potential nuclear arsenal.
The Iraqi army had gained
experience — although
limited — during its battle
with Iran, and morale in the
Iraqi armed forces was high.
The damage to Iraq's war
machine as a result of Opera-
tion Desert Storm was heavy,
states Professor Baram, but
not devastating.
Describing the effects of the
Gulf war on Israeli security,
Professor Baram stresses that
"for at least two and possibly
for three or four years, a
▪
significant conventional
threat has been removed .. .
Not only has Iraq ceased to be
an immediate threat but
Syria, which in the past
relied heavily on Iraqi sup-
port in case of war, now also
O ■
poses less of a danger to
Israel.
Describing these tremendous
contributions, Professor
Baram asserts that the prin-
cipal contribution of the war
Ow.- to Israel's security is the
damage done to Iraq's missile,
chemical, biological, and
nuclear war-making capacity.
Another strategic benefit
for Israel as a result of the
Gulf war, she adds, is the
closer strategic cooperation
between the U.S. and Israel.
"But demonstrating Israel's
vulnerability to surface-to-
surface missiles, the war has
given additional impetus to
the development of a medium-
range antimissile missile,
more sophisticated than the
U.S. Patriot."
Other important results in-
clude a growing intimacy be-
tween the Israeli and U.S.
governments in some areas
after a long period of
estrangement and the lessons
learned by the U.S. and the
European powers about Mid-
dle East instability.
A critical lesson drawn from
the war, writes Professor
Baram, was the effectiveness
of Israel's policy of deterrence.
In terms of future Israeli-
Iraqi relations, Professor
Baram notes that since the
end of Operation Desert
Storm, Iraq has been engulf-
ed in a civil war, has been in
grave economic difficulties,
and has been ostracized by
the West. "It is most likely
that Iraq will remain faithful
to its dual-track policy. On the
one hand, Iraqi politicians
and ideologues may be ex-
pected to remind their au-
diences of Iraq's long-term
commitment to the destruc-
tion of Israel. On the other
hand, Iraq is not likely to
raise objection to the peace
process, provided that it in-
volves high-profile participa-
tion of Arafat's PLO and that
it leads to a Palestinian
state." ❑
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