shopping!
But what about the dramatic predictions of a home shopping revolution? Last year a Wall Street Journal
headline proclaimed, "TV Shopping Losing Its Shine for Retailers." The story quoted a McKinsey study which
found that the percentage of home-shopping viewers had actually declined to about 12 percent of cable house-
holds, down from 16 percent in 1991.
Consider the fact that today retailing is a $400 billion industry, and only about half of 1 percent of sales is
captured by electronic home shopping outlets. By the year 2000, no serious observer predicts more than
1 percent of the retailing pie for electronic formats.
I don't know how sales of cubic zirconium are going, but for the fashion retailers who have experimented
with home TV and computer shopping, the return rate for fashion apparel has been over 60 percent. That's in
comparison to between only 6 and 8 percent for traditional department-store apparel purchases.
So by the year 2035, you'll be able to read Style in the comfort of your home on a paper-thin, high-resolu-
tion display tablet, and drive your battery operated recyclable car out to Twelve Oaks to select that dress or
suit with the perfect fit and color for Style's 50th anniversary gala. I just hope I'll be around to enjoy the evening
with you!
STYLE • WINTER 1995 •
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