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page 53
Now used in the research and de- who puts $10,000 into a single
velopment departments of lead- stock and just leaves it there
ing companies worldwide — (though he knows other funds
including DuPont and AT&T — are doing better) to the U.S. gov-
it focuses on how to make deci- ernment, which Professor Chelst
sions in the face of uncertainty. says is one of the worst culprits
The first step is making a de- of poor planning and manage-
cision tree, listing all the possi- ment.
As soon as the government
bilities and considerations.
It may sound simple, but most puts money into a program it just
leading oil and drug companies keeps pouring it in no matter how
begin their research this way. It's terrible the waste, he says. "The
a solid start for businesses whose idea is, 'We've sunk $1 billion in,
initial work can be so tenuous — how can we quit now?' Who cares
how do you begin to know where that it's already 40 times over the
to drill for oil? The best way to do original budget?"
Like other teachers in the
the search? How much to bid on
oil rights? — and for which a sin- WSU-Ford program, Professor
gle decision will be so far-reach- Chelst stresses teamwork. "You
ing. "One or two hit drugs can can't design a car as an individ-
make or break a company," Pro- ual," he says.
But isn't that a concept at odds
fessor Chelst explains.
A Ford engineer's decision tree with much of the academic world,
might begin something like this. where students are pressed not
Imagine he wants to increase only to do their best but outdo
a car's doors from four to six. each other? "Everything we do
Questions he might have to con- undermines the concept of team-
work," Professor Chelst agrees.
sider:
But in this case there are no
How
long
it
will
take
to
de-
#1)
individual grades. 'The team gets
velop such a project.
#2) How long it would take to the grade," he says. "And unless
the team gets the job done, it
design a six-door car.
doesn't get done."
How
much
it
would
cost.
#3)
#4) How many more cars it
might sell.
Knowing all the options isn't
as easy at it seems, because most
people are accustomed to consid-
ering only the obvious. Professor
Chelst illustrates with this ex-
ample.
Imagine a Disease X which
strikes about 1 in 10,000 Amer-
icans. Linda is pregnant and goes
in for a test to determine whether
her child could be carrying Dis-
About 10 of the projects stu-
ease X. The test is 99 percent pos-
dents worked on in classes al-
itive.
Linda's results come back pos- ready have been implemented at
Ford, including one which rec-
itive.
It's likely Linda will opt for an ommended minor modifications
abortion. But does a positive test at a certain testing facility. As a
result necessarily mean her child result of the changes, the same
facility can now accommodate a
has Disease X?
Remember that the test is 99 40 percent increase in the num-
percent positive. In this case, with ber of tests.
So the program will pay for it-
10,000 people taking the test, an
incorrect result will show up 100 self, while Ford pays for the en-
times. So it's possible Linda's gineers to learn. While the
child could be one of those 100 participants take classes in the
afternoon during regular work
who had a false positive.
How to balance all those odds hours, they do all course work on
— making difficult decisions in their own time, says Ford's
the face of uncertainties — is Richard Schneider, who togeth-
what Professor Chelst teaches his er with colleagues Russ Smith
students. It's a system of trade- and Dennis Nagle will continue
offs, of "risk versus potential," to play a key role in overseeing
with the result an approach Pro- the program.
Meanwhile, Mr. Schneider's
fessor Chelst labels "structured"
next
project might well be plan-
thinking.
This comprehensive approach ning — after considering all the
to decision-making does require repercussions and possibilities
a new way of looking at the and thoroughly balancing the
world. Professor Chelst calls the trade-offs, naturally — how to get
whole methodology "almost a the computers away from stu-
language itself." It requires over- dents.
To help during the course of
coming the tendency to "go with
study,
each engineer in the pro-
the gut" before thoroughly re-
searching a topic. It also means gram received an IBM laptop, c,
learning how to counter the in- courtesy of Ford.
"The big test will be when it's
ertia that invariably seems to ac-
give-back
time," Mr. Schneider
company American investment
— from the typical individual says. El
The question
was how to
help employees
improve both their
business and
professional skills.