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September 13, 1991 - Image 30

Resource type:
Text
Publication:
The Detroit Jewish News, 1991-09-13

Disclaimer: Computer generated plain text may have errors. Read more about this.

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FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 1991



Iraq's Future Role
In Middle East Politics

Starting from

Natural

two years, a move that will
drastically reduce the poten-
tial for a settlement with
Syria based on exchanging
territory for peace.
There are also said to be
plans for at least doubling
the size of the 80,000-strong
Jewish population in the
West Bank by the end of the
decade and, more urgently,
for quadrupling the size of
the population of Jerusalem,
which constitutes the most
controversial of all ter-
ritorial issues.
While American Jewish
leaders and Israeli activists
prepared a massive lobbying
campaign in favor of the
guarantees, however, there
was diminishing confidence
in Jerusalem that its tradi-
tional support in Congress
would remain solid in light
of the ringing appeal from
the White House.
Whatever the outcome,
Israeli officials believe it is
unlikely that Israel will
back out of the peace con-
ference, a move that would
cost not only the loan guar-
antees but also possibly its
relationship with Washing-
ton.
At the same time, there is
an acknowledgement that
the outcome of this titanic
test of strength could have
profound consequences: Vic-
tory would strengthen
Israel's hand in dealing with
Mr. Baker and enhance its
bargaining position at the
negotiating table; defeat
would weaken Israel and
render it more susceptible to
pressure.

21999

& COVER

ra-J

between Israel and its Arab
neighbors, undermining the
potential for a political
resolution based on ter-
ritorial concessions.
As Israeli peace groups
leaked Housing Ministry
documents indicating plans
for unprecedented set-
tlement activity, Prime Min-
ister Shamir was reported to
have asked Israel's intel-
ligence agencies to keep him
informed of Mr. Sharon's ac-
tivities.
Bulldozers are now re-
ported to be working up to 18
hours a day on sites
throughout the West Bank,
constructing roads and
preparing the ground for the
arrival of prefabricated
houses to accommodate tens
of thousands of new settlers.
According to the mass-
circulation Hebrew-
language daily Yediot
Aharanot, Mr. Sharon's
grand design involves the
establishment of more than
100,000 new homes in the
territories by the end of the
decade at a cost of some $14
million. The plans not only
call for a massive expansion
of existing settlements in
the coming year, but also for
the longer-term creation of a
string of strategically placed
new towns which are in-
tended to irrevocably erase
the old Green Line, Israel's
border before the Six Day
War.
One urgent phase of the
plans involves doubling the
size of the 15,000-strong
Jewish population on the
Golan Heights over the next

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'AMERKAN
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• 11P• •

In a few years, if and when
it has managed to rebuild its
armed forces as well as its
economy and international
relations, Iraq will again
become a central player in
Middle East politics. Its posi-
tions then cannot be
predicted because by then
Iraq may be ruled by a dif-
ferent regime. The fact re-
mains that, since the late
1920s, Iraq's attitude toward
the idea of a Jewish state has
always been as hostile as that
of Syria, and much more
hostile than those of Egypt
and Jordan. -This attitude is
not likely to change radical-
ly even under a new regime.
Yet thanks to the Gulf war, for
a few years Iraq's ability to
harm Israel and to sabotage
the peace process has been
curtailed.
Amatzia Baram, a professor
at Tel Aviv University, author

of Culture, History, and
Ideology in the Formation of
Ba'thist Iraq, 1968-1989 and
one of the world's leading
authorities on Iraq, examines
the effects of the Gulf war on
Iraq and Israel in a newly
released publication titled
Israel and Iraq after the Gulf
War, published by the
American Jewish Committee.
The booklet is one in a series
of AJC papers on interna-
tional perspectives.
Professor Baram notes that
when the Iraq-Iran War end-
ed in August 1988, Iraq had
the largest army in the Mid-
dle East with 1.5 million
soldiers, 700 combat aircraft,
580 helicopters, 6,000 tanks,
5,000 artillery pieces, hun-
dreds of ground-to-ground
missiles capable of reaching
Israel and several score
mobile missile launchers, and
a significant chemical and

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