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more from our Israeli
friends."
Pro-Israel activists are
also likely to focus a little
more on "worst-case"
scenarios in future battle
with the administration.
"We might have done
some more thinking through
about what we could do if the
administration played the
linkage card," said
NJCRAC's Larry Rubin.
"In the future, I hope we
will pay more attention to
what could go wrong and
how to deal with it." ❑
Winners And Losers
A look at the major Ameri-
can Jewish groups that took
part in the loan guarantee
fight — and how they fared.
AIPAC: Monday-morning
quarterbacking has centered
on the American-Israel
Public Affairs Committee
(AIPAC), the lobbying arm
of the pro-Israel community.
Because of its size and its
take-no-prisoners style,
AIPAC has become an in-
viting target for those
parceling out blame for the
loan guarantee loss.
The reality is somewhat
more complex.
AIPAC's notoriously
pragmatic legislative staff
was quietly warning against
overconfidence as early as
July. AIPAC lobbyists were
telling pro-guarantees coali-
tion colleagues that the ad-
ministration might seek
direct linkage — and that
any serious effort by the
White House to tie the guar-
antees to Israel's set-
tlements policies would be
very difficult to counter in
Congress.
But other elements within
AIPAC were implying that
an easier victory was at
hand, according to sources
here.
AIPAC's executive direc-
tor, Tom Dine, was faulted
by some pro-Israel activists
for giving the impression
that the loan guarantee
battle was all but won. But
Mr. Dine was also tireless in
exhorting Jewish groups
around the country to get
involved in the political
battle.
Typically, the criticism of
AIPAC was somewhat con-
tradictory. When the presi-
dent announced his desire
for a delay, many pro-Israel
activists privately expressed
concern that AIPAC would
"cave in" to administration
demands. But after the pres-
ident's Sept. 12 tirade, some
of these same activists com-
plained that AIPAC was
dragging the Jewish com-
munity into a hopeless,
dangerous battle.
There is little question
that AIPAC's reputation for
legislative success has suf-
fered a serious blow.
But analysts point out that
AIPAC was able to turn the
1981 AWACS disaster into a
victory of sorts by successful-
ly punishing key opponents
of their position in the
debate — and using that
punishment as a major
weapon in future battles.
The 1992 elections may
show how well AIPAC can
recover from the loan guar-
antee fight.
The Conference of Pres-
idents of Major American
Jewish Organizations: The
umbrella organization head-
ed by Shoshana Cardin
became the pivotal group in
planning the massive grass-
roots effort in support of the
loan guarantees. So far, pro-
Israel activists have given
the President's Conference
high marks for uniting a
Jewish community that is
far from united on the
critical issue of Israel's set-
tlements policies.
Malcolm Hoenlein, the
group's executive director,
and Mrs. Cardin, its chair,
were credited with working
tirelessly and effectively to
keep the broad coalition
together, despite the
volatility of the settlements
issue.
Mr. Hoenlein and Mrs.
Cardin were also cited by
many Jewish activists as the
most effective advocates for
the loan guarantees in the
media.
But the Conference was
faulted by some pro-Israel
activists for not predicting
the president's passion on
the settlements issue,
despite the group's respon-
sibility for administration
lobbying.
The remarkable unity
forged by the Presidents'
Conference imparted enor-
mous momentum to the
grass-roots pro-guarantees
effort — but it also may have
mislead the Israelis into
thinking that they could win
the loan guarantees even as
they expanded settlements,
according to some observers.
Strained relations with the
administration over the loan
guarantee debate are likely
to make the job of the Presi-
dents' Conference much
more difficult in the days to
come.
National Jewish Com-
munity Relations Ad-